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This is a surprise. We are +13 vs Air Farce

B

bladerunnr

Well-known member
I'm a little surprised. This could be a great opportunity to bet us on the moneyline. This is a game we really need and can win. We won't be outsized up front. Air force has been very vulnerable to the pass this year.

Weather forecast in the Springs says high of 56. Fellow Pokes, if you have never been to the Academy for a game, it's a great experience. Awesome flyover before the game and usually some sort of stunt with the falcon. We had a great win there in 2005 when Bramlett took us the length of the field in the last 2 minutes. We were competitive in 2007 and lost 10-0 in 2009. It would be great to win down there as it might be the last time we ever play them.

A quick note regarding the past weekends action: New Mexico finally covered ( a loss) but Kansas st. came right back with an easy cover vs. Oky State. I stayed clear of the Alabama-Lsu snorefest. As the season wears on, it gets harder to find bad lines. I bet the Giants on the money line today (+350) for a nice win but lost on the Raiders.

happy betting and GO POKES!
 
I agree, I am definately betting this game, ML should be around +500 or so, but every game in series is close so the points seems like a no-brainer :twocents:
 
I got TCU +15.5 and Wyo +13 at Wynn today as soon as their lines came out. Should be interesting to see what the money lines come in at. As of now they'd be around +400-500.
 
I'm seeing Wyoming at +400 this morning and 100% agree that this spread opened really high. But at this point in the season handicappers are crazy like a fox. They know what they're doing... I guess.

I'll be betting Wyo ML though because I think they win outright. Very interested to see how these lines move by Friday.
 
I think the idea is that the Pokes are 115th of the 120 schools against the rush. AFA is number 4 in rushing. That is not a good matchup.
 
Adv8RU12 said:
I think the idea is that the Pokes are 115th of the 120 schools against the rush. AFA is number 4 in rushing. That is not a good matchup.
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This. Our rushing defense is abysmal. TCU made us look like a high school team trying to stop the run on Saturday. I don't know why we would get any love from oddsmakers against Air Force after that performance. The TCU game was not nearly as close as the score indicated thanks to turnovers - no one would blink about getting 13 against Air Force if TCU had only turned it over three times instead of five and beaten us 45-20.
 
Cowduck said:
Adv8RU12 said:
I think the idea is that the Pokes are 115th of the 120 schools against the rush. AFA is number 4 in rushing. That is not a good matchup.
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This. Our rushing defense is abysmal. TCU made us look like a high school team trying to stop the run on Saturday. I don't know why we would get any love from oddsmakers against Air Force after that performance. The TCU game was not nearly as close as the score indicated thanks to turnovers - no one would blink about getting 13 against Air Force if TCU had only turned it over three times instead of five and beaten us 45-20.
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Thing is, when you're reconciling AFA's rush offense against any team's defense, it's not the rush defense numbers that give you a good read, it's the pass defense. AFA's rush attacks the corners, not the gaps. It's what a lot of non-MWC fans don't know about AFA's triple option. Their line is undersized and their plays develop in the backfield, not at the line. The best way to defend them is to bring your safeties and corners up to seal off the ends and play run contain underneath. Their bread and butter is averaging 3 yards per carry. Just 1 yard less and they starve. It's arduous and monotonous, that's by design. The idea is to wear a less-conditioned team down and take advantage of mistakes. The best way to beat them is to hit the quarterback on every down. Jefferson's not at 100% after his nose fracture. Give up a few pass plays for some hard hits on him and win the psychological game early. If our LB's get some roaming time in their offensive backfield, we'll win.
 
True, true. Just going off stats:

Air Force rush defense is no gem either. Ranked 111th through 9 games with 1973 net on 394 carries. Wyoming is 115th with 1852 net on 352 carries. And scoring defense, which I personally value more when it comes to NCAA stats, is comparable. Air Force allowing 264 through 9 games and Wyoming 242 through 8. Keeping in mind the outliers that I consider to be Utah State and Weber; Air Force had Notre Dame, Boise State, TCU, Navy and SDSU all putting up 34+. Wyoming offense is vastly improved this year.

And non stat related, historically lines have increased in the last couple of years. http://www.philsteele.com/Pdf/Last_xx_years/2011/MWC/wyoming/WY_AF.pdf As a fan though, I just got used to these games never going more than three years in a row to either team. Five in a row now.

How the schedule set up this year favored Wyoming a lot, in my opinion. Playing Nebraska at home before their first ever B1G conference game, playing TCU before their "huge" game with Boise State and playing Air Force the week after likely clinching the Commander in Chief's trophy with an emotional game against Army and a likely let down, all looked pretty good for Wyoming. Hopefully they don't go 0-3 because again, as a fan, I consider this game one that the Cowboys should win.
 
The fact they released this line so high makes me think Wyoming is going to get beat by 3 td's this game. Hope I'm wrong but I am surprised by this high line. I know it has a lot to do with our run defense but this line looks seriously too high and that makes me think Vegas thinks we are going to get run out of the stadium.

Another thing is I wonder if Smith will be able to play close to 100%? If we do have to put our back up in then we are screwed. We will not score. Hope Wyoming wins this game so we can go to a better bowl than the New Mexico bowl. I think Vegas will take us if we win 8 games atleast and Boise goes to a BCS game.
 
I feel like this game is going to yield ungodly offensive stats. We have a major edge in the passing game, our O-line has been a nice surprise, and the Zoomies are (barely) marginally better on rush D. I predict a shootout.

Smith has a career game because he's pissed, AA grows a pair and runs north instead of dancing in place, and if our D keeps missing tackles, DC goes Locksley on English.
 
I think losing Ghaali will have a big impact on this game, unfortunately. He gave us a completely different dimension with the run game.
 
Asmodeanreborn said:
I think losing Ghaali will have a big impact on this game, unfortunately. He gave us a completely different dimension with the run game.
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I don't feel very good about it.

I also don't feel very good about pulling Sutton's redshirt off with 4(5) games left either. Not even really because he'll lose that extra year but because he has been, in effect, mentally shut down all year. You approach things differently knowing you don't play in games on a weekly basis, now all of a sudden you are during the most crucial part in the season. Gotta be tough to do. Will be interesting.
 
I think we have enough weapons to score a lot of points. Herron and McNeil should be able to get open against a very soft pass defense and that should open up the run game for Alexander. I just got Wyoming +14 on bodog. Remember, the linemaker only sets the line to get equal action on both sides. Air force is a team that has a national reputation and we have been pretty weak in recent years. But we almost always play Air Force close.

Look at last night. Chicago was +8 and +275 on the moneyline. I took them on the ml. How can they be that big an underdog to a 3-4 phily team that has no run defense and a qb who throws a lot of picks? Part of its home field and part of it's perception that vick is great and Cutler is a turnover machine. In reality, it's been just the reverse this season. Yet, the line never moved. So the linemaker achieved his objective.
 
seattlecowboy said:
The fact they released this line so high makes me think Wyoming is going to get beat by 3 td's this game. Hope I'm wrong but I am surprised by this high line. I know it has a lot to do with our run defense but this line looks seriously too high and that makes me think Vegas thinks we are going to get run out of the stadium.

Another thing is I wonder if Smith will be able to play close to 100%? If we do have to put our back up in then we are screwed. We will not score. Hope Wyoming wins this game so we can go to a better bowl than the New Mexico bowl. I think Vegas will take us if we win 8 games atleast and Boise goes to a BCS game.
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I wouldn't use the oddsmakers' line to forecast this game. They've only gotten it right 3 times out of the last 10 going back to last year. It's kind of like relying on the umbrella salesman's weather report.
 
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