Estimated MWC Vs PAC12 $$ Numbers

[CajunPoke]

Had a few moments at work and used GROK and a spreadsheet to estimate what the $$ situation is for each of the Defector 5. Assumed based on the articles that came out yesterday by Chris Murray (Link - Chris Murray Article) that the MWC gets all of the Exit Fees and the PAC-12 Pays the full Poaching fees. Add in the interest the MWC gets due to the By-Laws allowing the MWC to keep go-forward distributions as a payment against the exit fee (total = $37.4 mil + $1.9 mil in interest) - that leaves about $14.9 Mill each of the 5 defectors needs to pay. Grok estimates the PAC12 payout at $4.5 Mil per year more than the MWC.

So.... on a per school basis the move "pays out" in 4-5 years - but on a conference basis when the poaching fees are included the "Pay Out" is 6-7 years.

If the media deal ends with the difference only being $2 Mil per year the "Pay Out" period is 6-7 and on a conference basis is 12-13 years.

You can Divide by 5 to get the per school averages:

Total Exit Fees = $110,000,000
Total Poach Fees = $55,000000
Total Fees Owed = $165,000,000

MWC Withheld FY25 Payout = $31,000,000
CFP Dist Withheld (5 Defectors) = $3,636,364
Other 24-25 Bowl Game Revenue = $2,125,000
NCAA APR Withheld (FSU,CSU) = 600,000
Total MWC Withheld Payouts = 37,361,364

Balance Due = $72,638,636

Increased Media $ for the Defector 5 = $20,000,000/Yr

It gets real interesting when you add in the increased athletic budget the "Defector 5 are expected to "pony up" - which is gotta be more than the added media $$......

Bottom line I see no way this works from a $$$ perspective.

 

[TheRealUW]

People keep comparing the short-term financials between the PAC and the MWC. That part really isn’t important in my opinion.

It all boils down to if the move eventually gets them into a “higher tier” of college football.

If that becomes a reality anywhere in the next 10-15 years, then it was successful regardless of how the finances work out. If not, then it was all for nothing.

 

[307bball]

People keep comparing the short-term financials between the PAC and the MWC. That part really isn’t important in my opinion.

It all boils down to if the move eventually gets them into a “higher tier” of college football.

If that becomes a reality anywhere in the next 10-15 years, then it was successful regardless of how the finances work out. If not, then it was all for nothing.

This is absolutely the bet they are trying to win.

 

[CajunPoke]

I guess the bottom line is do you have the Financial/Fan base to get to that tier? To do that OSU would have to Rival Oregon in their market and WSU would have to rival UW (The other UW) in the Washington market. That is just not going to happen. Is CSU ever going to rival CU for he Denver market? No. SDSU or FSU rival the USC or UCLA market? USU rival BYU or Utah? No.

Thus the $$ they are putting at risk is just good money after bad.

I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

 

[Vapoke]

The "next tier" will probably only include 70 teams so most if not all of those teams are screwed. Oregon State is already trying to buy their way into the Big12 and leave Wazzu behind. I think Wazzu was happy to just merge but let OSU run the ship.

I honestly don't know how Wazzu is going to function being so far in debt and the money media market no even close to what they were receiving when they were left high and dry by the PAC members leaving

 

[Wyokie]

The "next tier" will probably only include 70 teams so most if not all of those teams are screwed. Oregon State is already trying to buy their way into the Big12 and leave Wazzu behind. I think Wazzu was happy to just merge but let OSU run the ship.

I honestly don't know how Wazzu is going to function being so far in debt and the money media market no even close to what they were receiving when they were left high and dry by the PAC members leaving

I had the same thought. OSU is trying too hard to be like their big brother. Wazzu woulda been O.K. with a merger hence why they parked their baseball team in the MW.

 

[Douglaspoke]

If Wyoming had been offered to join--most of us would be on board in a secoond. Now we are left to tell the 5 what a bad deal it is for them!

I personally would have upped my CJC etc and I suspect many many others would have as well. But now we get to watch CSU that wasn't a charter member of the WAC move on past the Pokes --UW must be in the title hunt each year now and win totals need to be in the 8+ each year otherwise in the next realignmnet we move down further.

 

[Itsux2beaewe]

People keep comparing the short-term financials between the PAC and the MWC. That part really isn’t important in my opinion.

It all boils down to if the move eventually gets them into a “higher tier” of college football.

If that becomes a reality anywhere in the next 10-15 years, then it was successful regardless of how the finances work out. If not, then it was all for nothing.

Yeah, none of them will ever end up in the SEC BIG, so it won’t work out for them. Serves em right.

 

[Itsux2beaewe]

If Wyoming had been offered to join--most of us would be on board in a secoond. Now we are left to tell the 5 what a bad deal it is for them!

I personally would have upped my CJC etc and I suspect many many others would have as well. But now we get to watch CSU that wasn't a charter member of the WAC move on past the Pokes --UW must be in the title hunt each year now and win totals need to be in the 8+ each year otherwise in the next realignmnet we move down further.

Yeah, they’ll all luv it when OSU/WSU dictates what the conference does. None of them will be equal.

 

[Itsux2beaewe]

I guess the bottom line is do you have the Financial/Fan base to get to that tier? To do that OSU would have to Rival Oregon in their market and WSU would have to rival UW (The other UW) in the Washington market. That is just not going to happen. Is CSU ever going to rival CU for he Denver market? No. SDSU or FSU rival the USC or UCLA market? USU rival BYU or Utah? No.

Thus the $$ they are putting at risk is just good money after bad.

I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

Yep!

 

[McPeachy]

I guess the bottom line is do you have the Financial/Fan base to get to that tier? To do that OSU would have to Rival Oregon in their market and WSU would have to rival UW (The other UW) in the Washington market. That is just not going to happen. Is CSU ever going to rival CU for he Denver market? No. SDSU or FSU rival the USC or UCLA market? USU rival BYU or Utah? No.

Thus the $$ they are putting at risk is just good money after bad.

I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

Well said. Nobody in the G6 is going to be able to convert their entire conference to P4 status. Maybe one team here or there, but for schools like WOSU, CSewe, Utard State, Fresneck State, it isn't going to happen, no matter the coattails they attach themselves to.

 

[PorkerPoke]

We might see what happens with the first lawsuit designed to buy the pee12’s way into the P4.

A hearing has been set for 9/9/2025 on the motion to dismiss.

 

[McPeachy]

We might see what happens with the first lawsuit designed to buy the pee12’s way into the P4.

A hearing has been set for 9/9/2025 on the motion to dismiss.

I can't even begin to fathom that conference being a P4 conference, no matter what or how much. Same with the rest of the G6 though - that just isn't going to happen.