2023 Recruiting: Late Signing Period

[Itsux2beaewe]

What qualifies as "interest" these days?

Great question. I have a reliable source tied to a head coach in college basketball who reached out to Ike once he entered the portal. He said his price was $500k. Don’t know what he’ll get, and this is a SEC school, but their interest was short lived.

 

[Wyovanian]

What qualifies as "interest" these days?

Great question. I have a reliable source tied to a head coach in college basketball who reached out to Ike once he entered the portal. He said his price was $500k. Don’t know what he’ll get, and this is a SEC school, but their interest was short lived.

My two cents- most of these guys are overestimating their value based on early, and somewhat sensational stories about NIL deals. From an investment standpoint, NIL offers are very poor offering little upside to "big money" sponsors. Collectives are another thing altogether, but that leads to an eggs-in-a-basket scenario. As this goes forward, more likely than not, rather than a financial arms race, this thing is going to cool off as the flow gets ratcheted back based on poor returns and highly unpredictable results. It's a short to medium-term problem for smaller schools. The water will eventually seek its own level...

 

[flyfishwyo]

Great question. I have a reliable source tied to a head coach in college basketball who reached out to Ike once he entered the portal. He said his price was $500k. Don’t know what he’ll get, and this is a SEC school, but their interest was short lived.

My two cents- most of these guys are overestimating their value based on early, and somewhat sensational stories about NIL deals. From an investment standpoint, NIL offers are very poor offering little upside to "big money" sponsors. Collectives are another thing altogether, but that leads to an eggs-in-a-basket scenario. As this goes forward, more likely than not, rather than a financial arms race, this thing is going to cool off as the flow gets ratcheted back based on poor returns and highly unpredictable results. It's a short to medium-term problem for smaller schools. The water will eventually seek its own level...

I think you nailed it. Big donors aren't going to want to continue to invest in a pay-for-play system. They already donate a bunch to the school.

 

[Wyovanian]

My two cents- most of these guys are overestimating their value based on early, and somewhat sensational stories about NIL deals. From an investment standpoint, NIL offers are very poor offering little upside to "big money" sponsors. Collectives are another thing altogether, but that leads to an eggs-in-a-basket scenario. As this goes forward, more likely than not, rather than a financial arms race, this thing is going to cool off as the flow gets ratcheted back based on poor returns and highly unpredictable results. It's a short to medium-term problem for smaller schools. The water will eventually seek its own level...

I think you nailed. Big donors aren't going to want to continue to invest in a pay-for-play system. They already donate a bunch to the school.

Unless they start making them sign contracts where they can claw back or withhold payments until performance is proven, the cash will evaporate pretty quickly. Once the athletes realize they're actually sharing the risk, they'll be a lot more deliberative and thoughtful about the whole thing...

 

[Bryoming]

COMMITTED TO MILWAUKEE
https://twitter.com/CbbhoopsUpdates/status/1645618209125531648

 

[LawPoke]

I think you nailed. Big donors aren't going to want to continue to invest in a pay-for-play system. They already donate a bunch to the school.

Unless they start making them sign contracts where they can claw back or withhold payments until performance is proven, the cash will evaporate pretty quickly. Once the athletes realize they're actually sharing the risk, they'll be a lot more deliberative and thoughtful about the whole thing...

I hadn't thought of the NIL world through this lens. I think that you are spot on. Once the risk profile shifts, players won't be as enamored with big deals - and the risk will shift. The money is too big. It will certainly provide positive incentives - markets always do. But it will also come with performance demands. For anyone that has been put through a quarterly performance briefing with a board of directors or CEO, when things are going well, the presentation is sunshine, posies and fun and the rewards are great. When they are not, the experience can be akin to a root canal or colonoscopy without the benefit of anesthesia. These young people should look at their coaches and what they go through...it will be similar to the scrutiny and second guessing that they will soon experience. For those on this board and in the Twitterverse that don't like those of us online and elsewhere that "call out individual kids" - buckle up. Things are only now heating up in that space. When you enter the adulting world of investment, returns, and performance - it is a cold, nasty, brutish place. You want to go about adulting...go ahead, buttercup. But don't come crying when things go sideways and the mob comes looking for you.

 

[307bball]

Unless they start making them sign contracts where they can claw back or withhold payments until performance is proven, the cash will evaporate pretty quickly. Once the athletes realize they're actually sharing the risk, they'll be a lot more deliberative and thoughtful about the whole thing...

I hadn't thought of the NIL world through this lens. I think that you are spot on. Once the risk profile shifts, players won't be as enamored with big deals - and the risk will shift. The money is too big. It will certainly provide positive incentives - markets always do. But it will also come with performance demands. For anyone that has been put through a quarterly performance briefing with a board of directors or CEO, when things are going well, the presentation is sunshine, posies and fun and the rewards are great. When they are not, the experience can be akin to a root canal or colonoscopy without the benefit of anesthesia. These young people should look at their coaches and what they go through...it will be similar to the scrutiny and second guessing that they will soon experience. For those on this board and in the Twitterverse that don't like those of us online and elsewhere that "call out individual kids" - buckle up. Things are only now heating up in that space. When you enter the adulting world of investment, returns, and performance - it is a cold, nasty, brutish place. You want to go about adulting...go ahead, buttercup. But don't come crying when things go sideways and the mob comes looking for you.

This take is interesting but it's not the correct way to look at NIL money and it's affects. NIL will largely not displace money from big donors or program boosters... It takes the place of "suitcase" money. That money never had an ROI. In the past, if you wanted to help get a good recruit to your school there was no legal way to directly enrich the player. Yet that type of enrichment definitely went on. There really is no market force acting on NIL expenditures that would tamp the stuff you are seeing down.

 

[LawPoke]

I hadn't thought of the NIL world through this lens. I think that you are spot on. Once the risk profile shifts, players won't be as enamored with big deals - and the risk will shift. The money is too big. It will certainly provide positive incentives - markets always do. But it will also come with performance demands. For anyone that has been put through a quarterly performance briefing with a board of directors or CEO, when things are going well, the presentation is sunshine, posies and fun and the rewards are great. When they are not, the experience can be akin to a root canal or colonoscopy without the benefit of anesthesia. These young people should look at their coaches and what they go through...it will be similar to the scrutiny and second guessing that they will soon experience. For those on this board and in the Twitterverse that don't like those of us online and elsewhere that "call out individual kids" - buckle up. Things are only now heating up in that space. When you enter the adulting world of investment, returns, and performance - it is a cold, nasty, brutish place. You want to go about adulting...go ahead, buttercup. But don't come crying when things go sideways and the mob comes looking for you.

This take is interesting but it's not the correct way to look at NIL money and it's affects. NIL will largely not displace money from big donors or program boosters... It takes the place of "suitcase" money. That money never had an ROI. In the past, if you wanted to help get a good recruit to your school there was no legal way to directly enrich the player. Yet that type of enrichment definitely went on. There really is no market force acting on NIL expenditures that would tamp the stuff you are seeing down.

I dunno. At some point, those that are paying these huge NIL contracts are going to expect something in return - and a dinner with the team or ticket to a bowl won't do it. Perhaps the Athletic Departments will feel it first - the coach or whomever said "get me this much money so I can bring in Timmy". Maybe that guy gets questioned about why they wanted Timmy to get cash. But eventually, Timmy himself will start to get pressure. If Timmy is making several mil to start at Florida and is stinking up the joint, Timmy will be under immense pressure to perform or lose his deal.

 

[Itsux2beaewe]

Not basketball, but these NIL deals are starting at a young age.

12 year old golfer inks a NIL deal.

Crazy!

https://www.si.com/golf-archives/2022/05/28/cobra-puma-signs-nil-deal-12-year-old

 

[307bball]

This take is interesting but it's not the correct way to look at NIL money and it's affects. NIL will largely not displace money from big donors or program boosters... It takes the place of "suitcase" money. That money never had an ROI. In the past, if you wanted to help get a good recruit to your school there was no legal way to directly enrich the player. Yet that type of enrichment definitely went on. There really is no market force acting on NIL expenditures that would tamp the stuff you are seeing down.

I dunno. At some point, those that are paying these huge NIL contracts are going to expect something in return - and a dinner with the team or ticket to a bowl won't do it. Perhaps the Athletic Departments will feel it first - the coach or whomever said "get me this much money so I can bring in Timmy". Maybe that guy gets questioned about why they wanted Timmy to get cash. But eventually, Timmy himself will start to get pressure. If Timmy is making several mil to start at Florida and is stinking up the joint, Timmy will be under immense pressure to perform or lose his deal.

Well...to the extent the money is coming from the "suitcase" cash crowd I don't think any return will be expected. Those types that are enriching SEC NIL's and Texas NIL's are just happy to be able to funnel money above board.

To the extent that It's an actual entity looking for a spokesperson or something....then yes...Some sort of ROI will be expected. But that ROI is very hard to pin down. Whatever you pay somebody like Lebron James or Steph Curry can almost never be too much...but the vast majority of that money .... not sure how effective it is.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

I dunno. At some point, those that are paying these huge NIL contracts are going to expect something in return - and a dinner with the team or ticket to a bowl won't do it. Perhaps the Athletic Departments will feel it first - the coach or whomever said "get me this much money so I can bring in Timmy". Maybe that guy gets questioned about why they wanted Timmy to get cash. But eventually, Timmy himself will start to get pressure. If Timmy is making several mil to start at Florida and is stinking up the joint, Timmy will be under immense pressure to perform or lose his deal.

Well...to the extent the money is coming from the "suitcase" cash crowd I don't think any return will be expected. Those types that are enriching SEC NIL's and Texas NIL's are just happy to be able to funnel money above board.

To the extent that It's an actual entity looking for a spokesperson or something....then yes...Some sort of ROI will be expected. But that ROI is very hard to pin down. Whatever you pay somebody like Lebron James or Steph Curry can almost never be too much...but the vast majority of that money .... not sure how effective it is.

I don’t buy this. Anyone spending significant money will expect some sort of return. Finish last in the conference in a season of high expectations and well paid players and you will see right away how fast that money spigot gets shut off…

 

[307bball]

Well...to the extent the money is coming from the "suitcase" cash crowd I don't think any return will be expected. Those types that are enriching SEC NIL's and Texas NIL's are just happy to be able to funnel money above board.

To the extent that It's an actual entity looking for a spokesperson or something....then yes...Some sort of ROI will be expected. But that ROI is very hard to pin down. Whatever you pay somebody like Lebron James or Steph Curry can almost never be too much...but the vast majority of that money .... not sure how effective it is.

I don’t buy this. Anyone spending significant money will expect some sort of return. Finish last in the conference in a season of high expectations and well paid players and you will see right away how fast that money spigot gets shut off…

Anybody prediction that the $$ spigot gets anywhere close to shut off in college athletics is definitely not thinking clearly. I would love it if boosters suddenly find religion and stop shoveling cash into programs at levels that will never be matched at Wyoming but I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for it. And predictions that this latest way that money is ruining college athletics is just a short lived phenomenon that will pass once calmer heads prevail is the height of naivete.

The best players will get paid and the "market" will only get better at identifying them. It's obvious that transfers will be a thing at every school.... But for Wyoming, it will be a net loss of talent. The door to any success is closing fast if it's not shut already.

 

[Bryoming]

Today marks the first day of the late signing period. Hopefully we'll start to see some commitments roll in soon.

 

[Bryoming]

Tweet from last night:

https://twitter.com/7220sports/status/1645941490206773248

 

[OrediggerPoke]

Tweet from last night:

https://twitter.com/7220sports/status/1645941490206773248

That’s concerning. I hope we don’t just fill the team with bodies and tie up all the schollies. This is a multi-year rebuild.

 

[Bryoming]

Tweet from last night:

https://twitter.com/7220sports/status/1645941490206773248

That’s concerning. I hope we don’t just fill the team with bodies and tie up all the schollies. This is a multi-year rebuild.

I mean, he's trying to fill essentially the entire roster. I tend to believe he's hosting recruits to do just that.

 

[doreno5]

That’s concerning. I hope we don’t just fill the team with bodies and tie up all the schollies. This is a multi-year rebuild.

I mean, he's trying to fill essentially the entire roster. I tend to believe he's hosting recruits to do just that.

No use having a press conference until you have all of the slots filled. Players are still shopping themselves to other teams looking for the best offer/ opportunity they can garner. I will curious to see how many players, if any , come from Power 5 conferences v. smaller schools.

 

[LawPoke]

I mean, he's trying to fill essentially the entire roster. I tend to believe he's hosting recruits to do just that.

No use having a press conference until you have all of the slots filled. Players are still shopping themselves to other teams looking for the best offer/ opportunity they can garner. I will curious to see how many players, if any , come from Power 5 conferences v. smaller schools.

Agreed. I hope Linder has adapted to the new realities of being a HC in the transfer and NIL era. He really has no choice.

 

[PokeTransplant]

No use having a press conference until you have all of the slots filled. Players are still shopping themselves to other teams looking for the best offer/ opportunity they can garner. I will curious to see how many players, if any , come from Power 5 conferences v. smaller schools.

Agreed. I hope Linder has adapted to the new realities of being a HC in the transfer and NIL era. He really has no choice.

Still, it would be refreshing for coach to take this opportunity to "open the kimono" so to speak and take control of the narrative as to what really happened, and his plan going forward. Is he really looking to just grab warm bodies as a stopgap, or is he going to play the long game with regards to re-building the program? I have very low expectations for next year, but would like to at least hear the plan for getting the fans excited for Cowboy basketball again.

 

[LawPoke]

Agreed. I hope Linder has adapted to the new realities of being a HC in the transfer and NIL era. He really has no choice.

Still, it would be refreshing for coach to take this opportunity to "open the kimono" so to speak and take control of the narrative as to what really happened, and his plan going forward. Is he really looking to just grab warm bodies as a stopgap, or is he going to play the long game with regards to re-building the program? I have very low expectations for next year, but would like to at least hear the plan for getting the fans excited for Cowboy basketball again.

No question. I'm not sure how I would play it if I was Linder. I would be primarily concerned about getting the class signed. What I don't know is whether a public mea culpa would help or hurt.

In any event, based on my initial rummaging through the names of those we are targeting - it looks like we are looking for any port in the storm. O/U for wins next year: 11.5