6-7 wins per year would be amazing!

[ragtimejoe1]

Using final year end sagarin rankings, the stat that concerns me is that we are 3-20 against teams that finish in the top 60 sagarin rankings during Bohl era. We are 4-21 against teams in the top 75.

2016 is the only year we beat teams that ended up in the top 60 or top 75.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Very informative graph! Shows that the two biggest impacts on the program: (1) the Black 14; and (2) the Koenning years. Bohl is the first coach since Dimel to put the Wyoming program at an average historical level, very interesting.

Or perhaps ND leaving the CFA in 91 (after ncaa vs. OK) and CBS getting the SEC in 96 which ended the CFA in 97 and kicked off the conference races for TV money.

Coincidentally the Big 12 forms leading to wac 16 debacle and ultimately the MWC in late 90s. Regardless, TV markets began driving the CFB bus and the separation of p5 and g5 began. The arms race was off and our budget/small TV market deficiencies amplified.

In 2010, realignment hits again and greatly weakens the strength of the MWC. As a result, we are now playing lower budget teams and we have a weaker SOS.

I'm not sure what has the most significant effect but much more complex than Black 14 and VK, imo.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

Very informative graph! Shows that the two biggest impacts on the program: (1) the Black 14; and (2) the Koenning years. Bohl is the first coach since Dimel to put the Wyoming program at an average historical level, very interesting.

Or perhaps ND leaving the CFA in 91 (after ncaa vs. OK) and CBS getting the SEC in 96 which ended the CFA in 97 and kicked off the conference races for TV money.

Coincidentally the Big 12 forms leading to wac 16 debacle and ultimately the MWC in late 90s. Regardless, TV markets began driving the CFB bus and the separation of p5 and g5 began. The arms race was off and our budget/small TV market deficiencies amplified.

In 2010, realignment hits again and greatly weakens the strength of the MWC. As a result, we are now playing lower budget teams and we have a weaker SOS.

I'm not sure what has the most significant effect but much more complex than Black 14 and VK, imo.

307bball has shown to be impressive with numbers. The graph could likely be normalized fairly easily factoring in SOS numbers. One would have to make sure that the SOS numbers themselves were normalized because the amount of teams competing at the highest level of NCAA football has continued to increase. In any event, I tend to believe the big dips from the historical averages will still be Black 14 and the Koenning years even with this SOS calibration. I tend to believe what Craig Bohl has done with the program will still appear very favorably with the normalized numbers.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

Very informative graph! Shows that the two biggest impacts on the program: (1) the Black 14; and (2) the Koenning years. Bohl is the first coach since Dimel to put the Wyoming program at an average historical level, very interesting.

Or perhaps ND leaving the CFA in 91 (after ncaa vs. OK) and CBS getting the SEC in 96 which ended the CFA in 97 and kicked off the conference races for TV money.

Coincidentally the Big 12 forms leading to wac 16 debacle and ultimately the MWC in late 90s. Regardless, TV markets began driving the CFB bus and the separation of p5 and g5 began. The arms race was off and our budget/small TV market deficiencies amplified.

In 2010, realignment hits again and greatly weakens the strength of the MWC. As a result, we are now playing lower budget teams and we have a weaker SOS.

I'm not sure what has the most significant effect but much more complex than Black 14 and VK, imo.

307bball has shown to be impressive with numbers. The graph could likely be normalized fairly easily factoring in SOS numbers. One would have to make sure that the SOS numbers themselves were normalized because the amount of teams competing at the highest level of NCAA football has continued to increase. In any event, I tend to believe the big dips from the historical averages will still be Black 14 and the Koenning years even with this SOS calibration. I tend to believe what Craig Bohl has done with the program will still appear very favorably with the normalized numbers.

I should note - finding SOS numbers prior to about 2000 may be really difficult. I'm not sure if there is a database out there that has already done the work dating to the 60s.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

I should note - finding SOS numbers prior to about 2000 may be really difficult. I'm not sure if there is a database out there that has already done the work dating to the 60s.

I guess the main point is that I think much more than b14 or vk had significant impacts on the direction of the program. TV rights and the arms race killed small market schools. Realignment had major impacts on our standings. Lots of external forces played a role... some measurable and some not.

Regarding SOS, Bohl has struggled against better teams (see stats above). How that compares to other WYO coaches, I have no idea. However, beating a bunch of cupcakes is a function of scheduling not program advancement.

I too like the direction of the program under Bohl. Still a long ways to go. Getting to where we can beat top 75 teams is a start.

 

[307bball]

I should note - finding SOS numbers prior to about 2000 may be really difficult. I'm not sure if there is a database out there that has already done the work dating to the 60s.

I guess the main point is that I think much more than b14 or vk had significant impacts on the direction of the program. TV rights and the arms race killed small market schools. Realignment had major impacts on our standings. Lots of external forces played a role... some measurable and some not.

Regarding SOS, Bohl has struggled against better teams (see stats above). How that compares to other WYO coaches, I have no idea. However, beating a bunch of cupcakes is a function of scheduling not program advancement.

I too like the direction of the program under Bohl. Still a long ways to go. Getting to where we can beat top 75 teams is a start.

I imagine all of our head coaches have struggled against better teams, it would surprise me greatly if opponent strength had no correlation with win probability......and i'm in complete agreement w/you that program success and SOS don't have to correlate.

Your point about things like conference realignment and TV rights affecting UW football depresses me greatly and I fear there is a lot of truth to it. If I had it to do over again I would probably wait to make this thread until the off-season and I definitely would NOT have called 6-7 wins "amazing" :lol:

As far as further analysis incorporating SOS...I'll let somebody else drive that bus. As a Cowboy's fan who has not seen the level off success that we are having right now in my adult lifetime, i just wanted to provide some historical perspective. I know that a lot of you were cheering at the War during the late '80's and early '90's but those years are barely a memory for a lot of us middle-age and younger fans. We are very happy w/Craig and company (who wouldn't be when you have '98-on to compare it to). I do hope he continues to get better though. Hopefully the factors described by ragtime are not too much to surmount.

 

[calpoke25]

6-7 wins a year would be amazing? Gawd no wonder we put up with this dog shit offense.

Bohl is being paid and football in general is being funded at the top of the conference. Our facilities and pay say we should be competing for championships, not settling for 6-7 wins a year. WTF did we drop 200 million on football facilities for if we’re just happy with 6 wins?

Where in the hell are you getting this from??? Bohl is #4 for head coaches salaries in the MWC, which puts him in the mid-70s for all of FBS. Not sure how Wyoming football compares in the conference as I can't find numbers on that anywhere, but the athletic department as a whole sits 10th out of 12 in expenses, ahead of only Utah State and San Jose State.

Edit: did some more digging and found the actual numbers for football for the 2017 season. Wyoming was 8th in the conference in football budget, and 5th for coaching staff budgets. (Bohl is #4 for head coach)

I don’t have time to look it up right now but I believe in 2018 Bohl moved into the top 3 in compensation and both our coordinators were in the top 5 overall coordinators paid in the conference. I believe that coupled with all the facility improvements lead me to believe we are funding football at a level where we should be setting higher standards than 6-6, 7-5, namely competing for championships. If we aren’t competing for championships, and we aren’t this year, we are not getting a proper ROI. I’m OK with not winning them, but to basically have championship aspirations to be over by mid October due to complete incompetence on one side of the ball is not ideal.

 

[fromolwyoming]

6-7 wins a year would be amazing? Gawd no wonder we put up with this dog shit offense.

Bohl is being paid and football in general is being funded at the top of the conference. Our facilities and pay say we should be competing for championships, not settling for 6-7 wins a year. WTF did we drop 200 million on football facilities for if we’re just happy with 6 wins?

Where in the hell are you getting this from??? Bohl is #4 for head coaches salaries in the MWC, which puts him in the mid-70s for all of FBS. Not sure how Wyoming football compares in the conference as I can't find numbers on that anywhere, but the athletic department as a whole sits 10th out of 12 in expenses, ahead of only Utah State and San Jose State.

Edit: did some more digging and found the actual numbers for football for the 2017 season. Wyoming was 8th in the conference in football budget, and 5th for coaching staff budgets. (Bohl is #4 for head coach)

I don’t have time to look it up right now but I believe in 2018 Bohl moved into the top 3 in compensation and both our coordinators were in the top 5 overall coordinators paid in the conference. I believe that coupled with all the facility improvements lead me to believe we are funding football at a level where we should be setting higher standards than 6-6, 7-5, namely competing for championships. If we aren’t competing for championships, and we aren’t this year, we are not getting a proper ROI. I’m OK with not winning them, but to basically have championship aspirations to be over by mid October due to complete incompetence on one side of the ball is not ideal.

RBs and o-line are certainly doing well. I wouldn't say they're incompetent.

But yeah, passing game is about non-existent, and its on both the QB and WRs.

 

[Asmodeanreborn]

But yeah, passing game is about non-existent, and its on both the QB and WRs.

I'd say it's on the coaching. We've had 6 or 7 3 Star+ QBs come through here during the Bohl era, all being at least decent passers in high school. You'd expect at least one or two to have decent numbers, but nope.

Look at what Allen's figured out in just a year with NHL coaching. He can actually throw screens and short passes now.

 

[BackHarlowRoad]

Definitely wouldn't say 6 wins per year would be "amazing", but if 6 wins made us feel like it was a disappointing season, that'd be fantastic.

...and I think if that happened this year we would be disappointed.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

Definitely wouldn't say 6 wins per year would be "amazing", but if 6 wins made us feel like it was a disappointing season, that'd be fantastic.

...and I think if that happened this year we would be disappointed.

6 wins would be a big letdown following the win over Missouri. But I predicted 5 wins in the pre-season. I did not foresee the young offensive and defensive lines playing to the level that they have. Anything over 7 wins and I will be thrilled in retrospect. That said, let's just win the MWC.

 

[307bball]

Definitely wouldn't say 6 wins per year would be "amazing", but if 6 wins made us feel like it was a disappointing season, that'd be fantastic.

...and I think if that happened this year we would be disappointed.

6 wins would be a big letdown following the win over Missouri. But I predicted 5 wins in the pre-season. I did not foresee the young offensive and defensive lines playing to the level that they have. Anything over 7 wins and I will be thrilled in retrospect. That said, let's just win the MWC.

Heck yeah!

When you zoom back and take in the trend of the program...it is definitely good. From a game to game perspective though...I was pretty high after Missouri and pretty low after struggling to put freaking Idaho away. In preseason, I too predicted 5 wins....looks like they'll outperform that (barring a complete meltdown).

 

[laxwyo]

Definitely wouldn't say 6 wins per year would be "amazing", but if 6 wins made us feel like it was a disappointing season, that'd be fantastic.

...and I think if that happened this year we would be disappointed.

6 wins being a huge letdown would be a great place to be

 

[HR_Poke]

But yeah, passing game is about non-existent, and its on both the QB and WRs.

I'd say it's on the coaching. We've had 6 or 7 3 Star+ QBs come through here during the Bohl era, all being at least decent passers in high school. You'd expect at least one or two to have decent numbers, but nope.

Look at what Allen's figured out in just a year with NHL coaching. He can actually throw screens and short passes now.

Chambers seems to have regressed under vigen, and josh got significantly better after getting out from under vigen. I think his QB coaching seems questionable at this juncture.

 

[WyoBrandX]

Definitely wouldn't say 6 wins per year would be "amazing", but if 6 wins made us feel like it was a disappointing season, that'd be fantastic.

...and I think if that happened this year we would be disappointed.

6 wins being a huge letdown would be a great place to be

I agree. If I could go the rest of my life knowing that the floor is 6 wins vs say, 1, I'd be happy. I'd be ecstatic if we could expect 8-9 wins / year on average.

I was pretty young in the 80's and don't remember alot of the heydays there. I was in HS during the tiller era - and was focused on playing football myself. Kinda sucks, but as and adult, I've been pulling for a team that hadn't won 8 games or had 3 winning seasons until Craig Bohl took over.

I get really pissed off at our offense the last 2 years. Thats okay though, when the right players are in place, the thing can really click. And I think we are finally starting to see some depth form across all positions.

Things are bright!