Who are we? Where are we heading?

[307bball]

Ok time for me to get some thoughts off my chest. I'm posting this image that shows the distribution of Wyoming season winning percentage since the close of WWII. The blue line is the normal distribution of the data set while the red bars are a histogram of the actual results broken down in bins of 10%. So basically you can see that, for instance, we had 14 seasons between a winning percentage of .501 and .600. Also shown an the chart are points that represent the coaches at Wyoming from this century. These numbers are career winning percentage for those coaches. This is not meant to spark debate about eras or offensive styles or whatever. This is just a very high level look at the program from a wiiiiide perspective.

One thing that jumps out at me from the data is that DC, JG, and CB have basically had the same results. There is statistically very little that differentiates them. If that is the case...why did those coaches get canned in roughly the same amount of time that Bohl has had while Bohl gets extensions? My opinion is that the data point I added that shows Bohl's record after his first two seasons is the answer. Both Glenn and DC had their highest win percentage in year 2 of their tenure...Bohl's highest came in year four and again in year six. I believe the perception is that Bohl is on a level or upwards trajectory while JG and DC were heading down. Obviously, it is possible that DC or JG were one year away from running the table but I kind of doubt it. I don't know what to make of last year. Was it a harbinger of things to come? Have we begun the slide downwards that has always seemed to come with even modest success at Wyoming? Maybe it was a statistical hiccup of an exhibition year and will ultimately not matter.

My prediction...Bohl will join the small group of coaches that retire at Wyoming and not get fired. This does not mean I think that championships are in our near future...it just means I don't think we are heading to the basement with him. In the current environment (i.e. the last 20 years) that is good enough to keep your job in Laramie.

BTW...If something is off...let me know.

 

[cowpoke pride]

Sadly, I think that all but 2 or 3 of the of +.601 winning pct seasons were before I was breathing.

As far a last year goes, there is nothing to make of it......there was just too many things up in the air and too many crazy variables (except that losing to New Mexico's 5th string, walk on QB was completely inexcusable under any circumstances)

 

[WyoGeezer]

As I said once before, due to a variety of factors, I think we might be stuck with Bohl until his contract expires. Let's hope he finally gets the program rolling. And hope that Bohl doesn't get another contract extension until he does get it rolling.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

As I said once before, due to a variety of factors, I think we might be stuck with Bohl until his contract expires. Let's hope he finally gets the program rolling. And hope that Bohl doesn't get another contract extension until he does get it rolling.

Bohl was already extended through the 2024 season. I certainly don’t have any additional insight, but I can’t see him coaching much longer than that given his age.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Bohl is JG with a better run game and much weaker conference. Bohl was hired by the current AD and JG wasn't. JG was fired by the current AD who said at the time that we couldn't recruit top level athletes and needed innovation on offense...enter DC.

Bohl and JG are pretty similar. Bohl will have more success but will be afforded more time and a weaker conference. The weak conference has afforded decent records despite a dysfunctional offense. I think Bohl will fix the offense and make a decent run. If he doesn't fix the offense, he won't be here after 2 seasons is my prediction. If he does and is having success, I'll bet he rides it out and enjoys it for a while.

 

[307bball]

Bohl is JG with a better run game and much weaker conference. Bohl was hired by the current AD and JG wasn't. JG was fired by the current AD who said at the time that we couldn't recruit top level athletes and needed innovation on offense...enter DC.

Bohl and JG are pretty similar. Bohl will have more success but will be afforded more time and a weaker conference. The weak conference has afforded decent records despite a dysfunctional offense. I think Bohl will fix the offense and make a decent run. If he doesn't fix the offense, he won't be here after 2 seasons is my prediction. If he does and is having success, I'll bet he rides it out and enjoys it for a while.

If I may ... How is this still not a function of win percentage? Would you downgrade a Wyoming team that is competitive with the upper echelon of a weaker conference? Would you upgrade a cellar dweller Wyoming team in a tough conference? The answer to those questions could be yes...but I don't think the answer is yes for the athletic department and trustees who want full stadiums. I think wins put butts in seats.....losses take them away. Obviously you have the corner cases of the teams that come here like Texas or Nebraska and sell out the stadium no matter how terrible Wyoming is. The main predictor of attendance is winning percentage. Win more than you lose and you get to stay in Laramie...obviously there are some who hate that..."championships or else" is not about getting to an average of five conference wins.

Maybe JG could post the exact same results as CB has in this era...I'm not convinced. JG did not get canned because he couldn't compete with Utah and TCU...he got canned because the bottom half of the conference was beating us. That bottom half is the same group of teams that CB is largely successful against. I personally have no nostalgia for the JG era even though I liked JG a lot.....those teams were nowhere close to being competitive....I never heard a fan say..."gee it's to bad we lost by 50 but I feel better knowing that the team that just pulled our pants down is a really good team". Not only that...it's not like we were only losing to the TCU's and Utahs....we were losing to everybody in conference those last couple years. Anyways...I hate these "era" arguments...they ultimately do a disservice to both being considered and the conference you play in and the relative strength of your opponent is completely out of your control....Heck BSU became a powerhouse while playing a creampuff schedule for years and years. They were really good and it didn't matter that they had nobody in their conference even close to them.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Good analysis from another post:

Warning: Long post with a lot of data


This topic has been brought up quite a few times, and I think folks have analyzed it. But I wanted to dig back in (not that it really makes a difference) and analyze the Glenn vs Bohl comparison. It’s widely viewed that Glenn faced much tougher competition and a stronger MW; I wanted to prove or disprove this opinion.

I used Sagarin for rankings and ratings, which I know can be a debatable system. However, it’s the one I was able to find data easily and consistent through both tenures. Sagarin ranking is the numerical ranking 1 - X # of teams. Sagarin rating is the formula used by Jeff Sagarin to rate teams. Below the summary is the data

In summary, Glenn faced a much tougher MW schedule as well as overall schedule. Bohl's average opponent ranking is 92, where Glenn's was 70. That's a HUGE difference in competition. The average MW team ranking for Glenn's tenure was 63, whereas it has been 89 in Bohl's. The MW is much worse now than in Glenn's tenure.

Glenn was much more consistent against bad teams – 100% winning record against teams with a Sagarin rating below 60, where Bohl is only 68.6%. Bohl has many more bad losses; 11 vs teams lower than a 60 Sagarin which typically accounts for teams that are ranked 100 and below (including FCS). Glenn never lost to a team lower than a 60 Sagarin in 15 games.

We’ve claimed that Bohl and his offense is consistent against the teams that we should beat. However, that doesn’t prove to be true. He has a lot of losses against terrible teams, whereas Glenn and Cockhill ALWAYS beat those teams. To be fair, it was likely the D holding the team back in the first 3 years of Bohl.

Bohl has been better against the lower-tier competition (Sagarin 60-70), winning 55% of the games. These teams typically rank in the 75-100 range. This appears to be Glenn’s weakness (39.1%). When you jump up in competition to the next tier (70-80 Sagarin) Bohl wins 16.7% of the time vs Glenn at 28.6%. A 70-80 Sagarin typically equates to 25th – 75th best teams in the country.

Both coaches failed to beat Top-25 teams. Glenn coached 12 games against teams above 80 in Sagarin, winning none. Bohl has coached 7, also winning none.

Take it for what it’s worth, but it appears that Glenn was the better coach when you compare similar Opponents.

Glenn
Overall Opponent Sagarin Rank: 70.3
Overall Opponent Sagarin Rating: 70.1
MW Sagarin Avg Rating: 70.08 (fairly consistent)

W/L Record Based on Sagarin Rating (Higher Sagarin = Better Opponent)

Teams > 90
W: 0
L: 3
Win %: 0

Teams 80-90
W: 0
L: 9
Win %: 0

Teams 70-80
W: 6
L: 15
Win %: 28.6

Teams 60-70
W: 9
L: 14
Win %: 39.1

Teams 50-60
W: 14
L: 0
Win %: 100.0

Teams <50
W: 1
L: 0
Win %: 100.0

Bohl
Overall Opponent Sagarin Rank: 90.5
Overall Opponent Sagarin Rating: 64.5
MW Sagarin Avg Rating: 64.85 (2016 was high at 67.10 / 2017 was low at 60.28)
MW Record: 24-29 45.3%

W/L Record Based on Sagarin Rating (Higher Sagarin = Better Opponent)

Teams > 90
W: 0
L: 2
Win %: 0

Teams 80-90
W: 0
L: 5
Win %: 0

Teams 70-80
W: 3
L: 16
Win %: 15.8

Teams 60-70
W: 11
L: 9
Win %: 55.0

Teams 50-60
W: 17
L: 9
Win %: 65.4

Teams <50
W: 7
L: 2
Win %: 77.8

 

[ragtimejoe1]

If I may ... How is this still not a function of win percentage? Would you downgrade a Wyoming team that is competitive with the upper echelon of a weaker conference? Would you upgrade a cellar dweller Wyoming team in a tough conference? The answer to those questions could be yes...but I don't think the answer is yes for the athletic department and trustees who want full stadiums. I think wins put butts in seats.....losses take them away. Obviously you have the corner cases of the teams that come here like Texas or Nebraska and sell out the stadium no matter how terrible Wyoming is. The main predictor of attendance is winning percentage. Win more than you lose and you get to stay in Laramie...obviously there are some who hate that..."championships or else" is not about getting to an average of five conference wins.

Maybe JG could post the exact same results as CB has in this era...I'm not convinced. JG did not get canned because he couldn't compete with Utah and TCU...he got canned because the bottom half of the conference was beating us. That bottom half is the same group of teams that CB is largely successful against. I personally have no nostalgia for the JG era even though I liked JG a lot.....those teams were nowhere close to being competitive....I never heard a fan say..."gee it's to bad we lost by 50 but I feel better knowing that the team that just pulled our pants down is a really good team". Not only that...it's not like we were only losing to the TCU's and Utahs....we were losing to everybody in conference those last couple years. Anyways...I hate these "era" arguments...they ultimately do a disservice to both being considered and the conference you play in and the relative strength of your opponent is completely out of your control....Heck BSU became a powerhouse while playing a creampuff schedule for years and years. They were really good and it didn't matter that they had nobody in their conference even close to them.

PokeNer did a nice analysis that shows there isn't a lot of difference between the two especially against better teams. JG just had better teams on the schedule.

No doubt win % matters. Hopefully bsu and sdsu leave which will make WYO even more competitive and should up our win %.

I don't necessarily have nostalgia for JG; I just don't think the current program is that much better. If Bohl can fix the offense, then I think Bohl gets the nod by quite a bit and the record will reflect that. JG didn't get the time or weak conference that Bohl has; hard to tell what JG would have done with either.

I'm not bagging on Bohl; I like him and his program. I just don't think it is some mystical or unprecedented transformation. We can beat some bad or terrible teams. We can lose to some bad or terrible teams. We rarely beat good or elite teams.

 

[307bball]

PokeNer did a nice analysis that shows there isn't a lot of difference between the two especially against better teams. JG just had better teams on the schedule.

No doubt win % matters. Hopefully bsu and sdsu leave which will make WYO even more competitive and should up our win %.

I don't necessarily have nostalgia for JG; I just don't think the current program is that much better. If Bohl can fix the offense, then I think Bohl gets the nod by quite a bit and the record will reflect that. JG didn't get the time or weak conference that Bohl has; hard to tell what JG would have done with either.

I'm not bagging on Bohl; I like him and his program. I just don't think it is some mystical or unprecedented transformation. We can beat some bad or terrible teams. We can lose to some bad or terrible teams. We rarely beat good or elite teams.

We can beat some bad or terrible teams. We can lose to some bad or terrible teams. We rarely beat good or elite teams.

I agree that the above statement can truly be said about Both Bohl and JG...the difference is wins. Bohl has won more than Glenn...that is why he is still employed and that is why Glenn got the boot. The analysis referenced above is interesting but ultimately did not shield Glenn from getting fired .. nor should it have. Glenn won 10 conference games in his last four years at the helm. Bohl won 19 in his last four full years* (covid caveat for last year).

I accept that there is an argument to be made that Glenn's program was actually slightly stronger based on the above analysis. But I think it is an argument that rational people can disagree on...

Sagarin >70
JG 6-27 0.182
CB 3-23 0.115

Sagarin<70
JG 24-14 0.632
CB 43-20 0.683

There are a ton of similarities ... but if Glenn wins 19 conference games in what ended up being his last four years ... no way he gets fired. Those wins are the difference.

If I had to pick between Glenn's tenure or Bohl's...I'm going CB every time. That is not to say he is the second coming. I would just rather win more than lose...regardless of competition level. We are more competitive in conference now than during JG's tenure and I prefer it that way. AND I think status quo is not "good enough".

 

[ragtimejoe1]

We can beat some bad or terrible teams. We can lose to some bad or terrible teams. We rarely beat good or elite teams.

I agree that the above statement can truly be said about Both Bohl and JG...the difference is wins. Bohl has won more than Glenn...that is why he is still employed and that is why Glenn got the boot.

Splitting hairs, imo. JG wasn't hired by the current AD which likely factored in. Our budget was also better which likely factored in. The MWC and WYO were shooting pretty high at the time and JG wasn't in the upper 1/3 of the conference which likely played a large factor.

Both coaches beat bad teams and lost to bad teams. Both coaches rarely beat good teams. Win percentage depends as much on how many bad teams they face as anything else. This past year's teams was as bad or worse than any that JG fielded. CB's first season was the worst team in WYO history.

Level of competition matters to me but not everyone; I realize that. We could go knock the hell out FCS for a few years and it wouldn't do much for me personally. I realize some would be completely satisfied with winning 10+ games on the schedule.

 

[307bball]

We can beat some bad or terrible teams. We can lose to some bad or terrible teams. We rarely beat good or elite teams.

I agree that the above statement can truly be said about Both Bohl and JG...the difference is wins. Bohl has won more than Glenn...that is why he is still employed and that is why Glenn got the boot.

Splitting hairs, imo. JG wasn't hired by the current AD which likely factored in. Our budget was also better which likely factored in. The MWC and WYO were shooting pretty high at the time and JG wasn't in the upper 1/3 of the conference which likely played a large factor.

Both coaches beat bad teams and lost to bad teams. Both coaches rarely beat good teams. Win percentage depends as much on how many bad teams they face as anything else. This past year's teams was as bad or worse than any that JG fielded. CB's first season was the worst team in WYO history.

Level of competition matters to me but not everyone; I realize that. We could go knock the hell out FCS for a few years and it wouldn't do much for me personally. I realize some would be completely satisfied with winning 10+ games on the schedule.

I remember the year JG got the axe...I have zero insider knowledge but I bet that if Glenn beats CSU at the end of that season he would have gotten one more year. People wanted him to succeed. I'm unaware of any animosity between the athletic department and Glenn....He just couldn't win in conference... I don't think AD situation made any difference...you may have some insider knowledge there though. I don't care what Bohl's contract situation is..if he wins three conference games in the next two seasons...he's gone.

Otherwise I'm pretty much in agreement with you. I wish that we played in a nationally respected conference...but that ship has sailed. Coaches have zero control over conference strength. JG got put on notice after winning two conference games and proceeded to lay a turd the next year by posting a 1-7 record while only beating an awful SDSU team (also 1-7 in conference). That includes losses to UNM, UNLV, and a mediocre CSU team. CB took what you are calling the worst team in Wyoming history and went in the right direction...Glenn went the other way. I also hate how the 2020 season went but I also am hesitant to draw many conclusions off of it.

 

[Bryoming]

Regarding the 2020 season:
The keys to the Tampa 2 defense that Bohl runs are a great middle linebacker, great defensive tackles and nose guards, and fast corners that can tackle.

Our biggest issue was the interior of the defensive line this year. Between opt outs, suspensions, and injuries we were SUPER thin at a key position. That doesn't excuse the offense, but it sure as hell explains some of our defensive woes this year.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

I agree with 307bball on this one. The coach has relatively little to do with strength of schedule. You can only beat who you are scheduled to play. Bohl won more games over the past few than Glenn did so Bohl gets the nod.

Trying to guess how Bohl would have done with Glenn’s schedule and vice versa is just pure speculation. There are so many factors between Wyo and MWC football 15 years ago and now that any comparison is bound to be flawed.

That said, next year should have real expectations and results or Bohl will be moving closer to the hot seat. Personally, and assuming we have most players return including Chambers, I’m optimistic.

 

[stymeman]

Yes JG and Bohl are very similar winning National Championships in the FCS level, coming to Wyoming and being mediocre because that is what Wyoming is, unfortunately...some big wins in program history, some bowl games, but let's face it we are not a P5 school so we gotta take what we're given, and maybe a Conference Championship every once in awhile, the more the merrier

 

[307bball]

but let's face it we are not a P5 school so we gotta take what we're given

This is a great point...there was an article recently that looked at programs likely to make the jump to P5....I did not read it (it was behind a paywall) but I bet Wyoming was not mentioned. The smart money says it is a matter of when...not if...for the P5 to make a formal break with the NCAA. What happens to Wyoming at that point?

 

[ragtimejoe1]

I agree with 307bball on this one. The coach has relatively little to do with strength of schedule. You can only beat who you are scheduled to play. Bohl won more games over the past few than Glenn did so Bohl gets the nod.

For sure. Hopefully suds, bsu, and maybe nv leave. That should really improve the WYO team. Heck, even dropping to FCS should get us a bunch of wins over a few years at least.

If you get more bottom teams and you beat more bottom teams, definitely a good indicator of how far a program has come.

 

[307bball]

I agree with 307bball on this one. The coach has relatively little to do with strength of schedule. You can only beat who you are scheduled to play. Bohl won more games over the past few than Glenn did so Bohl gets the nod.

For sure. Hopefully suds, bsu, and maybe nv leave. That should really improve the WYO team. Heck, even dropping to FCS should get us a bunch of wins over a few years at least.

If you get more bottom teams and you beat more bottom teams, definitely a good indicator of how far a program has come.

Straw man much? Is anybody voicing this opinion?

Open call for anybody that has the opinion that it is a good thing for wyoming if the conference that Wyoming plays in to get weaker. What? Nobody has that opinion? Sssssshhhhhocking.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

I agree with 307bball on this one. The coach has relatively little to do with strength of schedule. You can only beat who you are scheduled to play. Bohl won more games over the past few than Glenn did so Bohl gets the nod.

For sure. Hopefully suds, bsu, and maybe nv leave. That should really improve the WYO team. Heck, even dropping to FCS should get us a bunch of wins over a few years at least.

If you get more bottom teams and you beat more bottom teams, definitely a good indicator of how far a program has come.

Straw man much? Is anybody voicing this opinion?

Open call for anybody that has the opinion that it is a good thing for wyoming if the conference that Wyoming plays in to get weaker. What? Nobody has that opinion? Sssssshhhhhocking.

No one on this thread.

But SDPoke has advocated for a decade for Wyoming to go to FCS completely ignoring the logic that Wyoming would not be able to attract the same level of player with such a ridiculous move.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

I agree with 307bball on this one. The coach has relatively little to do with strength of schedule. You can only beat who you are scheduled to play. Bohl won more games over the past few than Glenn did so Bohl gets the nod.

For sure. Hopefully suds, bsu, and maybe nv leave. That should really improve the WYO team. Heck, even dropping to FCS should get us a bunch of wins over a few years at least.

If you get more bottom teams and you beat more bottom teams, definitely a good indicator of how far a program has come.

Straw man much? Is anybody voicing this opinion?

Open call for anybody that has the opinion that it is a good thing for wyoming if the conference that Wyoming plays in to get weaker. What? Nobody has that opinion? Sssssshhhhhocking.

If SOS is irrelevant, then logic dictates the fastest way to the top is try to weaken SOS as much as possible. We can drastically strengthen our program by seeking the easiest possible path to Ws.

Of course, the other angle is that SOS does matter when considering where a program is at. Glenn faced 3 automatic (or nearly) conference losses + usually at least 1 OOC auto (or nearly). Bohl faces 1 conference auto loss (or nearly). If Bohl faced bsu 3 times in a season, most years that would be at minimum 2 losses and likely 3. That leaves 5 games he has a chance to win. Based on his results, we can reasonably expect 2-3 wins of 5. Good years would be 4 conference wins and bad years probably somewhere around 1; sounds familiar. Before anyone starts, Bohl's teams couldn't compete with TCU, Utah, and most byu teams; at minimum, he loses 2 of those games every year (he's only beat bsu once).

Again, I like Bohl and I don't think we can do a lot better. HOWEVER, the GREATLY weakened MWC has inflated the w/l record relative to previous coaches and he isn't nearly as handicapped with respect to budgets and facilities.

If he gets an offense that is at least middle of CFB, then I think the program will be set. Until he shows he can consistently field an effective offense (not air raid; just effective), I don't think he's demonstrated much beyond what our past coaches have. The w/l record is more a function of a weaker schedule. I'm in full support of Bohl and believe he'll get the offense fixed.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

On a different note relative to where we are heading, Bohl has to show he can win without Josh Allen. Yes, I give all the credit in the world to Bohl and Vigen for identifying a diamond in the rough to provide 2 solid years. However, Bohl has coached 7 seasons and is 14-24 in conference without Josh Allen. He also hasn't been above .500 in a weak MWC without Josh. Either figure something out on offense, or he needs to find another future top 10 draft pick at QB.