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At large chances.....

Here is how I see it, 1 or possibly 2 teams get into the NCAA.

MWC Title & Tournament winners unless one of those two are SDSU. If SDSU wins they are already looking at an at large bid unless they fall apart this month it's all but locked. If they also win the title or tournament that bid won't go to someone else in the MWC it will just go to another team conference.

If SDSU wins the title and the tournament they will be the only team to get in. If Wyoming, BSU or CSU wins the conference title I think there is hope for them to get in but only those 3 teams have a chance and it has to be an outright title win not a split.

That is how I think it will come down because it has in the past following those same lines. So we have a chance if we win out and CSU/BSU/SDSU all slip but we have to be 100% clear title winner splitting with SDSU won't give us anything except a warm feeling.
 
I feel the same way about our at-large chances being almost gone not sitting right with me.

If Wyo were to win the MWC Regular season championship and not win the tourney how could we not get in?

Oh, because our OOC schedule ranked in the 300s? Those 13 games are all of a sudden more important than the 18 it takes to win the MWC Championship? Meanwhile teams like SDSU and CSU and Boise might be in. Those 3 teams have Top 50 RPIs, yet WE would be the team that went the brutal 18 game schedule and came out on top. BUT, because our 13 game OOC was weak we don't get in.

Seems to me that they get so obsessed with every minor detail that the computers can spit out and fail to open their eyes and look at who the best teams are in reality.
 
Sadly yes, IF we won the regular season title but didn't win the tourney, IMO we would not be in the Dance; we haven't done enough to deserve to be. We'd at least get an auto berth to the NIT I guess....
 
WestWYOPoke said:
Sadly yes, IF we won the regular season title but didn't win the tourney, IMO we would not be in the Dance; we haven't done enough to deserve to be. We'd at least get an auto berth to the NIT I guess....
Click to expand...

In my opinion, winning the 18 game conference schedule is doing enough.

Coming out on top of the 18 game schedule is more impressive than winning a 3 game tourney. Again, that's just my opinion and not the NCAA selection committee's opinion.

Seems like every year there is some 15-17 team who was bad all year, got hot for 3 games and got in the Dance meanwhile, a Wyo team who can potentially win out regular season, win MWC Regular season, win 2 Tourney games, lose in championship game and finish 27-7 would have not done enough to get in. But the 15-17 team? The 20-10 Pac12 teams? THEY did enough.
 
Normally, I would agree with you 100%. However this year is different as the conference is so down compared to years past. Winning the title would mean beating out SDSU which would be impressive; the downside is that we wouldn't have beat SDSU to achieve it. Besides them, there aren't any other strong programs in the conference this year. By strong I mean, 2-4 bubble teams like year's past that beating would help our cause. Sadly, a 20-10 team in the Pac-12 is going to get a lot better look because that conference is considerably stronger this year.

Frankly put, winning the MW this year isn't going to be that big of an accomplishment in the eyes of the people that matter come Selection Sunday.


MWC RPI rank: 12

Pac-12 RPI rank: 5
 
I did a little messing around with rpi forecast. If we win out(which we would need to do to win the conference) and won two games in the tournament(somewhat randomly picked beat Nevada in quarters and beat CSU in the semis, lose to SDSU in champ) we would have an RPI of 48. That is more than good enough to get in the tournament. I think if we lost in the semi's to CSU we would be around 60-so not sitting in a good spot but still with a chance.

So it isn't going to be easy to get in without winning the tournament, I think it is possible but why don't we just win it and remove all doubt.

I think we put too much reliance on RPI. Hearing the commitee talk they say they use more than the RPI. It is one of their tools. I think they RPI is used like a first pass elimination like anyone with a worse RPI than 65(or 70 or 60, i don't know) isn't really considered and ones in that range are looked at more closely. I think this could help us as we are a better team than our RPI indicates and are drug down by a couple of truely awful teams while the rest of our schedule is decent.
 
BeaverPoke said:
WestWYOPoke said:
Sadly yes, IF we won the regular season title but didn't win the tourney, IMO we would not be in the Dance; we haven't done enough to deserve to be. We'd at least get an auto berth to the NIT I guess....
Click to expand...

In my opinion, winning the 18 game conference schedule is doing enough.

Coming out on top of the 18 game schedule is more impressive than winning a 3 game tourney. Again, that's just my opinion and not the NCAA selection committee's opinion.

Seems like every year there is some 15-17 team who was bad all year, got hot for 3 games and got in the Dance meanwhile, a Wyo team who can potentially win out regular season, win MWC Regular season, win 2 Tourney games, lose in championship game and finish 27-7 would have not done enough to get in. But the 15-17 team? The 20-10 Pac12 teams? THEY did enough.
Click to expand...


That's up to the individual conferences though, as far as I know. The Ivy league, for example, does not hold a conference tournament but rather assigns the auto bid to the regular season champion.

Even if the MWC assigned it that way, we would have almost no shot considering we would lose the tiebreaker to SDSU. We probably have a better shot at earning the autobid MWC style (MWCT) than we would Ivy League style (regular season champ) this year.
 
TSpoke said:
I did a little messing around with rpi forecast. If we win out(which we would need to do to win the conference) and won two games in the tournament(somewhat randomly picked beat Nevada in quarters and beat CSU in the semis, lose to SDSU in champ) we would have an RPI of 48. That is more than good enough to get in the tournament. I think if we lost in the semi's to CSU we would be around 60-so not sitting in a good spot but still with a chance.

So it isn't going to be easy to get in without winning the tournament, I think it is possible but why don't we just win it and remove all doubt.

I think we put too much reliance on RPI. Hearing the commitee talk they say they use more than the RPI. It is one of their tools. I think they RPI is used like a first pass elimination like anyone with a worse RPI than 65(or 70 or 60, i don't know) isn't really considered and ones in that range are looked at more closely. I think this could help us as we are a better team than our RPI indicates and are drug down by a couple of truely awful teams while the rest of our schedule is decent.
Click to expand...


A RPI of 48 in that scenario is good enough to get in, but it is not good enough to be a lock. There have been plenty of example in recent years of teams with RPI's higher than that being left out (USM twice, Toledo, etc.) and what they all have in common are low SOS numbers (100-150). Our final SOS is projected to be 183. I don't believe there has ever been an at-large team with a SOS even close to that.

Having said that, I would love to be in that conversation. Obviously I want us to win the MWCT, but if are sitting here in a few weeks at 27-7, I will be thrilled with our team regardless of what the selection committee thinks. That is a definite "first world" problem in the context of our recent program history. Being snubbed would suck, but being functionally out of the conversation for 12 straight years has sucked way worse.
 
NowherePoke said:
TSpoke said:
I did a little messing around with rpi forecast. If we win out(which we would need to do to win the conference) and won two games in the tournament(somewhat randomly picked beat Nevada in quarters and beat CSU in the semis, lose to SDSU in champ) we would have an RPI of 48. That is more than good enough to get in the tournament. I think if we lost in the semi's to CSU we would be around 60-so not sitting in a good spot but still with a chance.

So it isn't going to be easy to get in without winning the tournament, I think it is possible but why don't we just win it and remove all doubt.

I think we put too much reliance on RPI. Hearing the commitee talk they say they use more than the RPI. It is one of their tools. I think they RPI is used like a first pass elimination like anyone with a worse RPI than 65(or 70 or 60, i don't know) isn't really considered and ones in that range are looked at more closely. I think this could help us as we are a better team than our RPI indicates and are drug down by a couple of truely awful teams while the rest of our schedule is decent.
Click to expand...


A RPI of 48 in that scenario is good enough to get in, but it is not good enough to be a lock. There have been plenty of example in recent years of teams with RPI's higher than that being left out (USM twice, Toledo, etc.) and what they all have in common are low SOS numbers (100-150). Our final SOS is projected to be 183. I don't believe there has ever been an at-large team with a SOS even close to that.

Having said that, I would love to be in that conversation. Obviously I want us to win the MWCT, but if are sitting here in a few weeks at 27-7, I will be thrilled with our team regardless of what the selection committee thinks. That is a definite "first world" problem in the context of our recent program history. Being snubbed would suck, but being functionally out of the conversation for 12 straight years has sucked way worse.
Click to expand...

If it weren't for Luke and Larry, we could be sitting at a CBI, NIT, Big Dance, or even CBI, Big Dance, Big Dance, not 3 CBIs. We haven't been out of the conversation entirely. We have been fucked by bad luck. That shit has got to change NOW. Beat Nevada, get Larry healthy, get some luck with SDSU losing a couple games, and we got this. WE GOT THIS!
 
BeaverPoke said:
NowherePoke said:
TSpoke said:
I did a little messing around with rpi forecast. If we win out(which we would need to do to win the conference) and won two games in the tournament(somewhat randomly picked beat Nevada in quarters and beat CSU in the semis, lose to SDSU in champ) we would have an RPI of 48. That is more than good enough to get in the tournament. I think if we lost in the semi's to CSU we would be around 60-so not sitting in a good spot but still with a chance.

So it isn't going to be easy to get in without winning the tournament, I think it is possible but why don't we just win it and remove all doubt.

I think we put too much reliance on RPI. Hearing the commitee talk they say they use more than the RPI. It is one of their tools. I think they RPI is used like a first pass elimination like anyone with a worse RPI than 65(or 70 or 60, i don't know) isn't really considered and ones in that range are looked at more closely. I think this could help us as we are a better team than our RPI indicates and are drug down by a couple of truely awful teams while the rest of our schedule is decent.
Click to expand...


A RPI of 48 in that scenario is good enough to get in, but it is not good enough to be a lock. There have been plenty of example in recent years of teams with RPI's higher than that being left out (USM twice, Toledo, etc.) and what they all have in common are low SOS numbers (100-150). Our final SOS is projected to be 183. I don't believe there has ever been an at-large team with a SOS even close to that.

Having said that, I would love to be in that conversation. Obviously I want us to win the MWCT, but if are sitting here in a few weeks at 27-7, I will be thrilled with our team regardless of what the selection committee thinks. That is a definite "first world" problem in the context of our recent program history. Being snubbed would suck, but being functionally out of the conversation for 12 straight years has sucked way worse.
Click to expand...

If it weren't for Luke and Larry, we could be sitting at a CBI, NIT, Big Dance, or even CBI, Big Dance, Big Dance, not 3 CBIs. We haven't been out of the conversation entirely. We have been fucked by bad luck. That shit has got to change NOW. Beat Nevada, get Larry healthy, get some luck with SDSU losing a couple games, and we got this. WE GOT THIS!
Click to expand...

NO BEAV!!! Those are only excuses. We should be in the big dance year in and year out like Duke. Don't use excuses. People don't like when you do. Or I do. Either way, they don't like excuses; big dance or bust!
 
kansasCowboy said:
BeaverPoke said:
NowherePoke said:
TSpoke said:
I did a little messing around with rpi forecast. If we win out(which we would need to do to win the conference) and won two games in the tournament(somewhat randomly picked beat Nevada in quarters and beat CSU in the semis, lose to SDSU in champ) we would have an RPI of 48. That is more than good enough to get in the tournament. I think if we lost in the semi's to CSU we would be around 60-so not sitting in a good spot but still with a chance.

So it isn't going to be easy to get in without winning the tournament, I think it is possible but why don't we just win it and remove all doubt.

I think we put too much reliance on RPI. Hearing the commitee talk they say they use more than the RPI. It is one of their tools. I think they RPI is used like a first pass elimination like anyone with a worse RPI than 65(or 70 or 60, i don't know) isn't really considered and ones in that range are looked at more closely. I think this could help us as we are a better team than our RPI indicates and are drug down by a couple of truely awful teams while the rest of our schedule is decent.
Click to expand...


A RPI of 48 in that scenario is good enough to get in, but it is not good enough to be a lock. There have been plenty of example in recent years of teams with RPI's higher than that being left out (USM twice, Toledo, etc.) and what they all have in common are low SOS numbers (100-150). Our final SOS is projected to be 183. I don't believe there has ever been an at-large team with a SOS even close to that.

Having said that, I would love to be in that conversation. Obviously I want us to win the MWCT, but if are sitting here in a few weeks at 27-7, I will be thrilled with our team regardless of what the selection committee thinks. That is a definite "first world" problem in the context of our recent program history. Being snubbed would suck, but being functionally out of the conversation for 12 straight years has sucked way worse.
Click to expand...

If it weren't for Luke and Larry, we could be sitting at a CBI, NIT, Big Dance, or even CBI, Big Dance, Big Dance, not 3 CBIs. We haven't been out of the conversation entirely. We have been fucked by bad luck. That shit has got to change NOW. Beat Nevada, get Larry healthy, get some luck with SDSU losing a couple games, and we got this. WE GOT THIS!
Click to expand...

NO BEAV!!! Those are only excuses. We should be in the big dance year in and year out like Duke. Don't use excuses. People don't like when you do. Or I do. Either way, they don't like excuses; big dance or bust!
Click to expand...

CBI 3 years in a row suck though. And for me it is definitely Big Dance or bust this year. And it should be that way from now on. Shyatt didn't leave Gainseville to become a CBI and NIT mainstay.
 
NowherePoke said:
laxwyo said:
Not going to need to worry about it playing like this
Click to expand...

Yeah, this thread is nothing but humorous now.
Click to expand...

Losing to Nevada will mean absolutely no shot at an at large bid. Zero, zip, nada. Time maybe for Burman to get out the checkbook so he can pay the CBI entry fee. As Cutt said, "No Nance, No Chance."
 
CowboyNV said:
NowherePoke said:
laxwyo said:
Not going to need to worry about it playing like this
Click to expand...

Yeah, this thread is nothing but humorous now.
Click to expand...

Losing to Nevada will mean absolutely no shot at an at large bid. Zero, zip, nada. Time maybe for Burman to get out the checkbook so he can pay the CBI entry fee. As Cutt said, "No Nance, No Chance."
Click to expand...
We didn't have a chance when the game started. We never stood a chance of an at large bid. Our pre-conference season hurt us and losing to AF and USU nailed the door shut. Its been over for weeks
 
CowboyNV said:
NowherePoke said:
laxwyo said:
Not going to need to worry about it playing like this
Click to expand...

Yeah, this thread is nothing but humorous now.
Click to expand...

Losing to Nevada will mean absolutely no shot at an at large bid. Zero, zip, nada. Time maybe for Burman to get out the checkbook so he can pay the CBI entry fee. As Cutt said, "No Nance, No Chance."
Click to expand...

I take it all back. We are winning the MWC!

Once again, I have the emotional maturity of a 3 year old. Just sit back and enjoy the ride as I swing from life altering depression to irrational exuberance in the span of an hour. Also, I am completely sober.
 
The fact that the Pokes have the easiest schedule of any MWC team hurts the at-large scenario even more no matter if we win out - or not.
 
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