TV ratings and gambling lines

[ragtimejoe1]

I saw a story about this on ESPN and then found the article. First, to be clear, the authors looked at games with LARGE point spreads, so competitiveness was not the driving factor in the games they evaluated. Some comments directly from the primary article that I found interesting...

The illegal wagering market is even more robust according to the National Impact Gambling Study Commission, which has estimated illegal wagers on sport at $380 billion annually (American Gaming Association, 2014). If illegal wagers on college sport are proportionate to these figures, this would constitute over $126 billion in annual unregulated wagering on NCAA games.

A positive relationship between television viewership and the gambling market would signify that the NCAA and its member institutions stand to benefit from sports wagering. Of course the NCAA outwardly rejects any association between its product and gambling.

Numerous models find support for the longstanding contention that television ratings are indeed influenced by the relationship between game dynamics and the wagering market. Ratings are higher in contests where the scoring margin moves closer to the closing line point spread, despite the fact that the outcome of the contest is already largely determined. Evidence also suggests consumers are sensitive to outcomes relative to the totals market. Considering the size of television broadcast rights contracts, the NCAA and its member universities stand to benefit when uncertainty relative to wagering market outcomes is increased.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176515001937" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They looked exclusively at the Pac12. I wonder what type (if any) impact this has on our TV ratings? It also throws a bit of a wrench into the market evaluation for conference expansion. Interesting article.