NowherePoke
Well-known member
Last night's game sucked. Just want to get that out of the way. In an effort to move on from that debacle, I thought I would try to put together a comparison between this year's group and the 13-14 Cowboys. There are some interesting similarities, which I will get to in a minute, regarding the relative ages and experience levels of our rotation, so I thought it would be interesting to compare and try to determine if we are on the same upward trajectory that group was on and if not, what is missing? While there are some similarities, the differences are very enlightening as well (spoiler alert: We aren't winning the MWC next year).
One of the things that got me interested in comparing the two squads was the fact that there are some interesting correlations in terms of age/experience for key rotation players. This year's team goes deeper and obviously we have a limited sample size against mostly weaker competition, but I think it is still a valid comparison. Let's look at the rotations:
13-14:
PG - Grabau (Jr.)
G - Adams (So.)
G - Sobey (Sr.)
F - Nance (Jr.)
F - Cooke (Jr.)
Bench:
G - Hankerson (Jr.)
G - Granberry (Sr.)
G - Washington (Fr.)
Spot Minutes:
Haldorson (So.)/Sellers (Jr.)/Bentz (Jr.)
16-17:
PG - Lieberman (Jr.)
G - James (So.)
G - JMac (Sr.)
F - Herndon (Jr.)
F - Dalton (Jr.)
Bench:
G - Adams (Jr.)
G - Gorski (Jr.)
G - Kelley (RFr.)
Spot Minutes:
Naughton (So.)/Moemeka (RFr.)/Barnes (Jr.)
Obviously I took a little bit of liberty with the starting line-up, but in terms of minutes played those are the leaders at each position (Gorski may technically have more minutes than James, but humor me). So, let's compare (all stats taken from KenPom.com unless otherwise noted and don't include D2 games):
PG: Lieberman vs. Grabau - I kind of wanted to save this one for last since this is one of two key takeaways, but here goes...this is not even a comparison. Both are smallish guards in their junior season that mostly shoot perimeter shots. After that you might as be comparing Larry Nance and Matt Sellers. Grabau had a TS% (which incorporates FT and 3 PT%) of 64.5 which was in the Top 25 nationally. Lieberman has a TS% of 32 which is almost mind-boggingly bad for someone in the rotation. Beyond that, Lieberman has a TO Rate almost double what Grabau's was. Before the season, I thought that Lieberman had a chance to follow Grabau's career arc. His numbers through his first two years were not that different from Grabau other than a much higher TO rate. However, his game has cratered this year. This position is a problem.
G: James vs. Josh Adams - This is a fun one. Two very talented, yet different, sophomore guards. Statistically, James is quite a bit ahead of Adams at this stage in their respective careers. He scores more efficiently, at a higher rate, and in more diverse ways (proficient from the arc, the line, mid-range, and at the rim). The one area where Adams has the advantage IMO is on the defensive end. This is very tough to quantify and I don't have any stats to back it up, but Adams, even as early as his freshman year, was our designated stopper on the perimeter. He usually drew the toughest perimeter defensive assignment in man to man (that was a little bit less the case last year as we relied on him so heavily on offense). Still, James has all the makings of a future all-conference player. Different than Adams, but I would say this position is in equally good hands.
G - JMac vs. Sobey - Two seniors. JMac has struggled from the perimeter this year, but even with that is shooting better than Sobey from beyond the arc. My bet is as the season goes on that gap will be much larger. Sobey was more proficient scoring inside the arc, but JMac has surprisingly gotten to the line more than Sobey did that year even though Sobey was quite adept at getting to the line. I think as the year goes on, JMac's perimeter shooting percentage will increase and his FT rate will decline. Overall, I would give the nod to JMac here, but this isn't really relevant to the future as both were/are seniors in this comparison.
F - Dalton vs. Cooke - Both Juniors that came to UW as JC transfers with three years to play. Both are skinny 6'8"/6'9" types. Obviously the two are very different in other ways. Dalton is athletic, but Cooke was off the charts with his athleticism. Cooke was also stronger. On the flip side, Dalton brings the threat of the perimeter shot (he hasn't yet hit them at a decent clip though at the D-1 level even if the form looks good and he shot 40%+ in JC) and is a good FT shooter. Both rebound at a very nice rate. This is an interesting comparison and both are players that I underestimated during their Soph seasons (not that anybody cares).
F - Herndon vs. Nance - This is the other matchup that really differentiates the 13-14 team from the 16-17 team. Unlike the PG comparison, this is less about any deficiencies from Herndon and more about the fact that Larry Nance was a generational great player. Herndon's offensive game continues to mature and he is now hitting the perimeter shot at the rate his potential suggested (he is our leading perimeter shooter by % this year). Each year his minutes and usage have increased and his rating/efficiency has increased as well. Having said all of those nice things about Herndon, he is no Larry Nance. Nance was an efficient scorer like Herndon, but was also the go-to player so he had a much higher usage rate. He also had a much higher Assist Rate, lower TO rate, and better overall rating. Of course, those numbers ignore the bigger differences which are on the defensive side of the ball. Nance was one of the best rebounders in the country and arguably the best defensive player in the MWC. Herndon is below average on both counts. Long story short, Herndon is a solid role player that can provide a nice boost on offense. Larry Nance was...Larry Nance.
Bench:
G - Louis Adams vs. Hankerson - Both Juniors in their first year playing for UW. Adams playing time has been limited thus far, partially due to the rib injury he sustained at Montana. Interestingly he started last night against CCU. In that limited sample size, Adams has shown himself to be a more dynamic scorer than Hankerson was at UW. Explosive athleticism and the ability to finish in a variety of ways at the rim. Hankerson was a steady role player and very good on both sides of the ball. I think Adams will continue to take some time to figure out his role in the offense and to get more comfortable defensively at the D-1 level. Right now, I think this is fairly equal between the two teams, but I expect Adams as a Senior to have a bigger impact than Hankerson did as a Senior.
G - Aka Gorski vs. Granberry - Gorski is a Junior, Granberry was a senior, but otherwise there are some similarities. They are of similar size and build and both hang their hat on perimeter shooting. Neither could ever be accused of playing above the rim. Granberry got to the line more frequently than Gorski and, at least to this point in the season, shot a higher percentage than Gorski has. Now, I think given a full season we will see Gorski shoot a similar percentage to Granberry (38% from 3), but Jerron was more valuable due to his ability (or at least willingness) to defend opposing 4 men. We have tried a little of that last year and this year with Gorski and it hasn't gone well. It didn't really go well with Jerron either (we were destroyed on the glass during those times), but it was better than Gorski. Having said that, I think as we move into next year, Gorski is an excellent bench shooter as someone that can bring some instant offense off the bench on nights when the starters don't have it going.
G - Kelley vs. Washington - Two, small freshman guards. Washington was more athletic and showed some flashes early that season, but he also seemed to have some trouble buying in from an attitude standpoint. Kelley doesn't seem to have that problem, he just can't make any shots and is too small to impact the game in other ways. Not a fair comparison as Kelley is a walk-on, but still.
Other Players: Naughton/Moemeka/Barnes/Marshall vs. Haldorson/Sellers/Bentz. Big advantage here for the current group as our 9-12 guys are much better than they were a few years ago. I remain excited long term for the potential of Naughton and Moemeka and Marshall will go down as one of the more interesting "what if" careers. Too talented to have basically made no impact.
When you look at the two teams overall statistically, the 13-14 team was better offensively and defensively, but I think the offensive part might come around a little bit on this year's team if they start to make open shots. Defensively is where the gap will remain and I don't think there is anything Coach Edwards can do about that. Nance as an anchor of the defense is just very difficult to duplicate.
Overall, as move into next season, knowing that we aren't going to suddenly have a Larry Nance in the front court, I think the most important item is to develop the PG position. What will that take? I don't really know. Is it Ny Redding, does Lieberman turn the corner, do we sign a JC (if attrition occurs), or a late signee freshman (unlikely to be an impact player)? One way or the other, that position needs to be shored up. Looking at next year we will have a large number of quality players on the wing and in the frontcourt, but we need someone to take the reins, defend opposing ball handlers and keep things moving in the right direction.
One of the things that got me interested in comparing the two squads was the fact that there are some interesting correlations in terms of age/experience for key rotation players. This year's team goes deeper and obviously we have a limited sample size against mostly weaker competition, but I think it is still a valid comparison. Let's look at the rotations:
13-14:
PG - Grabau (Jr.)
G - Adams (So.)
G - Sobey (Sr.)
F - Nance (Jr.)
F - Cooke (Jr.)
Bench:
G - Hankerson (Jr.)
G - Granberry (Sr.)
G - Washington (Fr.)
Spot Minutes:
Haldorson (So.)/Sellers (Jr.)/Bentz (Jr.)
16-17:
PG - Lieberman (Jr.)
G - James (So.)
G - JMac (Sr.)
F - Herndon (Jr.)
F - Dalton (Jr.)
Bench:
G - Adams (Jr.)
G - Gorski (Jr.)
G - Kelley (RFr.)
Spot Minutes:
Naughton (So.)/Moemeka (RFr.)/Barnes (Jr.)
Obviously I took a little bit of liberty with the starting line-up, but in terms of minutes played those are the leaders at each position (Gorski may technically have more minutes than James, but humor me). So, let's compare (all stats taken from KenPom.com unless otherwise noted and don't include D2 games):
PG: Lieberman vs. Grabau - I kind of wanted to save this one for last since this is one of two key takeaways, but here goes...this is not even a comparison. Both are smallish guards in their junior season that mostly shoot perimeter shots. After that you might as be comparing Larry Nance and Matt Sellers. Grabau had a TS% (which incorporates FT and 3 PT%) of 64.5 which was in the Top 25 nationally. Lieberman has a TS% of 32 which is almost mind-boggingly bad for someone in the rotation. Beyond that, Lieberman has a TO Rate almost double what Grabau's was. Before the season, I thought that Lieberman had a chance to follow Grabau's career arc. His numbers through his first two years were not that different from Grabau other than a much higher TO rate. However, his game has cratered this year. This position is a problem.
G: James vs. Josh Adams - This is a fun one. Two very talented, yet different, sophomore guards. Statistically, James is quite a bit ahead of Adams at this stage in their respective careers. He scores more efficiently, at a higher rate, and in more diverse ways (proficient from the arc, the line, mid-range, and at the rim). The one area where Adams has the advantage IMO is on the defensive end. This is very tough to quantify and I don't have any stats to back it up, but Adams, even as early as his freshman year, was our designated stopper on the perimeter. He usually drew the toughest perimeter defensive assignment in man to man (that was a little bit less the case last year as we relied on him so heavily on offense). Still, James has all the makings of a future all-conference player. Different than Adams, but I would say this position is in equally good hands.
G - JMac vs. Sobey - Two seniors. JMac has struggled from the perimeter this year, but even with that is shooting better than Sobey from beyond the arc. My bet is as the season goes on that gap will be much larger. Sobey was more proficient scoring inside the arc, but JMac has surprisingly gotten to the line more than Sobey did that year even though Sobey was quite adept at getting to the line. I think as the year goes on, JMac's perimeter shooting percentage will increase and his FT rate will decline. Overall, I would give the nod to JMac here, but this isn't really relevant to the future as both were/are seniors in this comparison.
F - Dalton vs. Cooke - Both Juniors that came to UW as JC transfers with three years to play. Both are skinny 6'8"/6'9" types. Obviously the two are very different in other ways. Dalton is athletic, but Cooke was off the charts with his athleticism. Cooke was also stronger. On the flip side, Dalton brings the threat of the perimeter shot (he hasn't yet hit them at a decent clip though at the D-1 level even if the form looks good and he shot 40%+ in JC) and is a good FT shooter. Both rebound at a very nice rate. This is an interesting comparison and both are players that I underestimated during their Soph seasons (not that anybody cares).
F - Herndon vs. Nance - This is the other matchup that really differentiates the 13-14 team from the 16-17 team. Unlike the PG comparison, this is less about any deficiencies from Herndon and more about the fact that Larry Nance was a generational great player. Herndon's offensive game continues to mature and he is now hitting the perimeter shot at the rate his potential suggested (he is our leading perimeter shooter by % this year). Each year his minutes and usage have increased and his rating/efficiency has increased as well. Having said all of those nice things about Herndon, he is no Larry Nance. Nance was an efficient scorer like Herndon, but was also the go-to player so he had a much higher usage rate. He also had a much higher Assist Rate, lower TO rate, and better overall rating. Of course, those numbers ignore the bigger differences which are on the defensive side of the ball. Nance was one of the best rebounders in the country and arguably the best defensive player in the MWC. Herndon is below average on both counts. Long story short, Herndon is a solid role player that can provide a nice boost on offense. Larry Nance was...Larry Nance.
Bench:
G - Louis Adams vs. Hankerson - Both Juniors in their first year playing for UW. Adams playing time has been limited thus far, partially due to the rib injury he sustained at Montana. Interestingly he started last night against CCU. In that limited sample size, Adams has shown himself to be a more dynamic scorer than Hankerson was at UW. Explosive athleticism and the ability to finish in a variety of ways at the rim. Hankerson was a steady role player and very good on both sides of the ball. I think Adams will continue to take some time to figure out his role in the offense and to get more comfortable defensively at the D-1 level. Right now, I think this is fairly equal between the two teams, but I expect Adams as a Senior to have a bigger impact than Hankerson did as a Senior.
G - Aka Gorski vs. Granberry - Gorski is a Junior, Granberry was a senior, but otherwise there are some similarities. They are of similar size and build and both hang their hat on perimeter shooting. Neither could ever be accused of playing above the rim. Granberry got to the line more frequently than Gorski and, at least to this point in the season, shot a higher percentage than Gorski has. Now, I think given a full season we will see Gorski shoot a similar percentage to Granberry (38% from 3), but Jerron was more valuable due to his ability (or at least willingness) to defend opposing 4 men. We have tried a little of that last year and this year with Gorski and it hasn't gone well. It didn't really go well with Jerron either (we were destroyed on the glass during those times), but it was better than Gorski. Having said that, I think as we move into next year, Gorski is an excellent bench shooter as someone that can bring some instant offense off the bench on nights when the starters don't have it going.
G - Kelley vs. Washington - Two, small freshman guards. Washington was more athletic and showed some flashes early that season, but he also seemed to have some trouble buying in from an attitude standpoint. Kelley doesn't seem to have that problem, he just can't make any shots and is too small to impact the game in other ways. Not a fair comparison as Kelley is a walk-on, but still.
Other Players: Naughton/Moemeka/Barnes/Marshall vs. Haldorson/Sellers/Bentz. Big advantage here for the current group as our 9-12 guys are much better than they were a few years ago. I remain excited long term for the potential of Naughton and Moemeka and Marshall will go down as one of the more interesting "what if" careers. Too talented to have basically made no impact.
When you look at the two teams overall statistically, the 13-14 team was better offensively and defensively, but I think the offensive part might come around a little bit on this year's team if they start to make open shots. Defensively is where the gap will remain and I don't think there is anything Coach Edwards can do about that. Nance as an anchor of the defense is just very difficult to duplicate.
Overall, as move into next season, knowing that we aren't going to suddenly have a Larry Nance in the front court, I think the most important item is to develop the PG position. What will that take? I don't really know. Is it Ny Redding, does Lieberman turn the corner, do we sign a JC (if attrition occurs), or a late signee freshman (unlikely to be an impact player)? One way or the other, that position needs to be shored up. Looking at next year we will have a large number of quality players on the wing and in the frontcourt, but we need someone to take the reins, defend opposing ball handlers and keep things moving in the right direction.
