No smack evaluation of the New Mexico Bowl

[Dread_Pirate_Cowboy]

Just for our visitors.....

We don't have any idea what will happen in Albequerque. I think we all feel very confident that the Pokes can win this game but could just as easily lose it. Both the offense and defense have been absolutely brilliant at times and absolutely horrendous at others. BYU came to laramie and 100% dominated every aspect of the game. It could have been 100-0. On the other hand, Texas came to Laramie and Wyoming held a lead til a few seconds before half time.....not just played them tough but actually held a lead for almost the entire first half.

The Wyo-AFA game is probably the most similar to the Wyo-Fresno match up. Wyoming ended up losing to AFA 10-0. I attended that one and through the first half, Wyo controlled the game and it was surprising we didn't score 2 or 3 times. More holding and false starts than I've ever seen in a game and they seemed to hit at drive killer times (like when a 3rd and 2 was converted in AFA territory -- penalty -- third and long and just out of field goal range). AFA's defense completely stuffed Wyo in the second half. Wyoming's performance against airforce, arguably a better running team than Fresno, gives me faith. Texas and TCU ran the ball on use well, but Fresno is not Texas or TCU.

The only bad loss of the season was to Colorado. This was the weekend after Texas and the first road game. The team was still in flux at this point, particularly QB and special teams. The team is different now than when playing CU as we have a new starting QB, many true freshman starting now that hardly played at CU, and special teams are no longer a dissaster (different kicker and field goal kicker and a lot more regulars playing special teams).

 

[Snowman_55]

Good evaluation. I would agree with most of that. However I'm not sure that AFA and Fresno are really that similar. Fresno would like nothing more than for this to be a high scoring shootout, lets face it this Fresno team plays like most of the teams in the old Wacky-WAC did. I really think this game comes down to one thing, our defense controlling the tempo early. Our offense has proven they can score points if they get in a rhythm (see NM or SDSU), but we are still young and if we get in a hole early it will be tough. Plus no matter how well our offense plays I just don't see us putting up 50 pts. If our defense holds Fresno, like they can we stand a good chance IMO, if it turns into a 40+ shootout I would have to give the advantage to Fresno.

 

[katjust]

I think that there is pretty good consensus that containing the run will be key for Wyoming. Limiting Fresno's offense is what Wyoming has to do. I agree that Wyoming will not, even on a very good day, score more than about 35 on Fresno. Now, I do think that they can score that much, but the offense has been inconsistent. Therefore, the keys, as I see them are:

Containing Fresno's run game (a good way to do this would be to take an early double digit lead, easier said than done)

Consistency and controlling time of possession on offense

Winning the turnover battle (I think UW has a good chance of doing that)

Not getting down early

 

[Yoda]

I don't even know how to spell Albuquerque -- that's the real reason that I didn't want to go to this bowl...

Air Force has a lot of yards rushing -- about 40 a game more than we do. But they emphasize the run so much that their yards per carry is a yard less than ours is. We have a passing game that Air Force doesn't have and we have a very strong receiving corps. My point being, I don't think you will be able to sell out against the run -- like I presume that teams do against Air Force, judging by their passing stats.

You say that we are no TCU or Texas but, on offense, we probably are. Or at least we are not as far off as you might think. TCU is the 5th rated running team; we're 7th and Texas is 55th. All three of us are in the top 20 or so in total offense. You can point out the differing SOSs and that the WAC has some cupcakes -- but so does the MWC and even Texas played some cupcakes (more out of conference than in it). Texas and TCU would kick our butts -- but more because of our (lack of) defense than our (very strong) offense.

Personally, I think this game is more for us to lose than for you to win. That's not intended as a put down -- you will have to play well to win under any circumstances. But if we can pass on you without turning the ball over, we should be able to run well and doing both scores big -- bigger, I think than your offense will be able to cover for. But if you can force some turnovers and prevent us from passing down field very often, then you may be able to slow our running game sufficiently that a strong offensive performance can take us. The key to stopping our running game is to limit our passing game.

I hope that doesn't sound too terribly arrogant.

Yoda out...

 

[calpoke25]

Just for our visitors.....

We don't have any idea what will happen in Albequerque. I think we all feel very confident that the Pokes can win this game but could just as easily lose it. Both the offense and defense have been absolutely brilliant at times and absolutely horrendous at others. BYU came to laramie and 100% dominated every aspect of the game. It could have been 100-0. On the other hand, Texas came to Laramie and Wyoming held a lead til a few seconds before half time.....not just played them tough but actually held a lead for almost the entire first half.

The Wyo-AFA game is probably the most similar to the Wyo-Fresno match up. Wyoming ended up losing to AFA 10-0. I attended that one and through the first half, Wyo controlled the game and it was surprising we didn't score 2 or 3 times. More holding and false starts than I've ever seen in a game and they seemed to hit at drive killer times (like when a 3rd and 2 was converted in AFA territory -- penalty -- third and long and just out of field goal range). AFA's defense completely stuffed Wyo in the second half. Wyoming's performance against airforce, arguably a better running team than Fresno, gives me faith. Texas and TCU ran the ball on use well, but Fresno is not Texas or TCU.

The only bad loss of the season was to Colorado. This was the weekend after Texas and the first road game. The team was still in flux at this point, particularly QB and special teams. The team is different now than when playing CU as we have a new starting QB, many true freshman starting now that hardly played at CU, and special teams are no longer a dissaster (different kicker and field goal kicker and a lot more regulars playing special teams).

I disagree to some extent...First, Wyoming didn't hold a lead the whole first half versus Texas. We blocked the punt right before halftime to give us our first lead, and Texas turned around and took the lead right back for good...but thats kind of irrelevant nitpicking. We competed very well with them for a half.
Second, I don't think Wyo vs. Fresno is very similar to Wyo vs. AFA. They are both running teams, but AFA is a triple-option, Fresno is a pro-style and also has a passing game. AFA has a good defense, Fresno has a terrible defense.

I think this game comes down to us being able to stop Fresno's passing game. As long as we limit their passing game, I don't think they're going to beat us just running the ball. We should be able to score points, they will also score some points. I think its going to be a high-scoring shootout as opposed to a low scoring, defensive battle like against AFA.

 

[Dread_Pirate_Cowboy]

The AFA comparison is relative to strength of the team. I know Fresno is not a triple option team. However, I expect overall their offensive strength to be similar to better than AFA but their defense is not quite as strong. Utah, BYU, and TCU are far stronger teams than Fresno.

Wyoming's defense has usually be pretty stout against teams of similar strength and utterly pathetic against stronger teams (alhtough they did have a nice game against Utah). The offense is also similar.....very anemic against strong teams but really come to life against teams of equal strength. That's why NCAA stats don't mean squat when comparing these teams. Heck, in 2006 and 2007 Wyoming spent most of the season in the top 10 defensively even though we didn't have a winning record either of those years. Based on the stats, Wyoming should have won 1 or 2 games all season and Fresno should be top 20. Neither of these are the case so its irrelevent.

 

[Dread_Pirate_Cowboy]

Texas Scoring Summary
First Second Third Fourth
Texas 3 10 21 7
Wyo 0 10 0 0

You're right, in the first half wyoming was tied or down 3 for 29 minutes, and led for 1 minute. So if Sagarin #91 plays Sagarin #2.....that doesn't happen. Point is, Wyoming can play some pretty danged good football at times and until the last minute first half TD, really had stuffed the Texas offense. So as poorly as our defense is ranked, that should never happen. That's why the NCAA stats don't mean as much as Yoda would like to think.

 

[calpoke25]

The AFA comparison is relative to strength of the team. I know Fresno is not a triple option team. However, I expect overall their offensive strength to be similar to better than AFA but their defense is not quite as strong. Utah, BYU, and TCU are far stronger teams than Fresno.

Wyoming's defense has usually be pretty stout against teams of similar strength and utterly pathetic against stronger teams (alhtough they did have a nice game against Utah). The offense is also similar.....very anemic against strong teams but really come to life against teams of equal strength. That's why NCAA stats don't mean squat when comparing these teams. Heck, in 2006 and 2007 Wyoming spent most of the season in the top 10 defensively even though we didn't have a winning record either of those years. Based on the stats, Wyoming should have won 1 or 2 games all season and Fresno should be top 20. Neither of these are the case so its irrelevent.

You make a very good point on the statistical comparisons, which is something I think Yoda tends to overlook when he gets lost in all of his Sagarin and NCAA overall stats. On paper Wyoming should have won 1-2 games this year. But against similar level competition they are pretty good. The games are decided on the field and not in the stat book or a rating system. There isn't a stat that measures the ability to pull out 4 4th quarter comebacks.
And no Yoda, Fresno St. is not equal to Texas or TCU on offense.

 

[calpoke25]

You say that we are no TCU or Texas but, on offense, we probably are. Or at least we are not as far off as you might think.

Using the NCAA stats you love, Fresno St. faced the median #91 defense in the country. Texas faced median #55 and TCU #71. Your offense has put up some big numbers... but against what quality of defenses? I think its a little brash to be comparing yourself to Texas and TCU on offense. You have some big numbers, but against very bad defenses.

Wyoming faced the median #60 defense in the country... I would like to know what kind of offense they would have put up against median #91.

(I prefer median as opposed to average)

 

[superpoke]

Well I'd say against a median#91 defense the cowboy offensive production would look much like it did in all of our six wins minus the colorado state game. I'd say we would be averaging about 30 pts a game as in weber state, unlv, fau, sdsu, new mexico games, we should of scored more against csu but obviously we didnt take advantage of some good opportunities to score int the first half

 

[Yoda]

Well I'd say against a median#91 defense the cowboy offensive production would look much like it did in all of our six wins minus the colorado state game. I'd say we would be averaging about 30 pts a game as in weber state, unlv, fau, sdsu, new mexico games, we should of scored more against csu but obviously we didnt take advantage of some good opportunities to score int the first half

I am reluctant to argue with you about this because we both have to rely too much on supposition and wishful thinking in order to prove points that can't actually be proven until game time. But I would point out that a lot of factors impact scoring besides the total yards allowed by the defense.

Besides, we're really not that far apart on your scoring. I am thinking that the final score will be 40-something to 20-something and 30 is awfully close to 20-something. Perhaps our real disagreement isn't over how many points you score but how many you allow.

Yoda out...

 

[fromolwyoming]

Finally got a look at this morning's Sports Section in the Boomerang, and it looks like English (D coach for Wyoming) was a coach for FSU's offensive coordinator back at UNC. Not to mention The O-coordinator's father took the Cowboys to the 1966 (I think that was the one) Sun Bowl to beat Florida. And guess who daddy who is rootin' for. :twisted: