2014-2015 Expectations

[WYCowboy]

I don't think WYO has enough proven depth to expect a top 2 MW finish, even with Nance at 100%. Currently I am expecting top 4 finish and to be playing on friday night at the MW tournament, assuming Larry is able to regain his form by conference season.

So no different that last season?
:thumbdown:

As Nowherepoke already pointed out, we finished tied for 5th last year, so top 4 would be an improvement. But the team is still to me very unproven. Who can we really count on, right now, besides Adams, Cooke, Grabau, Hank, and Larry (if healthy, big if)? We have more talent, but who has proven themselves at this level yet? Who would you trust outside of those 5 on the road at the Pit, or at the T and M or at Vejas, or even in Boise right now? Don't underestimate the value of having veterans like Sobey and Granberry on the roster. Who fills in those type of roles?

Now I hope that you are right and the improved talent steps up and becomes what we want it to. But to expect it before seeing anything yet? Too premature. We were 9-9 last year, even with a healthy Larry we were 8-5. To be top 2 in the MW will require 4 losses or less. Where does that come from?

The team has the potential to be top 2, if everything falls into place, but that's a pretty big IF right now. I also agree with the poster that we will probably drop an OOC game or two most people think we shouldn't because I do think it will take Larry some time to work his way back during the OOC portion of the schedule with a lot of unproven talent.

From what I saw (the last two seasons), our starter's legs got tired about halfway through conference season (partly due to a loss of Martinez and then Nance) mainly due to a lack of quality depth at some key positions. I agree that some of that depth is unproven, but I believe this coaching staff will have most if not all of these players ready to give our starters some good rest during this season. I don't think our conference record the last two seasons have any bearing on this season.

 

[NowherePoke]

Nance's health is the key to this season. Before I ruptured my Achilles, I saw the team practice/work out over at half acre a few times. Here are my observations.

Nance: I didn't see him do any drills, but he is walking around just fine and looks like he can jump fine. He's definitely thicker than in the past, I actually believe 235 pounds.
Cooke: He was knocking down threes pretty consistently. It looks like his shot has improved like it has each year. I think we'll see him become a more reliable free throw shooter this year which could be huge. He's ripped, but he's still skinny.
Grabau: He was knocking down threes like crazy in the drill I watched. He's going to be similar to last year where he will consistently make the smart play and knock down the open three.
Adams: He is a freak of nature. His three point shot was inconsistent, but he is really good at the pull-up two. His free throw shooting was perfect.
Hankerson: I was playing with him when I ruptured my Achilles. He's still a huge dude with decent quickness. He was knocking down threes alright, but his shot is still a little awkward like last year. I think he'll be very important to the success of this team as a role player/5th starter.
McManamen: He is bigger this year, not quite so skinny. He may push for a big role with the team as he looks more ready physically.

The freshman class
Herndon: He is still skinny, but he isn't a twig like last year. He looks like he'll have enough strength to take advantage of his length and provide some depth.
Barnes: This dude is jacked. He looks more like 6'7" or 6'8" to me, but he is a specimen. I think the fact he is huge makes him look shorter than he is. I didn't get to see him in drills.
Gorski: Decent build and has a good shot. He was getting frustrated in a drill over missing his threes.
Jones: The dude looks 6'6" and well built. He was doing a post drill and was clearly exhausted. It was very cool to see Granberry jump in and push him along as a grad assistant.
Lieberman: He looks like any other 6'1" white dude with curly hair. I didn't get to see him do any drills.
Williams: Didn't see any drills but he is big enough to contribute right away.

Thanks for the info. I expect to see Adams take charge of this team on the floor. His stretch at the end of the season after Nance's injury was very reminiscent of Nance's production at the end of his sophomore season when you could see him taking over the team. I wouldn't be surprised if Adams, not Nance, led the team in scoring this year.

 

[NowherePoke]

I don't think WYO has enough proven depth to expect a top 2 MW finish, even with Nance at 100%. Currently I am expecting top 4 finish and to be playing on friday night at the MW tournament, assuming Larry is able to regain his form by conference season.

So no different that last season?
:thumbdown:

As Nowherepoke already pointed out, we finished tied for 5th last year, so top 4 would be an improvement.

Yep like I said in the very next post.

And as for the senior leadership thing, we have Larry Nance who is the biggest leader on the team, Grabau, Hankerson, and Cooke.

4 seniors compared to the 2, and 1 who was only in the program for 1 season, and the other who was in the program for 2 seasons. That's a combined 3 years in the program, and only 1 prior to last year.

Larry Nance has 3 by himself. As does Grabau. Cooke has 2. Hankerson has 1.
Adams who is a junior will be a 3rd year starter.

We have leadership, and that is not an issue, it is going to be a more senior lead team than in the last 5 years, if not 10 years.

That is one thing this team will have. I can't remember the last time we had a veteran core that had this much cumulative experience together. The closest was probably 02-03, before Bailey was injured. That starting unit had a combined 7 years of starting experience and 10 years with the program. This year's team has a combined 7 years of starting experience (2 for Grabau, 2 for Adams, 2 for Nance, and 1 for Cooke) with 12 years of experience in the program (3 for Grabau and Nance, 2 for Adams and Cooke, and 2 for Hankerson including his transfer year).

Pulled from the 14-15 Prospectus:

Games Started (Since 1984-85)
1. Fennis Dembo 1985-88 128
2. Brandon Ewing 2006-09 125
3. Eric Leckner 1985-88 116
4. Josh Davis 1999-02 115
5. Jay Straight 2002-05 110
6. HL Coleman 1994-97 104
Tim Breaux 1989-92 104
8. Reginald Slater 1989-92 101
9. Marcus Bailey 2000-03 95
10. Chris McMillian 1999-03 94
11. Uche Nsonwu-Amadi 2001-03 88
Jeron Roberts 1995-98 88
13. Brad Jones 2006-08 84
14. JayDee Luster 2010-12 81
15. Theo Ratliff 1992-95 78
16. Adam Waddell 2009-12 77
Riley Grabau 2012-14 63
Larry Nance Jr. 2012-14 59
Josh Adams 2013-14 58


By the end of this season, barring injuries, we will have 3 players on this team in the Top 15 all-time for games started at UW. Obviously seasons are longer now than in the 60's and 70's and freshman are more likely to play, but by any measure this will be one of the more experienced starting lineups we have had at UW.

 

[calpoke25]

From what I saw (the last two seasons), our starter's legs got tired about halfway through conference season (partly due to a loss of Martinez and then Nance) mainly due to a lack of quality depth at some key positions. I agree that some of that depth is unproven, but I believe this coaching staff will have most if not all of these players ready to give our starters some good rest during this season. I don't think our conference record the last two seasons have any bearing on this season.

Of course last years record has no bearing on this years record. I was simply giving a frame of reference. We finished 9-9. We were 8-5 with Larry. To be top 2 in the MW will require cutting the # of conference losses down to about 4 I would guess, and we already suffered 5 with Larry.

Looking at the conference schedule we have 9 games against UNM, SDSU, BSU, UNLV, @CSU, @ Fresno that I would put as a toss up or underdog right now. To be top 2 MW would require us to probably go something like 6-3 through those games and there will likely be another hiccup somewhere along the conference road. It usually happens in MW play. Is it possible, yes? Would I expect it right now? No.

 

[BeaverPoke]

Those games started stats are interesting.
If Wyo makes some runs in the MWCT and make the Big Dance/Nit the next two seasons, Adams may end up starting more games than anyone in the history of UW Cowboy Basketball.

 

[WYCowboy]

From what I saw (the last two seasons), our starter's legs got tired about halfway through conference season (partly due to a loss of Martinez and then Nance) mainly due to a lack of quality depth at some key positions. I agree that some of that depth is unproven, but I believe this coaching staff will have most if not all of these players ready to give our starters some good rest during this season. I don't think our conference record the last two seasons have any bearing on this season.

Of course last years record has no bearing on this years record. I was simply giving a frame of reference. We finished 9-9. We were 8-5 with Larry. To be top 2 in the MW will require cutting the # of conference losses down to about 4 I would guess, and we already suffered 5 with Larry.

Looking at the conference schedule we have 9 games against UNM, SDSU, BSU, UNLV, @CSU, @ Fresno that I would put as a toss up or underdog right now. To be top 2 MW would require us to probably go something like 6-3 through those games and there will likely be another hiccup somewhere along the conference road. It usually happens in MW play. Is it possible, yes? Would I expect it right now? No.

I completely understand what you are saying. You can't just pencil us in to be a top 2 MW right now, however we had 3 OT games against the top 3 in the conference last season (if I remember right off the top of my head - 2 against NMex & 1 against UNLV) which we might have won with more quality depth and if we had not been without Martinez & Nance. We also beat the #1 MW team last season. We have one more year of experience this season and I believe (hope) more quality depth. What I'm saying is I believe we have a good shot to be in the top 2 MW this season.

 

[wyopig]

Our 5 MWC losses before the Nance injury were 1 possession games in the final 30 seconds of regulation. Several came down to the last shot. Conversely, we won a couple one possession games in there as well. Let's look at the 1 possession losses:

@ Nevada - they're going to suck this year
New Mexico & @ New Mexico - they'll be competitive, but not very good this year
@ Fresno - they might be pretty good this year
@ UNLV - Until Dave Rice shows me that he's not the worst coach in America, I say we have a pretty good shot in Vegas.

Also, aside from the game at CSU - which we would have been significantly more competitive in if it weren't our first game without Nance - there's no doubt in my mind that we would have won AT LEAST 4 of the last 5 games of the season. We may have lost the game at CSU, but we sure as hell would not have lost at home to Air Force, Boise, or at Utah State.

Based on past performance and returning players, the 4 best teams in the MWC this year are probably Wyoming, SDSU, Boise State, and maybe Fresno State. I really think that Wyoming, SDSU, and Boise are the class of the league this year. I'd offer this as my prediction:

1. Wyoming
2. SDSU
3. Boise State
4. Fresno State
5. UNLV
6. New Mexico
7. CSU
8. Air Force
9. Utah State
10. Nevada
11. SJSU

 

[TSpoke]

I expect to win the conference because I am a Wyoming fan and I am extremely excited for this season. Does that mean I will be upset with the team if they don't? No. I will be dissapointed if we are not in the top 3 and in the NCAA. I think some of our younger guys who redshirted will really suprise. I am excited to see what they can bring especially Herndon.

 

[stymeman]

2 or 3 is where i see us, pending no bad injuries or setbacks, UNLV lost alot of Key players, UNM will be down as well, losing the twin towers, tinkerbell(Greenwood's all that's really left), and SDSU X was a huge factor to their success, CSU will be better, but there's absolutely NO reason we can't throw our name in the ring as well.
I'm excited, we'll know early where we'll be!!!!

 

[aranderson]

There should be no reason we lose more than 5 or 6 games this season. We should be in the hunt for the regular season championship to the very end, and no reason we can't or shouldn't make it to the championship game on our way to the Tournament making it to the sweet 16. Just my thoughts and two cents.

 

[BeaverPoke]

There should be no reason we lose more than 5 or 6 games this season. We should be in the hunt for the regular season championship to the very end, and no reason we can't or shouldn't make it to the championship game on our way to the Tournament making it to the sweet 16. Just my thoughts and two cents.

This. +1

 

[kansasCowboy]

As much as I'm excited about this team, we have to remember we were 17-9 before losing Nance. I think we have potential, but we need to remember as good as the recruiting seemed, it doesn't mean anything till they prove it on the court. Remember without Nance we only won one game. Even with Adams, Sobey and Grabau stepping up. I think an amazing year this year would be 23-8. But we're just a nagging knee injury away from 18-15 or worse.

 

[wyopig]

We were 17-9 before Nance went down with 8 of those losses being decided by a possession in the final 30 seconds. A couple wins happened that way as well.

 

[stymeman]

I'm truly excited for this season, and I see good things upcoming