BYU point spread and vegas's poor trends with the pokes

[pokefanchaz7]

Bottom line Vegas was very bad at predicting the cowboys this year. Vegas was wrong about the cowboys games in most sittuations,

Game 1: Northern Illinois: Wyoming was a seven point underdog in this game and Wyoming won by six. This game you have to give a pass to Vegas because we were completely unknown this season and who would have guessed game one would see our offense improve like this.

Game 2: Wyoming was 25 point underdogs to Nebraska and the final score showed they gave the pokes too much credit as we ended up losing by a whopping 35 points. However this game was trending in the cowboys favor until the fourth quarter when everything and I mean everything went to crap. This game was a one score game going into the fourth quarter.

Game 3: UC Davis wyoming was a 22 point favorite and wyoming wins by 23. Vegas was very close to this prediction.

Game 4: Eastern michigan was a 3.5 point underdog in this game and this is the game that we certainly should have won, we were in control of this game and then found a way to lose it. However this trend would continue. The cowboys were the favorite by 3.5 and lost by 3.

Game 5: The border war where wyoming was picked to lose the game by 5.5 points. Wyoming came out with a statement game and beat Colorado State soundly by 21 points and brought home the bronze boot. Vegas was very wrong this day.

Game 6. The undefeated Air Force academy who just came off of their biggest win of the season and had one of the top rushing defenses in the country. Vegas confidently set the spread to a whopping 13 points and wyoming came out and beat Airforce by 9 points. Win again against the spread for the pokes.

Game 7. Wyoming was 7.5 point favorites in reno this game and vegas was pretty close on this one. The pokes won this game by 8 points so vegas wins the day.

Game 8. Big Bad Boise State comes to town having just beat BYU in a game where Boise turned the ball over 5 times and still managed to win. Boise as a 15 point favorite in this game and wyoming came out and beat Boise by two points and got a big win on the season.

Game 9. Vegas thought Utah State would challenge the pokes and set a very conservative point spread at four points in the pokes favor. This game was a blow out and one of the biggest blowouts of the year as the pokes won 52-28 in Laramie.

Game 10. Vegas thought they had the pokes figured out and decided to make them road favorites against a lesser opponent and set the point spread to 7.5 in the pokes favor. The pokes laid an egg in a big way and UNLV won the game in tripple overtime by three points 66-69.

Game 11. Vegas saw the previous game and decided that wyoming would not be able to hang with San Diego State and their vaunted rushing attack and impassible rushing defense. The pokes made another statement on the year and beat top 25 Aztecs by a score of 34-33 and without a desperation throw that was as close to an incomplete pass as can possibly be it would have been 7 points in favor of the pokes.

Game 12. New Mexico was actually an underdog in this game by three points. The most bizarre of all cowboys games with perhaps the exception of UNLV two weeks earlier the pokes could not stop New Mexico to save their collective lives in the first quarter and that was enough to doom the pokes in blowout fashion: Final score 56-35 bad guys.

Onto the mountain west championship game where wyoming was a 7.5 point underdog in the mountain west championship game. Wyoming did not win this game but it was still closer then Vegas predicted as the cowboys lost by one field goal.

The cowboys are a ten point going into this game with BYU. All I can say is that BYU is favored because overall our defensive numbers look very bad. If you remove three games from our statistics they would read out much more favorable but it is what it is. BYU also has a great rush defense and as such should be the odds on favorite in this game.

However: Vegas has been wrong about the outcome of pokes games in 8 of thirteen games saying either the pokes beat their opponent or our opponents beat us and are flat out wrong. They were only right on in their prediction in two games within a point. They were all over the map this season with the pokes.

If I were a betting person then I bet on the pokes in this game because vegas was wrong more then they were right with the pokes this season and I think undervalue us as a whole.

 

[BeaverPoke]

I think you literally just described the Gambler's Fallacy.

 

[pokefanchaz7]

I think you literally just described the Gambler's Fallacy.

What I do know is that sdsu, airforce csu and Boise were our biggest wins of the season and they were also games Wyo was big time dogs going in. With the exception of Nebraska I think we were undefeated in games we were double digit dogs.

I may be seeing things through brown and gold goggles but the same reasons San Diego state airforce and Boise were such heavy dogs was because our rushing defense and there rushing defense and we beat each of those teams by holding them below there avg in rushing and we ran the ball all over them.

We play up when we have a chip on our shoulder and I think they come in with a big chip


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[POKE FAN]

Good post. I was walking through this topic in my head earlier this week. I'm glad you brought this up. I just pray that the double-digit dog Pokes can beat a formidable opponent like BYU and bring home what is likely "THE signature win in the history of Wyoming football."

 

[pokefanchaz7]

Good post. I was walking through this topic in my head earlier this week. I'm glad you brought this up. I just pray that the double-digit dog Pokes can beat a formidable opponent like BYU and bring home what is likely "THE signature win in the history of Wyoming football."

Ba ha ha ha this


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[seattlecowboy]

Vegas doesn't predict anything. They put out a point spread on a game then let the public bet it. They don't care about predicting anything. They put out point spreads to get wagers on the game. Been betting on games for over 20 years.

I wouldn't read too much into what Vegas puts out as a point spread as far as a prediction. A better indicator of which way a game will go is when you find a game with the actual money wagered lopsided to one team but the line moves the opposite direction. It is called reverse line movement.

There is only one place I know of to get the actual money wagered on games but you have to pay for it. It works very well though.

As a side note for this game the line is moving towards BYU with more money wagered on Wyoming by a little bit but nothing too lopsided. So with that info this game could go either way as far as who covers the point spread.

The problem I see in this game is that BYU will have the best defense Wyoming has faced this year other than Nebraska and BYU's QB is actually a really good passer. So there is a good chance this game will come down to whether Wyoming can put any pressure on the BYU QB or not. If not it will be a long day for Wyoming. Let's hope the defense from the 2nd half of the Boise St. game shows up. Problem is we don't have Appleby or May anymore. I'm hoping for a Pokes win but think it will be a tough game. Especially since we haven't played well away from home.

 

[LanderPoke]

Vegas doesn't predict anything. They put out a point spread on a game then let the public bet it. They don't care about predicting anything. They put out point spreads to get wagers on the game. Been betting on games for over 20 years.

I wouldn't read too much into what Vegas puts out as a point spread as far as a prediction. A better indicator of which way a game will go is when you find a game with the actual money wagered lopsided to one team but the line moves the opposite direction. It is called reverse line movement.

There is only one place I know of to get the actual money wagered on games but you have to pay for it. It works very well though.

As a side note for this game the line is moving towards BYU with more money wagered on Wyoming by a little bit but nothing too lopsided. So with that info this game could go either way as far as who covers the point spread.

The problem I see in this game is that BYU will have the best defense Wyoming has faced this year other than Nebraska and BYU's QB is actually a really good passer. So there is a good chance this game will come down to whether Wyoming can put any pressure on the BYU QB or not. If not it will be a long day for Wyoming. Let's hope the defense from the 2nd half of the Boise St. game shows up. Problem is we don't have Appleby or May anymore. I'm hoping for a Pokes win but think it will be a tough game. Especially since we haven't played well away from home.

Is BYU's D really better than SDSU's or Boise's?

 

[pokefanchaz7]

I don't think byu d is any better then sdsu


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[pokecountant]

Vegas doesn't predict anything. They put out a point spread on a game then let the public bet it. They don't care about predicting anything. They put out point spreads to get wagers on the game. Been betting on games for over 20 years.

I wouldn't read too much into what Vegas puts out as a point spread as far as a prediction. A better indicator of which way a game will go is when you find a game with the actual money wagered lopsided to one team but the line moves the opposite direction. It is called reverse line movement.

There is only one place I know of to get the actual money wagered on games but you have to pay for it. It works very well though.

As a side note for this game the line is moving towards BYU with more money wagered on Wyoming by a little bit but nothing too lopsided. So with that info this game could go either way as far as who covers the point spread.

The problem I see in this game is that BYU will have the best defense Wyoming has faced this year other than Nebraska and BYU's QB is actually a really good passer. So there is a good chance this game will come down to whether Wyoming can put any pressure on the BYU QB or not. If not it will be a long day for Wyoming. Let's hope the defense from the 2nd half of the Boise St. game shows up. Problem is we don't have Appleby or May anymore. I'm hoping for a Pokes win but think it will be a tough game. Especially since we haven't played well away from home.

Is BYU's D really better than SDSU's or Boise's?

I'm not sure about how good their defense as a whole is. I know they've got pretty good play from their defensive backs. Kai Nacua in particular. Who I HATE. I hope more than anything that Brian Hill runs his ass over.

 

[pokefanchaz7]

Byu has a very strong run defense but a below avg pass defense. If josh Allen can get the passing game going like Boise and San Diego state then Wyoming will be in this game. We need to open up the run game with the pass. On defense we have to hold them below there avg running and force them to pass. I'm not convinced byu has the talent at wr to beat Wyo in the air.




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[BeaverPoke]

I think you literally just described the Gambler's Fallacy.

What I do know is that sdsu, airforce csu and Boise were our biggest wins of the season and they were also games Wyo was big time dogs going in. With the exception of Nebraska I think we were undefeated in games we were double digit dogs.

I may be seeing things through brown and gold goggles but the same reasons San Diego state airforce and Boise were such heavy dogs was because our rushing defense and there rushing defense and we beat each of those teams by holding them below there avg in rushing and we ran the ball all over them.

We play up when we have a chip on our shoulder and I think they come in with a big chip


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So, because our biggest wins came when we were under dogs makes you think we will win this time too?

I get that you are wearing Brown and Gold goggles, as am I, and I think we can and will beat BYU. But I don't look to the gambling aspect of it to find a trend. I think those are mutually exclusive.

 

[seattlecowboy]

Vegas doesn't predict anything. They put out a point spread on a game then let the public bet it. They don't care about predicting anything. They put out point spreads to get wagers on the game. Been betting on games for over 20 years.

I wouldn't read too much into what Vegas puts out as a point spread as far as a prediction. A better indicator of which way a game will go is when you find a game with the actual money wagered lopsided to one team but the line moves the opposite direction. It is called reverse line movement.

There is only one place I know of to get the actual money wagered on games but you have to pay for it. It works very well though.

As a side note for this game the line is moving towards BYU with more money wagered on Wyoming by a little bit but nothing too lopsided. So with that info this game could go either way as far as who covers the point spread.

The problem I see in this game is that BYU will have the best defense Wyoming has faced this year other than Nebraska and BYU's QB is actually a really good passer. So there is a good chance this game will come down to whether Wyoming can put any pressure on the BYU QB or not. If not it will be a long day for Wyoming. Let's hope the defense from the 2nd half of the Boise St. game shows up. Problem is we don't have Appleby or May anymore. I'm hoping for a Pokes win but think it will be a tough game. Especially since we haven't played well away from home.

Is BYU's D really better than SDSU's or Boise's?

I think BYU has a better D than Boise or SDSU . Does that mean Bohl won't be able to come up with a way to move the ball? No, we could have a great game plan. Just think it is going to be tougher honestly. I want to beat BYU as bad as anyone but we are probably going to need to put up points because I am not sure if we will get much pressure into the backfield on them. Would help a lot if we still had May and Appleby but hopefully the guys with the extra practices can step up and play well and Stanard can somehow come up with a good scheme for this game.

 

[seattlecowboy]

There is actually a lot of BYU money coming in now which is a good in the fact that it is better to be the team with a lot less money wagered on them. Don't like the fact the line is moving towards BYU but the fact they are getting lopsided with BYU money is a good thing for Wyoming. Means Wyoming has a good chance to cover and maybe win outright. Here is a piece of an article on covers.com

http://www.covers.com/Articles/Six-...ing-sportsbooks-sweat-this-bowl-season/481761


Poinsettia Bowl: Brigham Young Cougars vs. Wyoming Cowboys (-9.5)

This is the next bowl game on tap this week, with a 9 p.m. Eastern kickoff on Wednesday night from San Diego. BYU (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) has been good against the linemakers all season long, going 4-1 ATS in its last five games while winning its last four SU.

Wyoming is 8-5 SU and ATS, but lost three of its last four (2-2 ATS). The Cowboys got blasted 56-35 as a 3-point chalk at New Mexico, then lost the Mountain West Conference title game on its home field, 27-24 to San Diego State as a 7-point home ‘dog.

“So far, the public and the sharps are on the same side,” said Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point. “Definitely, our rooting interest is for Wyoming right now. You never know, it might swing back. I think this will be a fun game. The total is 57, which is not real high, but certainly not low.”

At this point, the game will certainly be more fun for Andrews and his shop if Wyoming wins, a sentiment echoed a few miles up Las Vegas Boulevard at Wynn Las Vegas.

“BYU opened up an 8-point favorite, that game is up to 10,” said Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for the Wynn. “It’s pretty one-sided. Things can change, but that’s where we’re at right now. By game time, who knows?”

 

[CowboyNV]

BYU has the nation's 9th best rated rushing defense, allowing 3.38 yards per carry. SDSU has the nation's 6th best rushing defense allowing 3.08 yards per carry (UW rushed for 205 yards the first game, and just 95 yards in the second). Air Force has the nation's 15th best rushing defense, allowing 3.41 yards per carry (UW rushed for 191 against AFA).

BYU's pass defense is rated #100 and allows 256 yards per game. In comparison, Utah State is #11 (UW passed for 261 yards), CSU is #21 (UW passed for 165 yards), Boise St. is #27 (UW passed for 274 yards), SDSU is #47 (UW passed for 282 and 248 yards in those two games), New Mexico is #62 (UW passed for 248 yards), UNLV is #83 (UW passed for 334 yards), and Air Force is #93 (UW passed for 173 yards).

While stout on the ground, their pass defense looks to be about as porous as Wyoming's. I believe Hill goes off for 130+ yards, and I think if Allen has the time, he is going to feast on their secondary, and the Pokes win going away.

 

[seattlecowboy]

BYU has the nation's 9th best rated rushing defense, allowing 3.38 yards per carry. SDSU has the nation's 6th best rushing defense allowing 3.08 yards per carry (UW rushed for 205 yards the first game, and just 95 yards in the second). Air Force has the nation's 15th best rushing defense, allowing 3.41 yards per carry (UW rushed for 191 against AFA).

BYU's pass defense is rated #100 and allows 256 yards per game. In comparison, Utah State is #11 (UW passed for 261 yards), CSU is #21 (UW passed for 165 yards), Boise St. is #27 (UW passed for 274 yards), SDSU is #47 (UW passed for 282 and 248 yards in those two games), New Mexico is #62 (UW passed for 248 yards), UNLV is #83 (UW passed for 334 yards), and Air Force is #93 (UW passed for 173 yards).

While stout on the ground, their pass defense looks to be about as porous as Wyoming's. I believe Hill goes off for 130+ yards, and I think if Allen has the time, he is going to feast on their secondary, and the Pokes win going away.

BYU played a lot better teams than AFA or Utah St. or SDSU did on their schedule. So that's the difference. I think Wyoming can move the ball though.

 

[pokefanchaz7]

BYU has the nation's 9th best rated rushing defense, allowing 3.38 yards per carry. SDSU has the nation's 6th best rushing defense allowing 3.08 yards per carry (UW rushed for 205 yards the first game, and just 95 yards in the second). Air Force has the nation's 15th best rushing defense, allowing 3.41 yards per carry (UW rushed for 191 against AFA).

BYU's pass defense is rated #100 and allows 256 yards per game. In comparison, Utah State is #11 (UW passed for 261 yards), CSU is #21 (UW passed for 165 yards), Boise St. is #27 (UW passed for 274 yards), SDSU is #47 (UW passed for 282 and 248 yards in those two games), New Mexico is #62 (UW passed for 248 yards), UNLV is #83 (UW passed for 334 yards), and Air Force is #93 (UW passed for 173 yards).

While stout on the ground, their pass defense looks to be about as porous as Wyoming's. I believe Hill goes off for 130+ yards, and I think if Allen has the time, he is going to feast on their secondary, and the Pokes win going away.

BYU played a lot better teams than AFA or Utah St. or SDSU did on their schedule. So that's the difference. I think Wyoming can move the ball though.

I don't know that they played a much tougher schedule. They played more high profile teams but they only played two bowl teams this season and one of those bowl teams was 5-7.


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[pokefanchaz7]

BYU has the nation's 9th best rated rushing defense, allowing 3.38 yards per carry. SDSU has the nation's 6th best rushing defense allowing 3.08 yards per carry (UW rushed for 205 yards the first game, and just 95 yards in the second). Air Force has the nation's 15th best rushing defense, allowing 3.41 yards per carry (UW rushed for 191 against AFA).

BYU's pass defense is rated #100 and allows 256 yards per game. In comparison, Utah State is #11 (UW passed for 261 yards), CSU is #21 (UW passed for 165 yards), Boise St. is #27 (UW passed for 274 yards), SDSU is #47 (UW passed for 282 and 248 yards in those two games), New Mexico is #62 (UW passed for 248 yards), UNLV is #83 (UW passed for 334 yards), and Air Force is #93 (UW passed for 173 yards).

While stout on the ground, their pass defense looks to be about as porous as Wyoming's. I believe Hill goes off for 130+ yards, and I think if Allen has the time, he is going to feast on their secondary, and the Pokes win going away.

BYU played a lot better teams than AFA or Utah St. or SDSU did on their schedule. So that's the difference. I think Wyoming can move the ball though.

I don't know that they played a much tougher schedule. They played more high profile teams but they only beat two bowl teams this season and one of those bowl teams was 5-7.

Utah, and West Virginia, and Toledo are the only "really good" teams that I see on that schedule. Ole miss was probably their signature win and they only won 5 games this season.


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[Arizona Trojan]

BYU has the nation's 9th best rated rushing defense, allowing 3.38 yards per carry. SDSU has the nation's 6th best rushing defense allowing 3.08 yards per carry (UW rushed for 205 yards the first game, and just 95 yards in the second). Air Force has the nation's 15th best rushing defense, allowing 3.41 yards per carry (UW rushed for 191 against AFA).

BYU's pass defense is rated #100 and allows 256 yards per game. In comparison, Utah State is #11 (UW passed for 261 yards), CSU is #21 (UW passed for 165 yards), Boise St. is #27 (UW passed for 274 yards), SDSU is #47 (UW passed for 282 and 248 yards in those two games), New Mexico is #62 (UW passed for 248 yards), UNLV is #83 (UW passed for 334 yards), and Air Force is #93 (UW passed for 173 yards).

While stout on the ground, their pass defense looks to be about as porous as Wyoming's. I believe Hill goes off for 130+ yards, and I think if Allen has the time, he is going to feast on their secondary, and the Pokes win going away.

BYU played a lot better teams than AFA or Utah St. or SDSU did on their schedule. So that's the difference. I think Wyoming can move the ball though.

I don't know that they played a much tougher schedule. They played more high profile teams but they only beat two bowl teams this season and one of those bowl teams was 5-7.

Utah, and West Virginia, and Toledo are the only "really good" teams that I see on that schedule. Ole miss was probably their signature win and they only won 5 games this season.


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BYU didn't play Ole Miss.

 

[pokefanchaz7]

BYU has the nation's 9th best rated rushing defense, allowing 3.38 yards per carry. SDSU has the nation's 6th best rushing defense allowing 3.08 yards per carry (UW rushed for 205 yards the first game, and just 95 yards in the second). Air Force has the nation's 15th best rushing defense, allowing 3.41 yards per carry (UW rushed for 191 against AFA).

BYU's pass defense is rated #100 and allows 256 yards per game. In comparison, Utah State is #11 (UW passed for 261 yards), CSU is #21 (UW passed for 165 yards), Boise St. is #27 (UW passed for 274 yards), SDSU is #47 (UW passed for 282 and 248 yards in those two games), New Mexico is #62 (UW passed for 248 yards), UNLV is #83 (UW passed for 334 yards), and Air Force is #93 (UW passed for 173 yards).

While stout on the ground, their pass defense looks to be about as porous as Wyoming's. I believe Hill goes off for 130+ yards, and I think if Allen has the time, he is going to feast on their secondary, and the Pokes win going away.

BYU played a lot better teams than AFA or Utah St. or SDSU did on their schedule. So that's the difference. I think Wyoming can move the ball though.

I don't know that they played a much tougher schedule. They played more high profile teams but they only beat two bowl teams this season and one of those bowl teams was 5-7.

Utah, and West Virginia, and Toledo are the only "really good" teams that I see on that schedule. Ole miss was probably their signature win and they only won 5 games this season.


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BYU didn't play Ole Miss.

We know who I meant [emoji12] regardless they weren't very good


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[bladerunnr]

Byu lost to Utah, UClA, West Virginia, and Boise state by a combined total of 8 points. They played a far tougher schedule than we did. My fear is that they dominate us at the line of scrimmage. Having said that, I did bet us - but frankly- it was a bet made more with my heart than my head. Also, I think there is a hunger factor with bowl games. Sometimes, it's apparent that some teams play like they wish they weren't there. I'm hoping our players are excited to be in a nationally televised game against a well known team.

My general rule of thumb regarding who to bet is this: What are the most likely outcomes? I could see us losing a close game, winning a close game, or getting blown out. I can't see us blowing them out. No one beat them by more than 3 points all year. Based on that, I would generally take BYU. But I think we have 2 players, Hill and Allen, who just might will us to a win.