IMO, a lot hinges on unlv (they're likely gone), AF (who knows but I'll bet if aac, we lose another), and to a lesser extent unm (no idea but could see a scenario where they're packaged with AF for the aac or are they a potential pac target?)
Nobody is going to want to join the mwc dumpster fire without some big buyout contracts from those 3 and I doubt they want to do that. They're the next 3 out.
Every other remaining mwc team is irrelevant and are unlikely to hold a conference together unless enough fcs teams decide they can and want to make the jump.
We assume utep and nmsu will join but I'm not so sure especially if unm leaves. Hell, the aac may decide to have 9 in the west and 9 in the east. There won't be much revenue anyway so stability and regionalism may be more important?
West would be:
North TX
Rice
Tulsa
Utsa
Af
Unm
Utep
Nmsu
Tulane
I'm not saying what will happen but there are lots of possibilities. The mwc next 3 out are critical to any chance at survival unless we can use all the buyout and convince the Dakotas, the Montanas, and like oredigger pointed out sac state or something. Hell, maybe idaho?