13 games to go...What is it going to take?

[WilyWapiti]

Looking at our hopes for an at-large bid.
We sit at 15-3, 4-1 in the conference. I ran the RPI calculator, and even if we finish out 10-3 with our only losses @SDSU, @NM, @UNLV), we have a projected RPI of #52. 25-6, 14-4, in a down-ish conference.

Is that enough for an at-large bid? If the conference was better this year, I think so, but if that is the best we can do, a one-and-done or 1-1 at the tourney, I think we are on the outside looking in.

With that finish, I think we have to make it to the Championship game to guarantee ourselves a tournament bid, otherwise we're on the bubble hoping for help.

WW

 

[TSpoke]

Looking at our hopes for an at-large bid.
We sit at 15-3, 4-1 in the conference. I ran the RPI calculator, and even if we finish out 10-3 with our only losses @SDSU, @NM, @UNLV), we have a projected RPI of #52. 25-6, 14-4, in a down-ish conference.

Is that enough for an at-large bid? If the conference was better this year, I think so, but if that is the best we can do, a one-and-done or 1-1 at the tourney, I think we are on the outside looking in.

With that finish, I think we have to make it to the Championship game to guarantee ourselves a tournament bid, otherwise we're on the bubble hoping for help.

WW

I tend to agree. If we can finish with that record we will be solidly on the bubble and very possibly on the outside of it. it would come down to how we do in the conference tourney and how the 14-4 record stacks up in conference. If we were somehow 1st place with 14-4 that would help our chances but I doubt 14-4 will win conference at least alone.

 

[LanderPoke]

Looking at our hopes for an at-large bid.
We sit at 15-3, 4-1 in the conference. I ran the RPI calculator, and even if we finish out 10-3 with our only losses @SDSU, @NM, @UNLV), we have a projected RPI of #52. 25-6, 14-4, in a down-ish conference.

Is that enough for an at-large bid? If the conference was better this year, I think so, but if that is the best we can do, a one-and-done or 1-1 at the tourney, I think we are on the outside looking in.

With that finish, I think we have to make it to the Championship game to guarantee ourselves a tournament bid, otherwise we're on the bubble hoping for help.

WW

I think we would get in. We cracked the top 25 and have a semi-national name in Larry Nance Jr. I know that these things don't show up in the RPI, BPI, SOS numbers, but I do think having a good rep and positive national perception doesn't hurt when it comes down to deciding between two teams with comparable resumes.

 

[seattlecowboy]

That is about where we will need to be to get an at large bid.

We can't have any bad losses and it would help if we could win one of those road games.

If we have that record and win two tournament games we will probably get in.

RPI only matters so much but you do need to have your rpi in the 50's to have a chance especially with our OOC SOS.

Top 25 ranking doesn't matter at all. Teams have been left out before that were ranked. See SMU last year.

Need to win the rest of our home games and I honestly do not see anyone else in the conference that will beat us at home. San Diego St. had the defense to do it , no one else plays defense anywhere close to them. New Mexico is smoke and mirrors in conference right now. They aren't that good. They will lose lots of road games in my opinion. I think two games that may make or break us is this game on Saturday at Fresno St. We need a win there bad and then the game @ New Mexico. I think we will beat the Lobos at home but if we could somehow steal one from them there we could have a decent chance at an at large assuming we don't have any bad losses.

 

[Cosmic Cowboy]

That is about where we will need to be to get an at large bid.

We can't have any bad losses and it would help if we could win one of those road games.

If we have that record and win two tournament games we will probably get in.

RPI only matters so much but you do need to have your rpi in the 50's to have a chance especially with our OOC SOS.

Top 25 ranking doesn't matter at all. Teams have been left out before that were ranked. See SMU last year.

Need to win the rest of our home games and I honestly do not see anyone else in the conference that will beat us at home. San Diego St. had the defense to do it , no one else plays defense anywhere close to them. New Mexico is smoke and mirrors in conference right now. They aren't that good. They will lose lots of road games in my opinion. I think two games that may make or break us is this game on Saturday at Fresno St. We need a win there bad and then the game @ New Mexico. I think we will beat the Lobos at home but if we could somehow steal one from them there we could have a decent chance at an at large assuming we don't have any bad losses.

I agree with all of this. If we can do what SDSU couldn't and win at Fresno that's gonna be a huge boost going forward. A loss there would be a bad loss unless Fresno stays top 4 in conference. We need to win in Utah St too and must stay undefeated at home. I'm not sure we can pull it all off, but I'm going to force myself into believing. We're just the type of team that is gonna be a lot of close ones and sometimes you lose those games at the buzzer or by a miss/to.

 

[calpoke25]

Read some of NowherePoke's posts recently about this subject. He included great examples of teams similar to us last year that were left out. Barring a 15-3 conference record with a road win @SDSU, we won't be in the mix for an at large bid. I think that hope died on Wednesday barring some kind of scorching finish to the season. Honestly right now feels like this team will finish around 12-6 in conference the way they are playing right now. Top 25 ranking doesn't mean anything to the selection committee with a SOS in the 300s.