Basketball in the Home Stretch

With the tournament a few weeks away I took some time to break down tournament scenarios. First, the elephant in the room, this has been a disappointing season for men's basketball. However, the team has shown enough this season to make me believe that there are some ways for them to make noise in Vegas this year. Before we get into any of that, though, here are the current standings and remaining games for the conference.



To break it down team by team:

1. New Mexico - They've got Air Force and UNLV at home, both of whom they beat on the road. They had a tough time with Nevada at home, so it should be an interesting road game. Still, I think the Lobos win out and take the 1 seed.
2. Utah State - With 2 games left they've still got a shot at the 1 seed. Going to Fort Collins is going to be tough. If they can win that game they've got a good shot at taking the 1 seed. If they lose they'll likely fall to the 3 seed.
3. Colorado State - The sheep probably have the toughest remaining schedule. Getting Utah State at home is good, but ending on the road at Boise is going to be rough. They will beat San Jose State, but if they lose to Utah State and Boise State they will likely drop to the 5 seed.
4. San Diego State - A down year for the Tecs based on recent history, but they have a favorable schedule. As much as I hate to say it, they'll beat Wyoming and Nevada handily. UNLV isn't going to be an easy win, but even if they drop that they'll likely stay in the 4 seed.
5. Boise State - They'll roll in Fresno and Colorado Springs, but the sheep at home for the last game could have big implications. Win and they could be as high as the 3 seed. Lose and they'll stay at 5.
6. UNLV - There's a clear dividing line between the good teams and the mediocre here. The Rebels get Nevada and SDSU at home, and could win both. I doubt they'll beat New Mexico on the road. At any rate, they are likely locked into the 6 seed.
7. Nevada - Brutal schedule to end the year. I have a hard time seeing any wins for them.
8. San Jose State - They will likely beat Fresno State, but the sheep will destroy them.
9. Wyoming - San Diego State is at home, so there's a chance. However, this team has been ice cold on offense for several games now. They need to get out of their funk to have any hope for more wins this year.
10. Air Force - It's not going to get any easier for the Falcons with 3 of the top 5 teams being their last 3 games.
11. Fresno State - Fresno will likely beat one of Wyoming or San Jose, which will move them up to the 11 seed.

The Cowboys are going to have to right the ship in a hurry if they want to be playing after March 12. Unfortunately, even if they win their first game they likely get New Mexico in the 2nd round. The Lobos are a bad matchup for the Pokes, and will likely end their season.