Nut-cruch time update

[307bball]

Two weeks left in the regular season...

If Wyoming or BSU win out...I think that wins the conference. It's unlikely that they both win out. If they both win out...I don't know what the tie breaking scenario is for seeding at the MW tournament.

If Wyoming is as good as their record, we will have wins against Nevada and Fresno.

I am still holding to my prediction that the winner (or co-winners) of the conference will have three losses. In the remaining games for Wyoming, the only two outcomes I would bet against are 5-0 and 0-5. I really think we beat CSU on Wednesday. It's a good matchup for us and unless two of their top three guys go off...I think we can get it done.

What about SDSU?...they have comfortably won their last four after getting a narrow win at Nevada. The last win at Freson was particularly impressive. the suds have great athletes and can disappear offensively. I've seen better SDSU squads come into Laramie and not play well. This will be tough for the Aztecs.... buuuuut, athletic pressuring teams are our kryptonite. I really have no clue on this one.

The next game I'm looking hard at is the UNLV game. Like playing at the pit, the Thomas & Mack has not been kind to us historically. I just don't think the Cowboys will be able to get it done. This is on the road at a place we don't play well historically, against a team capable of doing what UNM did to us, with one day separating what I'm guessing will have been a tough game against SDSU. I don't think we win this one.

Obviously...one game at a time and all that but as fans we get to look ahead and prognosticate. Go Pokes!

 

[seattlecowboy]

If Wyoming and Boise tie for the MWC regular season champion, then the tiebreaker goes to how they did head to head.

Since they split, then the next tiebreaker is how you did against the next highest team in the rankings. Right now that team is CSU.

So as of right now, Wyoming holds the tiebreaker since Wyoming beat CSU and Boise lost to them.

 

[307bball]

If Wyoming and Boise tie for the MWC regular season champion, then the tiebreaker goes to how they did head to head.

Since they split, then the next tiebreaker is how you did against the next highest team in the rankings. Right now that team is CSU.

So as of right now, Wyoming holds the tiebreaker since Wyoming beat CSU and Boise lost to them.

Thx for the information.

 

[307bball]

Well...bummer.

I really thought the boys would get that one. If you are a top team in the conference it's not the end of the world to lose on the road to another top conference foe but it still stings. That UNM loss is looming large.

BSU may have sewn up the regular season crown with their win over SDSU. The crucible of the stretch run is revealing some cracks in the pokes impressive record. Teams now have the recipe to make it rough on us. Maldo is struggling when he is the focus of the defense, Drake and X and Maldo need to be more of a big three and not defer to Maldo so much. Ike disappearing is not a huge red flag to me....CSU warped their defense to stop him .... it's really possible to take a big man out of the game in college basketball. You have to have the perimeter guys step up when that happens. Drake stepped up but Maldo's poor game completely nullified it.

As far as an at-large bid....I think we get one if we win out. If we drop one more, we will need to go deep in the MWC tournament if not win it to make the big dance.

 

[307bball]

Sometimes the conference race comes down to a few teams running away with it and sometimes it comes down to what teams makes the least errors. This season feels like the latter. Wyoming's toe stub against UNM was critical. For the top 4 MWC teams at this point:

BSU: Controls their own destiny. I think they lose at CSU but it may not matter.

WYO: IMO, toughest remaining slate starting with a really tough tilt against SDSU followed by a quick trip to Vegas to take on a hot/cold rebel team.

CSU: 4 conference losses....only one game left at home against BSU. Pretty much the only chance for Wyoming to share the regular season title is for CSU to get this victory.

SDSU: If they can win the game in Laramie tonight, they set the conference up for a log-jam of 4 loss teams in second place.

Here's how I see it shaking out:

1. BSU 15-3
2.WYO 14-4
2. CSU 14-4
4. SDSU 12-5

 

[307bball]

Man oh man... Pokes got to a plateau and have been unable to get to that next level. I don't think they really got exposed so much as the MWC is really tough at the top.

Win the last two games and we get in to the dance I bet..... But it's by no means a sure thing

 

[laxwyo]

Man oh man... Pokes got to a plateau and have been unable to get to that next level. I don't think they really got exposed so much as the MWC is really tough at the top.

Win the last two games and we get in to the dance I bet..... But it's by no means a sure thing

We’ll be lucky to beat UNLV. We could easily drop the last 2

 

[307bball]

Man oh man... Pokes got to a plateau and have been unable to get to that next level. I don't think they really got exposed so much as the MWC is really tough at the top.

Win the last two games and we get in to the dance I bet..... But it's by no means a sure thing

We’ll be lucky to beat UNLV. We could easily drop the last 2

I don't think it will be easy but I would not classify beating UNLV this year as lucky. We are good enough to do it without luck.

 

[laxwyo]

Man oh man... Pokes got to a plateau and have been unable to get to that next level. I don't think they really got exposed so much as the MWC is really tough at the top.

Win the last two games and we get in to the dance I bet..... But it's by no means a sure thing

We’ll be lucky to beat UNLV. We could easily drop the last 2

I don't think it will be easy but I would not classify beating UNLV this year as lucky. We are good enough to do it without luck.

Most of our conference wins have been fairly lucky. We could have dropped several more up until now. We all knew we werent as good as our record and we’re regressing to our average. It was a good run, I had hoped god would let us have it this year

 

[307bball]

Man oh man... Pokes got to a plateau and have been unable to get to that next level. I don't think they really got exposed so much as the MWC is really tough at the top.

Win the last two games and we get in to the dance I bet..... But it's by no means a sure thing

We’ll be lucky to beat UNLV. We could easily drop the last 2

I don't think it will be easy but I would not classify beating UNLV this year as lucky. We are good enough to do it without luck.

Most of our conference wins have been fairly lucky. We could have dropped several more up until now. We all knew we werent as good as our record and we’re regressing to our average. It was a good run, I had hoped god would let us have it this year

I get what you're saying....I just think our "average" game beats UNLV's "average" game. That's all. By the same token... Was SDSU "lucky' to be so on fire in the first half and to get a below average game from Ike and Maldo? MW this year is really close competitive level. If you get a game where you don't have typical production or play an opponent with above average production, it's not going to go well. We definitely are not a great team... That's for sure.