Looking at the brackets for the MWC Tourney coming up and hoping to win out and get a #6 or #7 seed. The winner of the #8 and #9 seed game will face SDSU in the quarter finals. I'd like to play New Mexico in the quarters and then hit Boise State or SDSU in the Semi's - better route. Last year was no cake walk, getting first round bye and then playing Utah State, then Boise State and then SDSU. Thoughts?
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Wyoming DOES NOT WANT #8 or #9 Seed
- Thread starter davidwyo
- Start date
BeaverPoke
Well-known member
As of now the standings are:
6. UNLV --
7. CSU .5 game back
8. WYO 1
9. USU 1.5
10. AFA 2
11. SJSU 3.5
(--) UNLV has 3 games left: @boise, vsWYO, @sdsu
(.5) CSU has 4 games left: vs New Mexico, @Nevada, @fresno, vsAFA
(1) WYO has 3 games left: vsSDSU, @unlv, vs SJSU
(1.5) USU has 4 games left: @Nevada, vsSJSU, @AFA, vs Fresno
If New Mexico beats CSU, Wyo and CSU will be tied for 7th/8th.
But since we swept the sheep, we would be in 7th. In CSU's remaining 3 games after that, with 2 on the road vs teams in the top half of the MW, I don't see them gaining a full game on us.
It then comes down to WYO and UNLV for the battle for 6th. Odds are, SDSU beat both of us, meaning, we have two games to gain 1 game on them. Fortunately, one of those 2 games is against.... UNLV.
Then it comes down to us beating SJSU at home on senior day- and I am going to call that a win. I know with this team there is no such thing as automatic win, but on Josh Adams final home game vs the worst team in the conference, I am counting it.
With all that said, it comes down to CSU losing one then us matching the rest of the way with them. Then it falls on us beating UNLV in Vegas for the 6th seed.
6. UNLV --
7. CSU .5 game back
8. WYO 1
9. USU 1.5
10. AFA 2
11. SJSU 3.5
(--) UNLV has 3 games left: @boise, vsWYO, @sdsu
(.5) CSU has 4 games left: vs New Mexico, @Nevada, @fresno, vsAFA
(1) WYO has 3 games left: vsSDSU, @unlv, vs SJSU
(1.5) USU has 4 games left: @Nevada, vsSJSU, @AFA, vs Fresno
If New Mexico beats CSU, Wyo and CSU will be tied for 7th/8th.
But since we swept the sheep, we would be in 7th. In CSU's remaining 3 games after that, with 2 on the road vs teams in the top half of the MW, I don't see them gaining a full game on us.
It then comes down to WYO and UNLV for the battle for 6th. Odds are, SDSU beat both of us, meaning, we have two games to gain 1 game on them. Fortunately, one of those 2 games is against.... UNLV.
Then it comes down to us beating SJSU at home on senior day- and I am going to call that a win. I know with this team there is no such thing as automatic win, but on Josh Adams final home game vs the worst team in the conference, I am counting it.
With all that said, it comes down to CSU losing one then us matching the rest of the way with them. Then it falls on us beating UNLV in Vegas for the 6th seed.
seattlecowboy
Well-known member
Actually it doesn't matter if they play San Diego St or anyone else. No one in the conference is that great that they can't be beat this year. The conference is pretty bad. With that said the reality is that whether they play SDSU or anyone else the only way they will win is if they are hot from the 3 point line. If they are then they have a good chance to win and if they aren't then they will lose.
The only way Wyoming could win the tournament is if they were hot 4 games in a row which would pretty much take a miracle to happen. I could see them hot for one or at the most two games in a row but that is it. Just the reality of the situation. They don't have a go to guy on the inside so that is the only possible way of winning which I don't see happening.
The only way Wyoming could win the tournament is if they were hot 4 games in a row which would pretty much take a miracle to happen. I could see them hot for one or at the most two games in a row but that is it. Just the reality of the situation. They don't have a go to guy on the inside so that is the only possible way of winning which I don't see happening.
BeaverPoke
Well-known member
seattlecowboy said:
I don't agree that Wyo needs to be hot in 4 games in a row to win it all.
We don't need to be hot from 3 to beat some teams around us, and below us.
We definitely need to get hot if we want to beat SDSU.
But to beat a SJSU then a Fresno or Nevada, we don't need to be super hot from 3, we just need to grind out solid defensive possessions and not turn the ball over.
I doubt we win 4 games in 4 days, but the old cliche of one game at a time holds true.
Take care of business vs the lower seed we play, grind out a win vs 2 or 3 seed, get hot for a game, then hope someone else took care of SDSU.
seattlecowboy
Well-known member
BeaverPoke said:
I understand what you are saying and normally I would agree with you and we may not have to be "hot" from 3 all 4 games but I would say based on the way we play offense we may need to be. If you go look at how many 3's we take per game versus 2's you almost have to shoot a good percentage from the 3 point line for us to win games.
I looked over the last 11 games all the way back to the first time we played San Jose St. since we may play them and this is what I found as far as the percentage of shots taken from the 3 point line by our team:
Name of the team we played in first column , percentage of 3's taken and percentage of 3's made last column.
CSU : 66% shots taken from 3 : made 45%
FSU: 61% shots taken from 3: made 37%
BSU: 50% shots taken from 3: made 40%
Utah St.: 67% shots taken from 3: made 52%
AFA: 53% shots taken from 3: made 36%
CSU: 50% shots taken from 3: made 32%
FSU: 67% shots taken from 3 : made 37%
BSU: 42% shots taken from 3: made 47%
Nevada: 53% shots taken from 3: made 28%
New Mexico: 62% shots taken from 3: made 38%
San Jose St.: 45% shots taken from 3: made 27%
So as you can see almost every game we take at least half of our shots and sometimes two thirds of our shots from the 3 point line which means if we are making them we have a good chance to win and if we aren't then we are in trouble. Even on some of the games where we made a decent percentage we lost.
So if we were to change our offensive philosophy and attack the basket more I would agree with you completely that we could win grinding out some games and not have to be hitting the 3 ball but if we are going to jack 3's up at that rate there is a good chance we are going to need to be shooting a good percentage most games to have a chance. The other thing is we need to take better care of the ball. TO many games we have had turnovers that cost us the game.
The thing that probably is the most surprising is the fact that we shoot the 3 ball this much and also have games with lots of turnovers and looking at the scores we have only been beaten by 20 points once all year. Lost once by 15, once by 12 , once by 11 and then every other game has been with in 10 points or less with a chance to win. Honestly as young as we are and the fact we have only been blown out really one time all year is pretty remarkable.
Cosmic Cowboy
Well-known member
I don't agree with all of this. It does matter who we play because a few teams in this league really prevent us from getting hot because they have athletic defense. SDSU is the most disciplined and athletic of the bunch which really makes it hard to get good looks. Nevada, Fresno St, UNLV, and BSU fall into the next tier of that category with UNLV lacking the most discipline. The other teams we match up better against which helps us get our looks. We do need to shoot well to win the MWC tourney but we can win 1 game with grit and a favorable match up. Josh Adams is a big fat ace in the hole that could trump a team solo for a game as well. To win it all our bigs can't have a game where they disappear, they'll have to be present constantly.seattlecowboy said:
Cosmic Cowboy
Well-known member
This thread title is correct! We do not want the 8 or 9 seed. I want us in the lower half of the bracket with preferably Fresno St and UNLV up top. To do anything we are gonna have to prove we can actually beat Nevada or Boise St. A rematch with New Mexico would be tough but getable. Avoiding SDSU as long as possible seems like our best chance to me, but they can be gotten too. I don't think we can do it this year though, I could see us winning 3 on a miracle run but not 4.
seattlecowboy
Well-known member
Cosmic Cowboy said:
Well you are welcome to disagree.
My statement still stands. I guess I could change it to we need to be hot 3 games out of 4 to win the tournament. We might win our first game not being hot from 3 against a San Jose St. or an Air Force. But who cares if you win one game? It is a tournament and you want to win the whole thing. Once you get to the quarterfinals against Nevada, Boise St, Fresno St. or SDSU it doesn't matter which one you play because of how many 3 pointers we take. If you take as many 3's as we take against any of those 4 teams you are going to need to hit a good percentage or you will lose. The only other thing is change the offensive philosophy to making everyone drive to the basket and not shoot as many 3's. We only have a couple of guys that are capable of doing that.
Of the teams you mention and list we are 1-7 against them. With the lone win against UNLV.
I'm just not scared of SDSU anymore than any other team in the conference this year so I just don't think it matters. We shoot lots of 3's we make them we have a good shot to win , we miss them then we lose. We had it to a 4 point game in the 2nd half at San Diego after a horrid start. I guess i'm just not as enamored this year with SDSU as you guys are and don't see them as being much tougher than any of the other 3 or 4 teams we could face in the quarter finals. Just my opinion. It is always good to avoid a #1 seed I guess but this year don't think it matters much.
WestWYOPoke
Well-known member
I want to finish as high as possible. If that means we end at 8 or 9, so be it. I would rather be 8 and lose in our first game to SDSU than be 11 and lose in the quarters or semis.
Cosmic Cowboy
Well-known member
We ain't gettin no 10 seed homey! Say hello to USU and SDSU. I hope we can get by USU, the road will most likely stop with last year's title rematch. I just don't think we can clip SDSU and I'm sure they're happy they got us as its a favorable matchup for them. If we somehow get by SDSU we'll be looking at Nevada next. Ughhhhhhh I feel like we have 150-1 odds of winning the MWC tourney this year. :thefan:davidwyo said:
User Avatar - you're correct, our odds of winning each round as of right now are:
8.4 (seed) Wyoming 46.33% (1st) 11.52%(quarter) 3.83% (Semi) 0.96% (Finals)
So we have less than a 50% chance of getting past the 1st round and just north of 11% getting past SDSU. My odds would change dramatically if we won the the quarter finals against SDSU, but as of right now, we have less than a 1% chance of repeating. The fat lady is
8.4 (seed) Wyoming 46.33% (1st) 11.52%(quarter) 3.83% (Semi) 0.96% (Finals)
So we have less than a 50% chance of getting past the 1st round and just north of 11% getting past SDSU. My odds would change dramatically if we won the the quarter finals against SDSU, but as of right now, we have less than a 1% chance of repeating. The fat lady is
