Air Force Opens as 10.5 point Favorites

[LanderPoke]

The Sports Books don’t make spreads based on respect or no respect or who has certain feelings about whatever.

They have reasons they make a spread the way they make it.

This board is often more emotion driven than not. It's amazing the amount of pushback I get for laying out actual data and statistics in the face of what folks here "feel".

Lmao wut

[GoPokes86]

This game could end up deciding who plays in a New Year's bowl game, assuming the winner runs the table and/or wins the conference.. If the season ended right now, it'd be the Pokes in a New Years bowl, as they are the highest ranked G5 team, barely ahead of Air Force. No one is sure what Air Force has this year, as their SOS , to date, is horrible. If they beat the Pokes there's a good chance they run the table and end up 12-0 during the regular season. While the AP and the Coaches polls both have the Pokes ahead of AF, Sagirin, is giving no respect to the Pokes, and that's what Vegas must be looking at, as they love stats. Sagirin has the Pokes really low at #71, below 3 of the teams they beat, App State (#63), Fresno (#55) and Texas Tech (#25). They have AF at #36. This game is huge for both teams. The Pokes will have to prove what they have every game for the rest of the year. I don't see where this is a 10.5 spread.

That sagarin ranking is an absolute joke. I know it factors in a preseason bias, but still. What bologna

Absolutely. Too much emphasis on style points etc. Sagarin also has the Pokes SOS as 58th in the nation, ESPN has it at like 29th I think. Bohl's style doesn't lend any favors for looking good "by the numbers"

[cowboyz]

This game could end up deciding who plays in a New Year's bowl game, assuming the winner runs the table and/or wins the conference.. If the season ended right now, it'd be the Pokes in a New Years bowl, as they are the highest ranked G5 team, barely ahead of Air Force. No one is sure what Air Force has this year, as their SOS , to date, is horrible. If they beat the Pokes there's a good chance they run the table and end up 12-0 during the regular season. While the AP and the Coaches polls both have the Pokes ahead of AF, Sagirin, is giving no respect to the Pokes, and that's what Vegas must be looking at, as they love stats. Sagirin has the Pokes really low at #71, below 3 of the teams they beat, App State (#63), Fresno (#55) and Texas Tech (#25). They have AF at #36. This game is huge for both teams. The Pokes will have to prove what they have every game for the rest of the year. I don't see where this is a 10.5 spread.

That sagarin ranking is an absolute joke. I know it factors in a preseason bias, but still. What bologna

But apparently Vegas respects Sagarin's rankings more than the AP or Coaches polls. So, do you go with the team that has faced 3 ranked teams, beat 2 of them and was tied with the 3rd in the 4th quarter, or do you go with the team that has convincing won all of their games against teams with a combined record of 8-21? I say stay away from this game as far as betting. Taking Wyoming with all those points sounds like a no-brainer, and that's what would worry me.

[PokesArePeopleToo]

Air has perfected the ability to run the football over every decade i have seen them play. I would have really liked to see the Pokes do something like af does because with our weather when we get deep into the season it could work very nicely for us.

[ragtimejoe1]

The Sports Books don’t make spreads based on respect or no respect or who has certain feelings about whatever.

They have reasons they make a spread the way they make it. It also doesn’t have anything to do with trying to get half the money on one side and half the money on the other side. That’s the biggest myth in Sports wagering there is.

With that said … based on the fact this line came out this big and so much money already being poured in on Wyoming at a lot of different books I have looked at… tells me the Sportsbooks are siding with AFA in this one and don’t care how much money comes in on Wyoming, they aren’t moving the line.
If you think this looks like an easy point spread cover by Wyoming, you should ask yourself a couple of questions.

How have you done long term wagering on sports? Do you usually beat the sports book and you are up on them? What makes you think the Sports book is going to just give away money for free on this game knowing a lot of people will see that big of a line on this game and want to jump all over Wyoming?

Probably best if you lay off this game wagering wise and hope the pokes can pull it out. Would suck to have a lot of money on Wyoming and they get beat by double digits and you lose as a Wyoming fan and lose your money also.

Just giving you a heads up. Hopefully Wyoming wins but honestly when I see surprising lines like this, they usually end up going the Sports Books way in “most” cases. Very high percentage of them.

1st you're not wrong. The matchup bodes well for AF. The Okie lite vs no name southern team caught me this year. This game has a similar feel.

However, I'm sticking with the POKES to cover because i think the flyboys are practical and the WYO D will be solid enough. If the flyboys win, I think the game will be more clock management rather than big scoring. I've hit a couple mwc games this year to outpace the lines so far.

I might put some on WYO outright. I have a feeling the passing game will raise its head for the first time in a long time.

Sports books take baths sometimes too. Odds are obviously on your side, however.

[ragtimejoe1]

I'll add 1 more thing, AF hasn't been smacked in the mouth yet. The POKES are going to do that. How will AF respond?

[bladerunnr]

This is a perfect spot for Air farce. They come off a bye week. We had a tough game. Our stud rb may not play. Still, I thought the line would be about 7. But we haven't won at AF since pre Josh Allen.

I think the reason we are not getting a ton of respect is we've played 5 out 6 at home. And we probably didn't get any style points for getting shut out in the second half v. Fresno.

Air Force really throttled Utah st. and San Diego st.. Pretty impressive stuff. 4 of our wins weren't decided until the last 2 minutes of the game.

My online sportsbook had the line at 10 and it's already moved to 11. So the contrarian bet says take the points. But, we are +310 on the money line. So that's were I'll play, going for the big payout. Plus, I'm hoping a lot of fans make the trip to the Springs. We've had big crowds there before. I'm going to be there. They have a concession that sells smoked turkey legs. Tells you where my mind is, I guess.

[cowboyz]

This is a perfect spot for Air farce. They come off a bye week. We had a tough game. Our stud rb may not play. Still, I thought the line would be about 7. But we haven't won at AF since pre Josh Allen.

I think the reason we are not getting a ton of respect is we've played 5 out 6 at home. And we probably didn't get any style points for getting shut out in the second half v. Fresno.

Air Force really throttled Utah st. and San Diego st.. Pretty impressive stuff. 4 of our wins weren't decided until the last 2 minutes of the game.

My online sportsbook had the line at 10 and it's already moved to 11. So the contrarian bet says take the points. But, we are +310 on the money line. So that's were I'll play, going for the big payout. Plus, I'm hoping a lot of fans make the trip to the Springs. We've had big crowds there before. I'm going to be there. They have a concession that sells smoked turkey legs. Tells you where my mind is, I guess.

AF has only played one away game as well. But I agree, hitting a wall in the 2nd half vs Fresno hurt our cred, as did Texas losing. If we managed even one score in the 2nd half and Texas beat OK, we'd be ranked. Utah State beat a one-win UConn by a point, they beat a one-win FCS team, and beat CSU. So not a real impressive win for AF against Utah State. SDS is 2-4, so that's not too impressive either. This game will tell a lot about both teams. Is AF for real or just the beneficiary of a lousy schedule, and can Wyoming continue their relatively high level of play vs a traditionally solid MWC opponent? Go Pokes !

[OrediggerPoke]

I’m still not making sense of this. Going back to 2008, Air Force’s largest margin of victory over Wyoming is 14. Other than 2013 when Wyoming strangely blew out Air Force, Wyoming’s largest margin of victory is also 14. We’ve had some bad teams during that time period with some of the worst offenses imaginable . This game is almost always close. This year, we have perhaps one of the best Wyoming teams since 1996 (knock on wood). Bohl is 5-3 against Air Force (4-0 at home, 1-3 in the Springs). Air Force has scored 30 or more points once against a Bohl team (31 in 2015).

And finally - The defensive line for Wyoming is about as talented as it has ever been. We have Gibbs and Suiaunoa at LB (both guys are talented run stoppers with significant Air Force experience).

I’m just not seeing what the odds makers are seeing apparently. Very very strange.

[TheRealUW]

I’m still not making sense of this. Going back to 2008, Air Force’s largest margin of victory over Wyoming is 14. Other than 2013 when Wyoming strangely blew out Air Force, Wyoming’s largest margin of victory is also 14. We’ve had some bad teams during that time period with some of the worst offenses imaginable . This game is almost always close. This year, we have perhaps one of the best Wyoming teams since 1996 (knock on wood). Bohl is 5-3 against Air Force (4-0 at home, 1-3 in the Springs). Air Force has scored 30 or more points once against a Bohl team (31 in 2015).

And finally - The defensive line for Wyoming is about as talented as it has ever been. We have Gibbs and Suiaunoa at LB (both guys are talented run stoppers with significant Air Force experience).

I’m just not seeing what the odds makers are seeing apparently. Very very strange.

That 2013 game was when Dave Christensen was pissed off at Calhoun for having Air Force players fake injuries at the end of the 2012 game - that was the infamous "Howdy Doody" game. If he could have scored 100 on them, he would have.

[DamThatRiver22]

Follow along. My post was about Waylee. Additionally, did you have any clue from anything Bohl said that Harsh wouldn’t be suited up. Get back to me on that. He’s never disclosed much about injuries.

Y'all's inability to have a normal conversation (and then accuse others of not following along) is amusing sometimes.

Yes, your post was about Waylee, and how your perception of Bohl's communication could color our perception of his true status. You then used Peasley as a direct example of Bohl's communication (or lack thereof).

I, in return, explained the nuances of Peasley's situation and how it relates to said communication, and how that relates to the Waylee situation....as well as more directly addressing your point about Bohl in particular (which is absolute poop and I stand by it...that conversation has been had numerous times and Bohl has directly addressed his injury transparency multiple times over the years).

Maybe take your own advice and "follow along". I know nuanced conversation is hard, but damn.

[DamThatRiver22]

This board is often more emotion driven than not. It's amazing the amount of pushback I get for laying out actual data and statistics in the face of what folks here "feel".

Lmao wut

I didn't stutter, lol.

And it's funny you should be the one retorting, considering the two of us have gone rounds over this exact issue more than anyone else here. I'll refer you to our argument about, coincidentally, Air Force at the beginning of the season...which, by the way, I've been validated with each passing week so /shrug.

[ragtimejoe1]

Sportsbooks already whiffed on AF once this year with the -3.5 against sjsu.

[doreno5]

This a game which makes me nervous. AFA plays really well at home. If this was in Laradice the spread would not be as large but I think they would still be a strong favorite with the bookmakers. Wyoming will need a strong 4 quarter game, they cannot afford to fall asleep at the half like last week.

[LanderPoke]

Lmao wut

I didn't stutter, lol.

And it's funny you should be the one retorting, considering the two of us have gone rounds over this exact issue more than anyone else here. I'll refer you to our argument about, coincidentally, Air Force at the beginning of the season...which, by the way, I've been validated with each passing week so /shrug.

Pretty sure you thought we'd suck, so yeah. And pretty sure you thought SDSU would be at the top of the conference too

[laxwyo]

The Sports Books don’t make spreads based on respect or no respect or who has certain feelings about whatever.

They have reasons they make a spread the way they make it. It also doesn’t have anything to do with trying to get half the money on one side and half the money on the other side. That’s the biggest myth in Sports wagering there is.

With that said … based on the fact this line came out this big and so much money already being poured in on Wyoming at a lot of different books I have looked at… tells me the Sportsbooks are siding with AFA in this one and don’t care how much money comes in on Wyoming, they aren’t moving the line.
If you think this looks like an easy point spread cover by Wyoming, you should ask yourself a couple of questions.

How have you done long term wagering on sports? Do you usually beat the sports book and you are up on them? What makes you think the Sports book is going to just give away money for free on this game knowing a lot of people will see that big of a line on this game and want to jump all over Wyoming?

Probably best if you lay off this game wagering wise and hope the pokes can pull it out. Would suck to have a lot of money on Wyoming and they get beat by double digits and you lose as a Wyoming fan and lose your money also.

Just giving you a heads up. Hopefully Wyoming wins but honestly when I see surprising lines like this, they usually end up going the Sports Books way in “most” cases. Very high percentage of them.

I just cashed Buffs at Over 3.5 wins +130 after 6 games into the season. I'd say they're not perfect.

[seattlecowboy]

The Sports Books don’t make spreads based on respect or no respect or who has certain feelings about whatever.

They have reasons they make a spread the way they make it. It also doesn’t have anything to do with trying to get half the money on one side and half the money on the other side. That’s the biggest myth in Sports wagering there is.

With that said … based on the fact this line came out this big and so much money already being poured in on Wyoming at a lot of different books I have looked at… tells me the Sportsbooks are siding with AFA in this one and don’t care how much money comes in on Wyoming, they aren’t moving the line.
If you think this looks like an easy point spread cover by Wyoming, you should ask yourself a couple of questions.

How have you done long term wagering on sports? Do you usually beat the sports book and you are up on them? What makes you think the Sports book is going to just give away money for free on this game knowing a lot of people will see that big of a line on this game and want to jump all over Wyoming?

Probably best if you lay off this game wagering wise and hope the pokes can pull it out. Would suck to have a lot of money on Wyoming and they get beat by double digits and you lose as a Wyoming fan and lose your money also.

Just giving you a heads up. Hopefully Wyoming wins but honestly when I see surprising lines like this, they usually end up going the Sports Books way in “most” cases. Very high percentage of them.

I just cashed Buffs at Over 3.5 wins +130 after 6 games into the season. I'd say they're not perfect.

I never said they were perfect… not sure where anyone is getting that from my post.

I have been doing this for a longtime and I have a LARGE group of people who pay me for picks and info each week/month.

I never once said the sports books are perfect. I was just giving out some knowledge on something I know very very much about and have lots of statistics on, going back many many years.

Wyoming can cover and can win the game. Sports Books don’t take “sides” on every game or spread they put out either. They have specific ones they are more apt to take a “side” on.

This Wyoming/AFA game appears to be one of those based on the size of the line and how much money is coming in on Wyoming so far. That doesn’t mean the Sports Books win all those either. I am just telling you statistically they win a very very high percentage of these types. Over 75% of them. So if you want to take a wager where you have roughly a 25% chance or less of winning go for it.

I would just say maybe go a little bit lighter on it or if you guys like Wyoming so much maybe put them in a teaser and get a few extra points.

Like was stated above … AFA is in a perfect spot this week. They had a bye last week and Wyoming had to play a tough game.

So far this year when Wyoming has had to play a “tougher” opponent, the following week they haven’t looked that great.
They played Texas Tech and won then came back the next week and beat a very horrible Portland St team at home by only 14 points. Oregon beat them by 74 points.

Then Wyoming goes down to Texas and plays a great game overall by Wyomings standards and then comes back home again the following week and has to squeak out a win over a decent App St. team, but an App St. team that isn’t anything special. (Horrible defense app st. Has this year) If Wyoming would have had to play at App St that week, they lose that game by at least a TD or more probably.

Wyoming then plays at home again against UNM who is horrible and Wyoming has some trouble against them but finally pulls it out.

Then WYO comes back to play Fresno St now, another tough game but Wyoming is more rested after playing a weaker opponent the week before and gets them at home.

Now for the first time this year Wyoming is going on the road to play another tough team after a tough game. Had any of those other games that followed up the “tough” games been on the road the following week, Wyoming probably loses them, possibly even to Portland St the way they played that game.

Wyoming hasn’t looked that great yet this year in follow up games after having had to play a tough game the week prior. They have been lucky the games have all been at home and been against lesser opponents in most cases so far.

They don’t get that this week or this time around. They played a tough team in a tough game and now have to play another tough opponent but on the road this time. Back to back tough opponents for the first time this year.

Also we have to remember that when Wyoming played Texas, the longhorns had just beat Alabama in a huge win for them the week before and were probably flat for at least half of the game or more against us. If we have to play them after they beat a more mediocre opponent we probably lose by a lot more than we did that game.

Wyoming +10.5 or +11 isn’t as easy of a wager as most on here think it is. I hope you are all right and they cover easy and win the game but if I take my homer glasses off and look at this like I would other match ups, I wouldn’t ever be telling anyone to play Wyoming this week.

Luckily I don’t give out plays on or against Wyoming in most cases because I don’t want any bias to get in the way. Unless they fit some really really great system, I stay away from Wyoming games.

I’m just going to sit back and hope Wyoming wins but also realize they are in a very tough spot this week. They have some injuries also. So that doesn’t help them. Hopefully Waylee can go but who knows. If he does he probably isn’t 100%.

[laxwyo]

Definitely easy to win by 14 pts. All they need to do is be up by 7 late in the game and then go on one of their long drives to score a late TD. boom 14.

I doubt Waylee his day to day. He's probably closer to week to week. Why hasn't Scott gotten more carries? He popped a few runs against TT

Interesting note, CSU's last win against AF was 2015. and only 1 other win going back to 2009.

[Douglaspoke]

I am thinking not a score of 0-0 as in 1976 at home vs AFA in Bill Lewis' debut as the Pokes coach taking over from Fred Akers.

I do know that Cowboys in Colorado is a co-sponsor at the Academy Tailgate with UW Alumni Assoc and the Cowboy Joe Club starts at 2pm at the far east end of Lot 3 at the Academy parking lot-east of the Falcon stadium and all are welcome.

Poke Fans are in sections L24 and L25 -SE area of Falcon stadium at about the 20 yard line as I recall. Come down and support the Cowboys--weather looks very good as well and should be a big Cowboy fan turnout!

The Pokes win it 27-17...

[DamThatRiver22]

I didn't stutter, lol.

And it's funny you should be the one retorting, considering the two of us have gone rounds over this exact issue more than anyone else here. I'll refer you to our argument about, coincidentally, Air Force at the beginning of the season...which, by the way, I've been validated with each passing week so /shrug.

Pretty sure you thought we'd suck, so yeah. And pretty sure you thought SDSU would be at the top of the conference too

Literally everyone thought we'd suck. I don't recall ANYONE on this board predicting more than 7 wins at best, with most predictions ranging from 3-6. Lmao. Don't make me go pulling receipts.

Also, you're misremembering. I specifically said I didn't think SDSU would be at the top of the conference because Hoke isn't that great of a coach and they had a lot of questions. YOU were the one who was high on SDSU and Fresno State and super low on Air Force (the latter part of which turned into a massive argument, with me pulling out a zillion stats and you just going "nuh uh!").