PorkerPoke
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MWC Survivability
The only way I see the MWC surviving is if there are at least 6 remaining teams in the conference after the pilfering is complete. As of September 13, 2024 there are 8 teams still committed to the future MWC. How long that lasts depends on any additional P12 moves which reportedly will be decided upon by the 6 teams announced as the future P12. Like it or not, CSU will now have a vote on destruction of the MWC by the inclusion or exclusion of members.
The MWC will be destroyed by others
The P12 would benefit from destroying the MWC to eliminate competition for TV revenue in the west. One less conference - not necessarily less FBS teams. While the P12 is hopeful that the ACC implodes bringing Stanford and Cal back into the conference, the P12 cannot sit idly by as there are significant legal issues before those teams would become available. Since the P12 has to add at least 2 more teams for 2026, the AAC and MWC teams are the likeliest sources for the P12 to try and entice. The AAC has a better TV deal than the MWC does and the prognosticators are hinting that the P12 with the current 6 is unlikely to exceed that deal with any significance. If the P12 wants to try and weaken the AAC, they will need to finish the MWC off by taking UNLV and AFA then get any or all of Memphis, Tulane, North Texas and UTSA. The AAC may be vulnerable with a $10 million exit fee but with a 27 month notice requirement it will cost more but potentially less than the current MWC exit fees to the P12. The AAC will survive because they can always pursue the Sun Belt where the last vestige of more lucrative teams exist because desirable programs won't come from the MAC or the CUSA.
If the P12 doesn’t pursue AFA the AAC is very likely to pounce on AFA if they feel the $17 million buyout is worth it. If the P12 takes just one more MWC team, it puts the MWC in a have to expand or disband which is a potential dagger to any remaining member. It would be difficult for AFA to refuse to join Army and Navy as conference mates thereby avoiding the mess of a compromised MWC desperately trying to add CUSA teams or ask FCS teams to move to FBS.
Bottom line is both the P12 and AAC have an interest in destroying the MWC as a viable conference. Their only remaining competitors for a slice of available TV money (with AFA being the sole remaining "national interest") would be the Sun Belt, MAC and CUSA.
Conclusion - consider AFA gone from the MWC.
How it happens
The first move expected is the P12 adds UNLV to control the Las Vegas market once various politics are resolved.
The second move is who wants AFA. I can see the AAC moving quickly to offer AFA even if no other programs leave the AAC to counter the P12 if the P12 waits too long.
Once the dust settles on the moves with those 2 MWC programs, then the backfill process begins to add teams. If the P12 does not want to stop at 8 teams, then the P12 can continue to look anywhere for programs that fit the "metrics". The AAC currently holds the most teams that fulfill the desired metrics. The remaining MWC programs once any pursuit of AAC programs is complete are the next most viable option. There simply aren't any overwhelming options in the Sun Belt, MAC or CUSA. Therefore, if the P12 is unable to entice a single AAC program and AFA goes to the AAC then these teams are back on the table for P12 consideration:
Nevada
SJSU
UNM
USU
Wyoming
Hawaii
Who and how many would the P12 be interested in will determine how many leftovers are still in the rapidly becoming defunct MWC. Rumors say Nevada and USU are actually more desirable than the others. We may all be surprised at future moves and ecstatic if Wyoming was included. I will not hold my breath Wyoming is included and will not be any differently disappointed if the MWC cease to exist.
Future scenarios for the "leftovers"
Once the MWC is reduced below the 8 team minimum they will have to pursue the addition of other teams. If the MWC falls below 6 members the task becomes more challenging. 6 is the key number for this round of conference moves if the MWC is able to survive. 5 remaining programs might be the limit of survivability but 4 or less very likely means the MWC is done unless the entire CUSA votes to become members of the MWC.
The El Paso news has written that UTEP and NMSU need a better conference than the CUSA. Currently it would cost over $3 million in exit fees to leave the CUSA. When UNLV and AFA leave, these two FBS teams are the best geographically but they really don't offer any benefit over trying to lure a couple of Big Sky or Missouri Valley teams to join the FBS in terms of TV markets other than there would be no transition period. Montana, Montana State, NDSU or South Dakota State would potentially bring just as much excitement to a conference football game in Laramie as NMSU or UTEP would. Maybe UTEP and NMSU would tip the scales a bit more in Albuquerque, but not really anywhere else.
The big question is how many teams from the current 8 MWC teams remain once the latest round of rearranging is completed. It is somewhat ironic that the MWC has the potential to implode just like the P12 did, be left with some cash resources and perhaps in a position to cannibalize the CUSA. Besides UTEP and NMSU there is nothing left geographically. There are zero CUSA programs that bring potential additional TV revenue as they get about $800,000 per year. The fewer remaining MWC programs there are would mean expending considerable cash from the departure of others to basically merge with the CUSA. The CUSA has 10 teams. The MWC could entice away the best programs to get to an 8 program conference and still have a better TV deal than the CUSA has while retaining the MWC brand which would also destroy the CUSA as their only survivability option would be to get additional FCS programs to become FBS.
Perhaps the remaining MWC members can spend enough to entice the name FCS programs to commit to becoming FBS. It would make some news, but it won't really move the needle much regarding a TV package. Maybe the Montana programs along with NDSU would actually do more for TV interest that anything from the CUSA. But, we are perhaps talking the difference of maybe $200,000 a year to maybe no difference whatsoever.
Wyoming options
Should Wyoming find itself in the group of left behind teams it may be better to accept the cash from the dissolution of the MWC and suck up the fact to play in the FBS they will be in a CUSA alignment of last resort unwanted teams unable to move the needle of excitement and basically a money pit. At least they could be the next Liberty with a soft schedule, go undefeated and be the highest ranked G conference team gaining a lucrative playoff spot. Like LLoyd said in Dumber and Dumber, "There is a chance" even if it is one in a million.
If the remaining MWC is unable to assemble programs from other conferences or the FCS then it raises the issue of reduced options for the leftover programs. Apply to join the CUSA or MAC (I doubt the AAC or Sun Belt would have any interest) or become an independent. The CUSA is the most likely scenario as the MAC is pretty much a closed society with the AAC/Sun Belt looking at us as worse than kissing your zit covered sister. Playing as an independent would mean maybe 2-3 home games at a price and mostly playing body bag road games like a cheap whore willing to do almost anything for a nickel.
Then the question to seriously consider would be is it better to reduce staff costs and scholarships in becoming an FCS program. It could turn out with the facilities and some of the best NIL funds amongst the FCS that for those Wyoming fans still interested in football, the program might be competitive at home playing against top 25 FCS teams. With guidance of leaders in our athletic department, Wyoming fans could still enjoy proclaiming front range dominance by beating UNC.
This sarcasm is unavoidable but actually may have some truth to it. I know I feel disgusted when thinking about this and I am sure how most Wyoming fans feel about the FCS, but doesn't it sound pretty exciting if we were able to go 6-6 and feel in late October there was still a chance at a post season playoff game? Maybe once in every 10 years the program would make a first round playoff road game to an exotic location like McNeese State in Louisiana where faithful Wyoming fans could still play golf on green grass in early December with Heath Schroyer.
Nothing would have changed (other than it is FCS) and the marginal status quo of success which the UW admin has determined is so comforting to the Wyoming fans would make the football world a much better place.
Let's face it - Wyoming is a sparsely populated state and very little could be done to make the program relative in the current age other than if it had been a long term perennial winner and national darling like that blue turf program from Idaho.
The only way I see the MWC surviving is if there are at least 6 remaining teams in the conference after the pilfering is complete. As of September 13, 2024 there are 8 teams still committed to the future MWC. How long that lasts depends on any additional P12 moves which reportedly will be decided upon by the 6 teams announced as the future P12. Like it or not, CSU will now have a vote on destruction of the MWC by the inclusion or exclusion of members.
The MWC will be destroyed by others
The P12 would benefit from destroying the MWC to eliminate competition for TV revenue in the west. One less conference - not necessarily less FBS teams. While the P12 is hopeful that the ACC implodes bringing Stanford and Cal back into the conference, the P12 cannot sit idly by as there are significant legal issues before those teams would become available. Since the P12 has to add at least 2 more teams for 2026, the AAC and MWC teams are the likeliest sources for the P12 to try and entice. The AAC has a better TV deal than the MWC does and the prognosticators are hinting that the P12 with the current 6 is unlikely to exceed that deal with any significance. If the P12 wants to try and weaken the AAC, they will need to finish the MWC off by taking UNLV and AFA then get any or all of Memphis, Tulane, North Texas and UTSA. The AAC may be vulnerable with a $10 million exit fee but with a 27 month notice requirement it will cost more but potentially less than the current MWC exit fees to the P12. The AAC will survive because they can always pursue the Sun Belt where the last vestige of more lucrative teams exist because desirable programs won't come from the MAC or the CUSA.
If the P12 doesn’t pursue AFA the AAC is very likely to pounce on AFA if they feel the $17 million buyout is worth it. If the P12 takes just one more MWC team, it puts the MWC in a have to expand or disband which is a potential dagger to any remaining member. It would be difficult for AFA to refuse to join Army and Navy as conference mates thereby avoiding the mess of a compromised MWC desperately trying to add CUSA teams or ask FCS teams to move to FBS.
Bottom line is both the P12 and AAC have an interest in destroying the MWC as a viable conference. Their only remaining competitors for a slice of available TV money (with AFA being the sole remaining "national interest") would be the Sun Belt, MAC and CUSA.
Conclusion - consider AFA gone from the MWC.
How it happens
The first move expected is the P12 adds UNLV to control the Las Vegas market once various politics are resolved.
The second move is who wants AFA. I can see the AAC moving quickly to offer AFA even if no other programs leave the AAC to counter the P12 if the P12 waits too long.
Once the dust settles on the moves with those 2 MWC programs, then the backfill process begins to add teams. If the P12 does not want to stop at 8 teams, then the P12 can continue to look anywhere for programs that fit the "metrics". The AAC currently holds the most teams that fulfill the desired metrics. The remaining MWC programs once any pursuit of AAC programs is complete are the next most viable option. There simply aren't any overwhelming options in the Sun Belt, MAC or CUSA. Therefore, if the P12 is unable to entice a single AAC program and AFA goes to the AAC then these teams are back on the table for P12 consideration:
Nevada
SJSU
UNM
USU
Wyoming
Hawaii
Who and how many would the P12 be interested in will determine how many leftovers are still in the rapidly becoming defunct MWC. Rumors say Nevada and USU are actually more desirable than the others. We may all be surprised at future moves and ecstatic if Wyoming was included. I will not hold my breath Wyoming is included and will not be any differently disappointed if the MWC cease to exist.
Future scenarios for the "leftovers"
Once the MWC is reduced below the 8 team minimum they will have to pursue the addition of other teams. If the MWC falls below 6 members the task becomes more challenging. 6 is the key number for this round of conference moves if the MWC is able to survive. 5 remaining programs might be the limit of survivability but 4 or less very likely means the MWC is done unless the entire CUSA votes to become members of the MWC.
The El Paso news has written that UTEP and NMSU need a better conference than the CUSA. Currently it would cost over $3 million in exit fees to leave the CUSA. When UNLV and AFA leave, these two FBS teams are the best geographically but they really don't offer any benefit over trying to lure a couple of Big Sky or Missouri Valley teams to join the FBS in terms of TV markets other than there would be no transition period. Montana, Montana State, NDSU or South Dakota State would potentially bring just as much excitement to a conference football game in Laramie as NMSU or UTEP would. Maybe UTEP and NMSU would tip the scales a bit more in Albuquerque, but not really anywhere else.
The big question is how many teams from the current 8 MWC teams remain once the latest round of rearranging is completed. It is somewhat ironic that the MWC has the potential to implode just like the P12 did, be left with some cash resources and perhaps in a position to cannibalize the CUSA. Besides UTEP and NMSU there is nothing left geographically. There are zero CUSA programs that bring potential additional TV revenue as they get about $800,000 per year. The fewer remaining MWC programs there are would mean expending considerable cash from the departure of others to basically merge with the CUSA. The CUSA has 10 teams. The MWC could entice away the best programs to get to an 8 program conference and still have a better TV deal than the CUSA has while retaining the MWC brand which would also destroy the CUSA as their only survivability option would be to get additional FCS programs to become FBS.
Perhaps the remaining MWC members can spend enough to entice the name FCS programs to commit to becoming FBS. It would make some news, but it won't really move the needle much regarding a TV package. Maybe the Montana programs along with NDSU would actually do more for TV interest that anything from the CUSA. But, we are perhaps talking the difference of maybe $200,000 a year to maybe no difference whatsoever.
Wyoming options
Should Wyoming find itself in the group of left behind teams it may be better to accept the cash from the dissolution of the MWC and suck up the fact to play in the FBS they will be in a CUSA alignment of last resort unwanted teams unable to move the needle of excitement and basically a money pit. At least they could be the next Liberty with a soft schedule, go undefeated and be the highest ranked G conference team gaining a lucrative playoff spot. Like LLoyd said in Dumber and Dumber, "There is a chance" even if it is one in a million.
If the remaining MWC is unable to assemble programs from other conferences or the FCS then it raises the issue of reduced options for the leftover programs. Apply to join the CUSA or MAC (I doubt the AAC or Sun Belt would have any interest) or become an independent. The CUSA is the most likely scenario as the MAC is pretty much a closed society with the AAC/Sun Belt looking at us as worse than kissing your zit covered sister. Playing as an independent would mean maybe 2-3 home games at a price and mostly playing body bag road games like a cheap whore willing to do almost anything for a nickel.
Then the question to seriously consider would be is it better to reduce staff costs and scholarships in becoming an FCS program. It could turn out with the facilities and some of the best NIL funds amongst the FCS that for those Wyoming fans still interested in football, the program might be competitive at home playing against top 25 FCS teams. With guidance of leaders in our athletic department, Wyoming fans could still enjoy proclaiming front range dominance by beating UNC.
This sarcasm is unavoidable but actually may have some truth to it. I know I feel disgusted when thinking about this and I am sure how most Wyoming fans feel about the FCS, but doesn't it sound pretty exciting if we were able to go 6-6 and feel in late October there was still a chance at a post season playoff game? Maybe once in every 10 years the program would make a first round playoff road game to an exotic location like McNeese State in Louisiana where faithful Wyoming fans could still play golf on green grass in early December with Heath Schroyer.
Nothing would have changed (other than it is FCS) and the marginal status quo of success which the UW admin has determined is so comforting to the Wyoming fans would make the football world a much better place.
Let's face it - Wyoming is a sparsely populated state and very little could be done to make the program relative in the current age other than if it had been a long term perennial winner and national darling like that blue turf program from Idaho.
