It's all back room deals and finding the best fit to sell the most tickets. Because pretty much every non-BCS bowl will be on ESPN in evening time slots sometime during the holidays TV ratings aren't as important IMO. They're all just a big wash. It's all about selling the most tickets.
If I'm the Independence Bowl I think TCU is a lot more attractive than Wyoming (only 3.5 hour drive from Ft. Worth). If I'm the Vegas Bowl Wyoming is a lot more attractive than TCU (withing driving distance, history of good showing there). Both bowls would, IMO, come to a mutual understanding that finds WYO in Vegas and TCU in LA regardless of order of finish.
The only way TCU gets picked above WYO for the Vegas Bowl is if Wyoming crawls into bowl eligibility with little momentum and TCU finishes very strong. Then a 9-3, ranked TCU is probably more attractive than a hobbled 7-5 Wyoming. But even then I'd have my doubts.
There are a lot of variables though too. How does SDSU finish? Or AFA?
Who knows, maybe we won't even be bowl eligible with all of us writing about it. Talk about jinx.