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At large chances.....

Cosmic Cowboy

Cosmic Cowboy

Well-known member
I'm really hoping that the Pokes can somehow manage to rattle off 7 wins in row here and keep our at large chances alive. I like most here had pretty much wrote them off after the AF and SDSU debacle, but upon further review believe that we are still in the hunt. Our schedule is favorable as we are facing mid to lower half of the league opponents including a down UNLV on the road. Can we afford to even drop 1 more in regular season for an at large bid? Seems like we need to go to the MWC tourney championship game as well. Mount SDSU might be too tall for us to climb but we get them on a neutral court maybe just maybe we have our day....but if that's the case we're in the dance no matter what unless that's a 2nd round game.

How many wins do we need to keep our at large chances alive on a slim thread? 26? 27? Or do you think this ship has already sailed?
 
I'm not sure....so I'll stick to history.

No MW team with 25 wins or more has EVER been excluded from the NCAA tournament. None. Zero. That alone is reason for optimism. So if Wyoming won 25 and got left out, the Pokes would make history in a bad way.

One 24-win team has been excluded (New Mexico)...so 25 appears to be the magical number. 26-27? Hard to imagine Wyoming getting left home.

So either win out in the regular season, or win 4/5 and 1 in the MW tourney. Either way, a win in Vegas or Albuquerque is required.
 
I don't believe any team with a 300+ rated out of conference schedule has ever received an at large bid either. So I would say with the losses to Utah St. and Air Force that ship has sailed.


Those teams that made the NCAA tournament with 24 or 25 wins from the MWC never had that bad of out of conference schedule.

Need to win the MWC tournament.
 
J-Rod said:
No MW team with 25 wins or more has EVER been excluded from the NCAA tournament. None. Zero. That alone is reason for optimism. So if Wyoming won 25 and got left out, the Pokes would make history in a bad way.
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And how many college football teams have gone 10-2 and not received a bid to a bowl game?? (Obviously excluding bans or turning down invites)

Wyoming is good at having these crappy historic footnotes unfortunately.
 
Football is a completely different monster all together can't really compare the two sports on wins and losses and even come up with a reasonable answer.
 
Wyo2dal said:
Football is a completely different monster all together can't really compare the two sports on wins and losses and even come up with a reasonable answer.
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Yep, not to mention the football comparison doesn't compare with football now. 1 regular season loss can get a team into an access bowl nowadays.
 
J-Rod said:
Wyo2dal said:
Football is a completely different monster all together can't really compare the two sports on wins and losses and even come up with a reasonable answer.
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Yep, not to mention the football comparison doesn't compare with football now. 1 regular season loss can get a team into an access bowl nowadays.
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Only because ESPN loves Boise. Appease ESPN and the world is your oyster.
 
Geez guys, I wasn't comparing the 2 sports. I was just saying we have a penchant for achieving unfortunate post season snubs.
 
I just don't see our at-large chances as good, and honestly it's driving me a little crazy. ESPN's Bubble Watch added Boise State and still left out Wyoming. I know that they aren't the committee, and that was posted prior to their loss this weekend, but I just don't think we are going to get a fair shake. I know our OOC was awful, but when it comes to the conference schedule, we are playing from the same pool of teams and we are still ahead of both CSU and BSU in the regular season standings, including a combined 3-0 record against those two in head-to-heads. The rest of the nation however doesn't appear to see it that way. I'm convinced that CSU still will get an at-large before we do as unfair as that is. If we don't win the conference tournament, we better hope that SDSU wins it all, and even then I'm still not to hopeful.
 
At-large chances are gone. Honestly, they probably never really existed anyway as seattlecowboy noted (nobody has ever received an at-large with this type of schedule). However, the Cowboys could have made it very interesting for the committee if they had won the MWC regular season.

As is, the Pokes are playing for the following:

1. MWC Tournament- hopefully Nance can come back and get at least a couple of games under his belt before the MWCT.

2. NIT- in the event the Pokes don't win the MWCT (safe bet, it's been over 25 years since we won a conference tourney), the NIT is still an option. Probably need to go 12-6 or so in the MWC and 1-1 in the MWCT. Would be borderline in that scenario (RPI likely in the 80's) and recent Wyoming teams have been left out with similar RPI's (2012-83, 2013-73), but the NIT would likely look at the fact that two of those losses were without Nance.

3. MWC record- Pokes haven't finished above .500 in MWC play since 02-03 and have finished more than 2 games over .500 only twice in the first 15 years of MWC play (the back to back title years in 00-01 and 01-02). This years team could achieve the 3rd best MWC record.

4. Home record- Pokes have a chance to go 18-1 in the remodeled A-A. Say what you want about our SOS (and I have), but that is impressive and a key step in building a fanbase (winning is fun).


Realistically, the NCAA is a long shot in any fashion at this point, but this team can still accomplish a lot. The Nevada game is huge. A win there and the Pokes could probably make the NIT by holding serve at home after that (maybe with Nance in the lineup). A loss at Nevada, and it could be another CBI year (not sure if we would actually participate this year, not much value at this point).
 
wyoav211933 said:
I just don't see our at-large chances as good, and honestly it's driving me a little crazy. ESPN's Bubble Watch added Boise State and still left out Wyoming. I know that they aren't the committee, and that was posted prior to their loss this weekend, but I just don't think we are going to get a fair shake. I know our OOC was awful, but when it comes to the conference schedule, we are playing from the same pool of teams and we are still ahead of both CSU and BSU in the regular season standings, including a combined 3-0 record against those two in head-to-heads. The rest of the nation however doesn't appear to see it that way. I'm convinced that CSU still will get an at-large before we do as unfair as that is. If we don't win the conference tournament, we better hope that SDSU wins it all, and even then I'm still not to hopeful.
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I'm really pissed about this because you'd have a hard time convincing me that we aren't the 2nd best team in the MWC at full strength. We beat CSU easy enough twice and we won over Boise at home fairly easily as well. I think we'd represent the MWC better then both those teams in the NCAA so I'm giving a big old fat BULLSHIT shout out to all of them the haters :bs: :willybs: :willybs:

I'm sorry but all this computer bullshit can't hide the facts. We are better then CSU and Boise St. We're most likely gonna have to prove it again in the MWC tourney.
 
seattlecowboy said:
I don't believe any team with a 300+ rated out of conference schedule has ever received an at large bid either. So I would say with the losses to Utah St. and Air Force that ship has sailed.


Those teams that made the NCAA tournament with 24 or 25 wins from the MWC never had that bad of out of conference schedule.

Need to win the MWC tournament.
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If (and that's a big if) the Pokes win the rest of the games on their schedule, they go into the MWC tourney with a 6 game winning streak, and a 25-6 record. If they win 2 games and lose to SDSU, they would get an at-large bid - and the MWC would get 2 teams in the dance. If they lose to any other team, especially CSU, then they won't get an at-large, and SDSU and the MWC tourney winner get in the dance. :twocents:
 
I'm going to wait and see which games we win or lose before I start crying about our at large chances. This thread would be more appropriate after the regular season has concluded
 
Well I started it early because 1 or 2 more losses before the MWCT and our at large chances go up in smoke as does this thread. I was just wondering what everyones thoughts were on what we needed to achieve this goal. I wanted to bring to attention too that our chances aren't completely gone yet either. I mean I almost wrote them off for dead a week ago, but after seeing the team fight SJSU that way I'm believing we might be able to clip Nevada by 1-4 points if we shoot well.
 
Our at-large chances were somewhat bleak last week. But after the loss at Air Force, they are dead. There is no way, IMO, that this team can get an at-large bid at this time. Our ONLY chance of dancing is winning the MWC tourney.

And the fact of the matter is that I can't necessarily disagree with that. If we got an at-large, it would be one of the last, putting us around a 12 seed. This, in theory, would place us as the 45-48th best team in the country. I don't know if I put us in the top 50 at this point. Top 75, certainly; Top 50, I don't know. So with that in mind, I don't think we deserve to be a bubble team.

Now where I will be upset is if a team like csu gets in and we don't, as I think we are better than them. But depending on how the season shakes out, I would not be totally surprised if the MW ends up being a 1-bid league this year (if SDSU wins the tourney).
 
After the Air Force and SDSU debacles, we have 0% chance of an at large. We will have to win the conference tournament to get an NCAA bid. Our margin for error was razor thin and we faltered when we needed to hold course. Heres to the tournament!
 
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