Conference musical chairs

[Itsux2beaewe]

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2024/apr/25/pac-12-mailbag-next-steps-for-the-pac-2-schools-an/

This guy thinks cherry picking is more likely than merger.

So their opinion is the PAC? Is more valuable than the MW, but they have no way to quantify that. I would say if the PAC was still in tact likely true, with it only OSU and WSU, I’m not convinced that’s true.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2024/apr/25/pac-12-mailbag-next-steps-for-the-pac-2-schools-an/

This guy thinks cherry picking is more likely than merger.

So their opinion is the PAC? Is more valuable than the MW, but they have no way to quantify that. I would say if the PAC was still in tact likely true, with it only OSU and WSU, I’m not convinced that’s true.

I think it's what has more value:
1) joining mwc (or reverse merger) where all 14 teams are together.
2) 9 or 10 mwc teams + pac 2 in the pac
3) rebuilt pac with some mwc teams and other teams.

Naturally this is impossible to predict until the scope of the landscape clears. Will other power leagues go down leaving other stragglers? Will big and sec split leaving reorganization below (if this happens I think odds are on a cherry picked rebuilt pac)? Will all remaining p4 conferences split?

Way too many variables over the next few years to know what the end result will be.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Interesting reading back through this. Several predictions of what ultimately happened. I wonder why in the hell we went for that scheduling agreement.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

My guess is she's playing hardball with them. Saying something along the lines of "join the conference or don't". They want their cake and to eat it too. Right now the only sure thing is that they'll play football in the MW next season, and be in the WCC for everthing else. I'd guess that Nevarez is working on a deal to make them full members of the conference starting in the fall of 2025.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

I agree. I would be very suspicious of a plan to prop up WSU and OSU so that those schools can realize the benefits of the Pac12 assets, and, then later turn around and create a conference that kicks schools like Wyoming to the curb.

To me - the time to strike while the iron is hot is right now. If the MWC doesn't cave in and provide a scheduling arrangement, WSU and OSU will be forced to join the conference on the same footing as every other member (no way could they lure enough MWC schools to leave give the current exit fees).

If only Burman could have seen this coming…

 

[OrediggerPoke]

The MWC commissioner did a great job in the negotiation. It protects against any MWC schools being left behind for an re-built PAC and against WSU and OSU joining a conference like the AAC and bringing MWC schools along.

Realistically, I see the reverse merger happening and all of us becoming ‘PAC’ members. I don’t see WSU and OSU being invited to a P4.

My February take was awful and so wrong.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

Which is why it’s well drafted. It’s virtually impossible for the PAC2 to raid the MWC of any teams without taking all of the teams during the term of the contract.

But there is a HUGE downside. The fee terminates 2 years from when the contract is up on August 1 2025 (ie August 1, 2027). So come August 2, 2027, those fees go away. By doing a 2 year scheduling agreement we are basically keeping them afloat and then they could raid the conference on August 2, 2027. But that scenario still seems unlikely to me.

I was completely wrong here. I ignored the reality that we provided a due diligence period for OSU and WSU to actually create a plan.

 

[LanderPoke]

Nevarez needs to be beaten for that scheduling agreement. What was she thinking??

I was wrong on CSU leaving.

But my instincts were correct on Nevarez and the scheduling agreement

 

[LanderPoke]

I was completely wrong here. I ignored the reality that we provided a due diligence period for OSU and WSU to actually create a plan.

So tough to predict these things

 

[LanderPoke]

Do we know what kind of TV money this new PAC will garner?

 

[Itsux2beaewe]

Do we know what kind of TV money this new PAC will garner?

How is a media deal more attractive now than when they were trying to negotiate with Oregon, Washington, Utah, Arizona, USC and UCLA and couldn’t get anything? It isn’t.

 

[LanderPoke]

How is a media deal more attractive now than when they were trying to negotiate with Oregon, Washington, Utah, Arizona, USC and UCLA and couldn’t get anything? It isn’t.

I don’t see how it can be much better than whatever the MWC is worth

 

[OrediggerPoke]

I don’t see how it can be much better than whatever the MWC is worth

I bet it’s at least 3X-5X the next MWC media deal. We will be playing our ‘marquee’ games on FS2 and TruTV going forward.

 

[sandiegopoke]

I just listened to the SDSU press conference. They have no idea what a media deal would be worth, but the "are confident" it will be better than staying in the MWC.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

They're going to take the mwc money at minimum and split it among fewer schools.

We may not get a TV contract the next round.

 

[LanderPoke]

I bet it’s at least 3X-5X the next MWC media deal. We will be playing our ‘marquee’ games on FS2 and TruTV going forward.

I meant currently worth