Win-Loss Prediction

[BeaverPoke]

Because I want as much b-ball talk as possible going on here, I am starting another topic that we can B.S. for a couple days to pass the time til game day!
A lot of people are thinking that my 25 win prediction is too high but I don't so I will show why 25 is realistic.
And I wanna see what everyone elses W/Ls are too

Western-W 1-0
N. Carolina Central-W 2-0
S.Dak-W 3-0
Southern-W 4-0
N.Col-W 5-0
Cal.St.Bakers-W 6-0
Cal.SantaBarbra-W 7-0
CU-W (close game) 8-0
Ill.St.-W 9-0
oklahomapanhandle-W 10-0
Denver-W (another close game) 11-0
SantaBarbra-W (again) 12-0
SMU-W (close game) 13-0

CONFERENCE SEASON BEGINS
Boise-W 14-0 (1-0)
@Nevada-W (I think we let them know that the MWC is much harder in hoops than football) 15-0 (2-0)
@Fresno-W 16-0 (3-0)
SDSU-W (we finally grab one from those bastards) 17-0 (4-0)
@UNLV-L (unlv is just too good for us to beat them there) 17-1 (4-1)
Air Force- W 18-1 (5-1)
New Mexico-W (One of Leonards signature games of his career against a top opponent) 19-1 (6-1)
@SHEEP-W(should of had it last year!!!) 20-1 (7-1)

RANDOM non conference game!
Cal State Bakersfield-W 21-1

BACK TO CONFERENCE
@Boise W 22-1 (8-1)
Nevada W 23-1 (9-1) much closer game this time in the AA
Fresno-W 24-1 (10-1)
@SDSU-L 24-2 (10-2)
UNLV-W (of course we win, unlv is on the road) 25-2 (11-2)
@AFA-W 26-2 (12-2)
@NM-L 26-3 (12-3)
CSU-W HUGE WIN!!!!! 27-3 (13-3)

I think we end up as a 3 seed in the MWC tourney. I won't even begin to predict how that goes.

But I think we get the luck that CSU had last season, on top of being an improved team, and NOT dropping stupid games (afa, tcu, csu)

The ones I think are up for grabs out of the 27-3 schedule are CU, Denver, NM, SDSU, UNLV

Let's see what you guys got???

 

[gopokes1399]

been sippin on some kool aid lately? 21-9

 

[J-Rod]

I'll go with 21-9 too. Losses to CU, @FSU, SDSU, @CSU, @UNLV, @BSU, @SDSU, UNLV, @UNM.

MWC slate will be tough as usual. No such things as easy games. I think Nevada and Fresno turn out to be a little overrated.....Boise and Colorado State surprise some. UNLV, San Diego State, and New Mexico keep the "Big Three" intact.

 

[seattlecowboy]

Western-W
N. Carolina Central-W
S.Dak-W
Southern-W
N.Col-W
Cal.St.Bakers-W
@Cal.SantaBarbra-L
CU-W
@Ill.St.- L
oklahomapanhandle-W
Denver-W
SantaBarbra-W
@SMU-W

CONFERENCE SEASON BEGINS
Boise-W
@Nevada-L
@Fresno-L
SDSU-L
@UNLV-L
Air Force- W
New Mexico-W
@SHEEP-L
Cal State Bakersfield-W
@Boise W
Nevada W
Fresno-W
@SDSU-L
UNLV-L
@AFA-W
@NM-L
CSU-W

8-8 Conference 12-2 Non Conference

20-10 overall.

 

[BeaverPoke]

no way we only win 21.
no improvement from last season? false.
i don't get how people continue to think that we do not improve from last season.
We have such an EASY schedule out of conference. We should run the table out of conference.
Losing to CU? REALLY? we beat them LAST year in THEIR place! and they lost their #1 and 3 scorers. Their top returning guy is going to have to match up against Leonard. And that didn't work out to well for them last year. We win aganist CU in a close game.
Losing to fresno?!?! the 13 win team from the WAC?????? wtf?
I may be sipping kool-aid but at least its not hater-ade

 

[BeaverPoke]

And do I truely believe we hit 27 in regular season? No way.
That 27 comes from games I think we win and some toss up games all going our way.
If we do win all of those toss up games sure I think we could hit 27. With post season, but regardless I still think we hit 25 including MWC tourney and NIT.
If we win the MWC tourney then maybe, MAYBE we hit 27 total.

 

[TheRealUW]

Best guess at out of conference record: 10-4

I think we have losses to CU, UC-Santa Barbara (once), SMU, and Denver.

Best guess at conference record: 6-10

I can't see us winning any of the games against the big 3 (UNLV,New Mexico, and SDSU) this year. The talent gap is just too large. We are probably on par talent wise with the rest of the teams in the MWC, but we will drop some road games.

Final record: 16-14

 

[NowherePoke]

Best guess at out of conference record: 10-4

I think we have losses to CU, UC-Santa Barbara (once), SMU, and Denver.

Best guess at conference record: 6-10

I can't see us winning any of the games against the big 3 (UNLV,New Mexico, and SDSU) this year. The talent gap is just too large. We are probably on par talent wise with the rest of the teams in the MWC, but we will drop some road games.

Final record: 16-14

I would say thisis about right. Wouldn't be surprised if we did a touch better OOC (UCSB is rebuilding and DU is in Laramie, might get one of those games), but the MWC schedule will be very difficult.

Not sure what the point of the OP was? Just to give something that opposing fans can link to and laugh at? I don't think this is one if the 2 or 3 best teams in the history of UW, call me crazy.

 

[BeaverPoke]

Best guess at out of conference record: 10-4

I think we have losses to CU, UC-Santa Barbara (once), SMU, and Denver.

Best guess at conference record: 6-10

I can't see us winning any of the games against the big 3 (UNLV,New Mexico, and SDSU) this year. The talent gap is just too large. We are probably on par talent wise with the rest of the teams in the MWC, but we will drop some road games.

Final record: 16-14

I would say thisis about right. Wouldn't be surprised if we did a touch better OOC (UCSB is rebuilding and DU is in Laramie, might get one of those games), but the MWC schedule will be very difficult.

Not sure what the point of the OP was? Just to give something that opposing fans can link to and laugh at? I don't think this is one if the 2 or 3 best teams in the history of UW, call me crazy.

You guys all suck. 16-14? No fuckin way.

 

[J-Rod]

You guys all suck. 16-14? No fuckin way.

Everyone said the same thing this off-season when anyone suggested the football team would go 7-5. 7-5!!!! The supposed worse case scenario ended up being way worse than anyone expected.

Not saying that will happen to the basketball team, but this is why we play the games. Nobody ever truly knows what will happen. This time last year, North Carolina was the unanimous pick for the national title. Seemed legit, considering what they returned.

Not only did they not win the title, they didn't even win their conference! We'll see what the Cowboys do. Wouldn't you rather be conservative on predictions and then be excited when they succeed instead of disappointed cause they missed the mark?

 

[BeaverPoke]

You guys all suck. 16-14? No fuckin way.

Everyone said the same thing this off-season when anyone suggested the football team would go 7-5. 7-5!!!! The supposed worse case scenario ended up being way worse than anyone expected.

Not saying that will happen to the basketball team, but this is why we play the games. Nobody ever truly knows what will happen. This time last year, North Carolina was the unanimous pick for the national title. Seemed legit, considering what they returned.

Not only did they not win the title, they didn't even win their conference! We'll see what the Cowboys do. Wouldn't you rather be conservative on predictions and then be excited when they succeed instead of disappointed cause they missed the mark?

No, because I think part of the fun is the prediction, the thinking of "what-if".
Instead of just waiting for 2 hours of a game twice a week, I have with it all week, all month, all preseason, and all off season.
A win is a win, and a loss is a a loss, even if it is or it isn't what I "predicted".
So, I am going to continue to predict, as it has ZERO out come on my happiness at the end of the season. The ACTUAL win loss record will determine it.

Wyo fans can be such downers and so boring. Instead of having a little fun and predictin some stuff we go with no no 16-14 for us even though we won 21 last year only because I don't wanna have my hopes crushed...
Lame fans sometimes. And then we wonder why we aren't great at sports?
It's because we would be happy and content winning 16 games. Whew... how fun

 

[TheRealUW]

No, because I think part of the fun is the prediction, the thinking of "what-if".
Instead of just waiting for 2 hours of a game twice a week, I have with it all week, all month, all preseason, and all off season.
A win is a win, and a loss is a a loss, even if it is or it isn't what I "predicted".
So, I am going to continue to predict, as it has ZERO out come on my happiness at the end of the season. The ACTUAL win loss record will determine it.

Wyo fans can be such downers and so boring. Instead of having a little fun and predictin some stuff we go with no no 16-14 for us even though we won 21 last year only because I don't wanna have my hopes crushed...
Lame fans sometimes. And then we wonder why we aren't great at sports?
It's because we would be happy and content winning 16 games. Whew... how fun

You need to realize that blindly predicting great seasons and boatloads of wins isn't the definition of "fun" for most fans, especially when those predictions can't be grounded in any solid logic. If you enjoy hoping for/expecting a fantastic season, then more power to you, but don't start a prediction thread and then lambast every poster who doesn't share the same opinions about the number of games this team will win.

I am a HUGE fan of the game of basketball. I spend a large amount of my time either playing or watching basketball at many different levels. Over time, I've come to really enjoy the nuances of the game and paying attention to the small details that many fans overlook as they follow the ball to see if it goes in the basket or not. I say this not because I think it makes my prediction any more valid than any other posters, but because that in depth analysis of the match ups is something that is "fun" for me. For me, being objective and making a realistic (as I see it) prediction based on a game by game match-up analysis is far more "fun" then expecting us to go undefeated in non-conference play. It certainly has nothing to do with me lowering the bar as to avoid having my hopes crushed.

 

[BeaverPoke]

No, because I think part of the fun is the prediction, the thinking of "what-if".
Instead of just waiting for 2 hours of a game twice a week, I have with it all week, all month, all preseason, and all off season.
A win is a win, and a loss is a a loss, even if it is or it isn't what I "predicted".
So, I am going to continue to predict, as it has ZERO out come on my happiness at the end of the season. The ACTUAL win loss record will determine it.

Wyo fans can be such downers and so boring. Instead of having a little fun and predictin some stuff we go with no no 16-14 for us even though we won 21 last year only because I don't wanna have my hopes crushed...
Lame fans sometimes. And then we wonder why we aren't great at sports?
It's because we would be happy and content winning 16 games. Whew... how fun

You need to realize that blindly predicting great seasons and boatloads of wins isn't the definition of "fun" for most fans, especially when those predictions can't be grounded in any solid logic. If you enjoy hoping for/expecting a fantastic season, then more power to you, but don't start a prediction thread and then lambast every poster who doesn't share the same opinions about the number of games this team will win.

I am a HUGE fan of the game of basketball. I spend a large amount of my time either playing or watching basketball at many different levels. Over time, I've come to really enjoy the nuances of the game and paying attention to the small details that many fans overlook as they follow the ball to see if it goes in the basket or not. I say this not because I think it makes my prediction any more valid than any other posters, but because that in depth analysis of the match ups is something that is "fun" for me. For me, being objective and making a realistic (as I see it) prediction based on a game by game match-up analysis is far more "fun" then expecting us to go undefeated in non-conference play. It certainly has nothing to do with me lowering the bar as to avoid having my hopes crushed.

Ok, so what I am getting at is I made these predicitions. And I don't just blindly do it. Wyo went 14-2 out of conference last season. And People think we only get 16 wins this ENTIRE season?
We are going to be much improved from last season to this season. But yet us only pickin up about 10 OOC games are reasonable? No way. The fan base has it's expectations too low. 14-2 last season to undefeated this season is not blindly hoping and being unrealistic.

Maybe people don't have "fun" just shouting out records but what I see is a bunch of non-competitive bulllll crap.
Even if we do go 16-14 I bet most people that cheer for Wyo b-ball would be "happy for them". And think "oh what a nice year".

 

[BeaverPoke]

And cheering for mediocrity, is just so fun. I love being a wyo fan sometimes.

 

[seattlecowboy]

No, because I think part of the fun is the prediction, the thinking of "what-if".
Instead of just waiting for 2 hours of a game twice a week, I have with it all week, all month, all preseason, and all off season.
A win is a win, and a loss is a a loss, even if it is or it isn't what I "predicted".
So, I am going to continue to predict, as it has ZERO out come on my happiness at the end of the season. The ACTUAL win loss record will determine it.

Wyo fans can be such downers and so boring. Instead of having a little fun and predictin some stuff we go with no no 16-14 for us even though we won 21 last year only because I don't wanna have my hopes crushed...
Lame fans sometimes. And then we wonder why we aren't great at sports?
It's because we would be happy and content winning 16 games. Whew... how fun

You need to realize that blindly predicting great seasons and boatloads of wins isn't the definition of "fun" for most fans, especially when those predictions can't be grounded in any solid logic. If you enjoy hoping for/expecting a fantastic season, then more power to you, but don't start a prediction thread and then lambast every poster who doesn't share the same opinions about the number of games this team will win.

I am a HUGE fan of the game of basketball. I spend a large amount of my time either playing or watching basketball at many different levels. Over time, I've come to really enjoy the nuances of the game and paying attention to the small details that many fans overlook as they follow the ball to see if it goes in the basket or not. I say this not because I think it makes my prediction any more valid than any other posters, but because that in depth analysis of the match ups is something that is "fun" for me. For me, being objective and making a realistic (as I see it) prediction based on a game by game match-up analysis is far more "fun" then expecting us to go undefeated in non-conference play. It certainly has nothing to do with me lowering the bar as to avoid having my hopes crushed.

Ok, so what I am getting at is I made these predicitions. And I don't just blindly do it. Wyo went 14-2 out of conference last season. And People think we only get 16 wins this ENTIRE season?
We are going to be much improved from last season to this season. But yet us only pickin up about 10 OOC games are reasonable? No way. The fan base has it's expectations too low. 14-2 last season to undefeated this season is not blindly hoping and being unrealistic.

Maybe people don't have "fun" just shouting out records but what I see is a bunch of non-competitive bulllll crap.
Even if we do go 16-14 I bet most people that cheer for Wyo b-ball would be "happy for them". And think "oh what a nice year".

What makes you think we are going to be "much improved" from last season to this season? I'm not saying we will or won't but just curious as to your reasoning on it.

I think we might be better defensively down low but I think we might not be as good defensively on the perimeter. I think we will probably score a few more points this year than last but I also think the conference is going to be even tougher this year than last year and we are very inexperienced.

So I honestly don't see us having a better record than last year. I think the best we can hope for is as good of a record as last year. If we do end up doing as well as you're predicting than by all means keep on predicting and predict us into the national championship lol

 

[BeaverPoke]

No, because I think part of the fun is the prediction, the thinking of "what-if".
Instead of just waiting for 2 hours of a game twice a week, I have with it all week, all month, all preseason, and all off season.
A win is a win, and a loss is a a loss, even if it is or it isn't what I "predicted".
So, I am going to continue to predict, as it has ZERO out come on my happiness at the end of the season. The ACTUAL win loss record will determine it.

Wyo fans can be such downers and so boring. Instead of having a little fun and predictin some stuff we go with no no 16-14 for us even though we won 21 last year only because I don't wanna have my hopes crushed...
Lame fans sometimes. And then we wonder why we aren't great at sports?
It's because we would be happy and content winning 16 games. Whew... how fun

You need to realize that blindly predicting great seasons and boatloads of wins isn't the definition of "fun" for most fans, especially when those predictions can't be grounded in any solid logic. If you enjoy hoping for/expecting a fantastic season, then more power to you, but don't start a prediction thread and then lambast every poster who doesn't share the same opinions about the number of games this team will win.

I am a HUGE fan of the game of basketball. I spend a large amount of my time either playing or watching basketball at many different levels. Over time, I've come to really enjoy the nuances of the game and paying attention to the small details that many fans overlook as they follow the ball to see if it goes in the basket or not. I say this not because I think it makes my prediction any more valid than any other posters, but because that in depth analysis of the match ups is something that is "fun" for me. For me, being objective and making a realistic (as I see it) prediction based on a game by game match-up analysis is far more "fun" then expecting us to go undefeated in non-conference play. It certainly has nothing to do with me lowering the bar as to avoid having my hopes crushed.

Ok, so what I am getting at is I made these predicitions. And I don't just blindly do it. Wyo went 14-2 out of conference last season. And People think we only get 16 wins this ENTIRE season?
We are going to be much improved from last season to this season. But yet us only pickin up about 10 OOC games are reasonable? No way. The fan base has it's expectations too low. 14-2 last season to undefeated this season is not blindly hoping and being unrealistic.

Maybe people don't have "fun" just shouting out records but what I see is a bunch of non-competitive bulllll crap.
Even if we do go 16-14 I bet most people that cheer for Wyo b-ball would be "happy for them". And think "oh what a nice year".

What makes you think we are going to be "much improved" from last season to this season? I'm not saying we will or won't but just curious as to your reasoning on it.

I think we might be better defensively down low but I think we might not be as good defensively on the perimeter. I think we will probably score a few more points this year than last but I also think the conference is going to be even tougher this year than last year and we are very inexperienced.

So I honestly don't see us having a better record than last year. I think the best we can hope for is as good of a record as last year. If we do end up doing as well as you're predicting than by all means keep on predicting and predict us into the national championship lol

Lol Oh I will!
But I think we are better as Martinez last year had no d1 experience, much less MWC experieence. Now he is returning a 5th year sr, and led the MWC in 3s last season. He will be a huge threat this season. He started to slump a little bit towards the end of the season last year, but I think that was just due to him relying on his 3 ball and just inexperience, AND having NO bench.
Leonard has proven he is a top caliber MWC player. Again, another senior. And Gilmore I think can easily replace Luster. I loved Luster. But I will love someone who can actually score too...
So I think our seniors this year are way ahead of our seniors last year. And our bench this season will be a lot better than last seasons. I mean last year we had Nance and Gilmore (for half the season)
And nance didn't start truely coming around until the last half of the season.
Our bench with josh adams and apparently mcmanamen is pretty damn good as well, then everything we have been hearing about derek cooke just seem so much deeper than last year.
Hell even if we have 3 decent players off the bench then we are twice as deep as last year.

Nance has grown and even as a 6th player, as a freshman has shown and proven that he is going to be a really good player and will be a team leader for this team. There is no doubt.

 

[Cowduck]

I still think we'll basically be the same team as last year. Our team defense will keep us in every game, prevent us from taking bad losses, and perhaps steal a game or two we shouldn't win a la the CU game last year. I still don't see how we will score points. That keeps a hard ceiling on the upside of this team, especially in conference play. 20 wins, CBI bid.

 

[NowherePoke]

Take a look at the Game Notes release for the first exhibition: http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/wyo/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2012-13/release/release.pdf

Look over at the right hand side of the first page under 2011-2012 averages.

What do we see?

14 players on the roster
13 players eligible for this season (Hankerson will sit out a transfer year)
7 of them have not played in a D1 game
2 of them (Bentz, a walk-on, and Grabau) averaged less than 1 ppg in limited appearances.

We return only 4 players with real experience, and only one of them (Washington) has more than one year of D1 playing experience.

This is a young, inexperienced team, playing in Top 5 conference. You will need to be a Top 25, at-large type of team to finish in the top half of the league. That's a mighty big hill to climb for a young team.

Washington and Martinez should be outstanding and others will step up (I am particularly excited to see Adams and Cooke, while I think Nance will take another step forward), but to expect us to win the league and post arguably the greatest season in UW history, seems out of touch.

 

[NowherePoke]

I still think we'll basically be the same team as last year. Our team defense will keep us in every game, prevent us from taking bad losses, and perhaps steal a game or two we shouldn't win a la the CU game last year. I still don't see how we will score points. That keeps a hard ceiling on the upside of this team, especially in conference play. 20 wins, CBI bid.

Definitely seems a tough road on offense. Somebody is going to have to step up and become a threat to score off the dribble (maybe Josh Adams could be that player) and Nance's development will be key. Can he become the type of player that catch it in the post and score or draw help?

 

[wyo 1]

Take a look at the Game Notes release for the first exhibition: http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/wyo/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2012-13/release/release.pdf

Look over at the right hand side of the first page under 2011-2012 averages.

What do we see?

14 players on the roster
13 players eligible for this season (Hankerson will sit out a transfer year)
7 of them have not played in a D1 game
2 of them (Bentz, a walk-on, and Grabau) averaged less than 1 ppg in limited appearances.

We return only 4 players with real experience, and only one of them (Washington) has more than one year of D1 playing experience.


This is a young, inexperienced team, playing in Top 5 conference. You will need to be a Top 25, at-large type of team to finish in the top half of the league. That's a mighty big hill to climb for a young team.

Washington and Martinez should be outstanding and others will step up (I am particularly excited to see Adams and Cooke, while I think Nance will take another step forward), but to expect us to win the league and post arguably the greatest season in UW history, seems out of touch.

+1