Entering Game 8: Wyoming has an 93% chance of making it to a bowl game (6+ wins)

[Flexo]

See This Post for methodology and prior week analysis

Hi!

After an awesome win against Nevada Wyoming now is in a much stronger position to go bowling. My model has Wyoming at a 93% and 63% chance of six+ and seven+ wins respectively.


It's been striking how each win helps our probability. This win helps a lot, but it wasn't nearly as dramatic in probability shift as the Air Force upset was. Note how much each win changes the probability distribution. Go Pokes!







As a bonus... here is how CSU is looking to shape up by end of season.

 

[johnywyo]

Great stats. Funny as this is we are only a one in ten probability of beating Boise Truck Driving Institute. Wondering if Vegas will be paying 10X on money line? We get a W next week, which nobody thinks possible, it may birth us into a real desirable Bowl position, and not just a break even proposition in Albuquerque. Bohl needs to find some pressure on Rypien. If we can get that accomplished I like our chances.

 

[Flexo]

Another Bonus Pic:

Look how amazingly far this team has exceeded expectations. Using Archive.org I found elo rankings from week 0. I ran Wyoming's fulls 12 game schedule (using pre season Elo rankings). If you had asked me pre season I would have told you there is a 1.9% chance of six+ wins. AMAZING!

 

[LanderPoke]

Excellent graphs! Thanks

 

[Wyovanian]

Great stats. Funny as this is we are only a one in ten probability of beating Boise Truck Driving Institute. Wondering if Vegas will be paying 10X on money line? We get a W next week, which nobody thinks possible, it may birth us into a real desirable Bowl position, and not just a break even proposition in Albuquerque. Bohl needs to find some pressure on Rypien. If we can get that accomplished I like our chances.

At +14 we'd be about +600 (6-1) money line...

 

[johnywyo]

Holy Moly, nearly zero likelihood of 7 wins, and exactly zero chances of 8. I guess that is exactly why we play games on the field and not in crunching numbers. Computers can't calculate human effort entirely, and it sure makes for fascinating dialogue on how far this program has achieved competitiveness in Bohl's third year. My colleague Gene Taylor former AD at NDSU encouraged me that Bohl would turn the tide in year 3, and at worst year 4. I posted that information last year, and he has proven well informed with that assessment. As we build this team, we do have a shot to become a startling contrast to what some have thought never could be accomplished, a winning team. The trajectory is trending in Cowboys ascension to the top of the Mountain West, reaching new heights in recruiting, development and program development. It feels good this week in particular to be part of a fan base that once again feels positive about Cowboy football. Naturally, consistency is what we seek- yet this is a very good start towards that winning tradition.