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This saturday's point spread action

B

bladerunnr

Well-known member
Fellow Pokes,

As this is a bye week, I thought I'd share my thoughts on saturday's games.

K-State -11 at Kansas - I've been riding K-state all year - great qb and they don't beat themselves. Turner Gill has been a real disaster for Kansas.

Oregon -32 at Colorado - It doesn't matter who plays qb for Oregon - CU is in complete disarray - they will be coach shopping again in 2 years.

Boise St. -31 at Air force - This is the worst Air Force team in many years and their defense is ill-equiped to stop a passing game like Boise's.

Last week, I was 2-0 with K-state on the moneyline at TT and the Eagles over the Redskins ( I knew Grossman would live up to his nickname "Hex")
 
bladerunnr said:
Oregon -32 at Colorado - It doesn't matter who plays qb for Oregon - CU is in complete disarray - they will be coach shopping again in 2 years.
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Agree with the spread, but not the coaching change. Remember McCartney only won 7 games in his first three seasons at Colorado, including a 1-10. CU is way too far left to fire a coach that soon.
 
bladerunnr said:
Fellow Pokes,

As this is a bye week, I thought I'd share my thoughts on saturday's games.

K-State -11 at Kansas - I've been riding K-state all year - great qb and they don't beat themselves. Turner Gill has been a real disaster for Kansas.

Oregon -32 at Colorado - It doesn't matter who plays qb for Oregon - CU is in complete disarray - they will be coach shopping again in 2 years.

Boise St. -31 at Air force - This is the worst Air Force team in many years and their defense is ill-equiped to stop a passing game like Boise's.

Last week, I was 2-0 with K-state on the moneyline at TT and the Eagles over the Redskins ( I knew Grossman would live up to his nickname "Hex")
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What's up bladerunner?? I think most of those teams could cover that shit! What you got for the World Series??
 
Lax,

I like St. Louis. But I never bet baseball. I find it the hardest sport to predict. Should be a great series though.

In regards to my picks, I stand behind them....or should I say, I'm betting on it. I think the only way Boise and Oregon don't cover is if they take their foot off the throttle. Boise could could have scored 80 last week if they wanted to. CU has the worst defense in the Pac 12. My basic premise is this: with the bcs point system structure as it is, teams are rewarded for running up the score. Boise has to - their schedule is too weak.
 
Bladerunnr,

I'll be in Vegas for the weekend looking to spend some time at my favorite local sports books.

What do you think about La. Tech at Utah St.? USU is giving 6.5. I think they cover that by halftime and I spend the second half talking to dancing girls.

Like your other picks, except for Boise St - AFA. Thirty-one points is a tall order to cover against a scheme centered around ball control like AFA, even if they are a little down.
 
Best bet on the board is Notre Dame - 8.5 against U.S.C.

Notre Dame coming off of a bye at home against a U.S.C. team that hasn't beat anyone worth a crap. Only reason U.S.C. beat Cal last week is because Maynard is the worst QB I have seen in the FBS this year. Guy is terrible. Notre Dame will shred their defense. That is my top bet this week.

Also like Nevada - 10.5 against Fresno. Indiana +23 against Iowa and The OVER in the Texas A&M/ Iowa St. game.
 
Hi Cup!

What's your favorite sports book? I like the mirage and the Bellagio. I have been placing all my bets this year on bodog but I will be heading to Vegas as the weather gets colder.

I do not understand Utah St.. Other than killing us, what have they done? Lost at home to csewe and then they lose by 10 to a mediocre fresno st. team last week. One factor I may have not considered in the Air force - Boise st. game is the wind. I remember going down to the springs 2 years ago when we played them and that wind was cold and strong. ACS had a helluva time trying to throw and we lost 10-0.

However, air force has already been blown out at home by tcu and they gave up 41 at home to SDS just 10 days ago. I expect the wind to provide more resistance than the air farce defense, even if it's just a gentle breeze.

2 other games I'm looking at: TCU -41 vs. new Mexico. It's a lot of points but new mexico may be the worst team in the country. In fact, their losses to Arkansas, Nevada, and TT were all by 42 points or more.

csewe +7.5 at Utep - utep's 3 wins are NM state, stony brook, and tulane. I think csewe is not good but this line might be an over reaction to their Boise st. beat down. They are already calling for Fairchild's head so we'll see if the players man up for him saturday.
 
I'm pretty sure the Boise State - Air Force game is in Boise this year. Not saying Boise still doesn't win by 1000, but who knows?
 
hithere said:
I'm pretty sure the Boise State - Air Force game is in Boise this year. Not saying Boise still doesn't win by 1000, but who knows?
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You are right! I misread the line sheet. I may double up now!
 
I'm looking at it as it's LaTech's second straight week flying west (they were in Idaho last week) and they are starting a freshman quarterback against a Utah State team that, to me, looked like they have the athletes to bury a team if they get the opportunity, i.e. a tired or distracted squad coming in with a freshman QB.

My favorite book in Vegas is out of town at a place called the M Resort. They introduced the in-running gambling. If you've never done it, you go into the sportsbook and they give you this ipad-looking device. You deposit some money in an account, and then in real-time as the games are happening different bets become available. You can bet, during a game and with odds, on anything from whether the next play will get a first down to whether a drive will end in a field goal or an interception. It's more addicting than crack cocaine.
 
And as long as we're talking gambling, I would throw this out there. If you compile the Against The Spread records of the top team in each conference, the conference leaders are 54-12 ATS (a win percentage of .818) this year. That's astounding.

The question is which way do you look at it? Do you try to ride the trend, take all of the conference leaders to cover, and win 8 out of 10 if the trend holds true?

Or do you believe in the mathematical fundamentals that eventually will take hold? ATS rankings always regress to the mean. At the end of the year, chances are a team's ATS record will be something in the neighborhood of 5-5, plus one or two on a certain side. It's just the way it works. So under that theory, I am tempted to bet on the grinding ability of math and fade all of the conference leaders this week with the understanding that their ATS results will come back to earth sooner or later, and that it has to start sometime.

This is maybe why I love gambling on sports.
 
A few websites I really like and what I consider essential:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/college The FEI and S&P statistics make me money.
http://www.footballstudyhall.com I could read Bill Connelly all day.
http://www.vegasinsider.com
http://www.philsteele.com
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/mainpage.jsp

And a few that are interesting:
http://pregame.com/p/sportsbook-spy.aspx?sport=cfb supposedly has "real time" data on how action fluctuates...
http://www.sbrforum.com/college-football/odds-scores/20090905/ A good site that archives lines; the link is arbitrarily from 9/5/2009.

Mr. Bladerunnr here on this forum has been killing it the last few weeks on the picks he's shared and I'm almost tempted to side with him this week on a regular parlay. Exclusively betting chalk vs. fading will always be debatable. I've no idea on spreads, I like moneyline parlays.
 
TheCup said:
I'm looking at it as it's LaTech's second straight week flying west (they were in Idaho last week) and they are starting a freshman quarterback against a Utah State team that, to me, looked like they have the athletes to bury a team if they get the opportunity, i.e. a tired or distracted squad coming in with a freshman QB.

My favorite book in Vegas is out of town at a place called the M Resort. They introduced the in-running gambling. If you've never done it, you go into the sportsbook and they give you this ipad-looking device. You deposit some money in an account, and then in real-time as the games are happening different bets become available. You can bet, during a game and with odds, on anything from whether the next play will get a first down to whether a drive will end in a field goal or an interception. It's more addicting than crack cocaine.
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They have live betting at some of the casinos on the strip also. It's too frenetic for me. I usuallly lose my money playing video poker at the bar while I'm watching the games.

Over the years, I've done much better early in the year than the 1/2 way point and later. As the season wears on, the bookmakers spot the trends and adjust the lines accordingly. Certain teams seem to cover a lot. Boise St. has been incredible in recent years. Of course, just when you think it's foolproof, they blow it like the Nevada game last year.
One quick boring story: I had a booky back in the 80's who had a standing bet every week with anyone who wanted it. There would be about 30 college games with lines in the local paper during the week. The bettor could move the line on each game 30 points either way. You had to pick all 30 games right. No one ever won the bet! Just an example, in last years border war, Wyo. was about a 3 pt.dog. If you took csewe, 30 points weren't nearly enough.
 
No way would I throw money on Boise with that spread! Peterson absolutely will not run it up against them, he is on record as saying he respects the Air Force tremendously. Boise has the potential to win by 60, but I'd bet its more like 21.
 
TheCup said:
And as long as we're talking gambling, I would throw this out there. If you compile the Against The Spread records of the top team in each conference, the conference leaders are 54-12 ATS (a win percentage of .818) this year. That's astounding.

The question is which way do you look at it? Do you try to ride the trend, take all of the conference leaders to cover, and win 8 out of 10 if the trend holds true?

Or do you believe in the mathematical fundamentals that eventually will take hold? ATS rankings always regress to the mean. At the end of the year, chances are a team's ATS record will be something in the neighborhood of 5-5, plus one or two on a certain side. It's just the way it works. So under that theory, I am tempted to bet on the grinding ability of math and fade all of the conference leaders this week with the understanding that their ATS results will come back to earth sooner or later, and that it has to start sometime.

This is maybe why I love gambling on sports.
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I think you are going to see this trend start to reverse this weekend. I think Missouri has a good chance to cover against Okie St., Michigan St. has a good chance to cover against Wisky as long as they don't have a let down after that big Michigan win.

Boise has a huge spread to cover and like the poster above me said Petersen isn't the type to run it up on a service academy even though Boise probably could if they wanted to.

Bama will probably cover.

I still love Notre Dame this weekend coming off of a bye. Probably tease it with another game.
 
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