ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:33 pm
Let's interject a little less emotion and a little more reality. Yes, 4 models for the CDC project that hospitalization rates will increase. 3 models project hospitalizations will remain stable or decline. Hospitalization rates for those 49 and under remain at about 60/100,000 or 0.06%. The worst case group 65+ is about 300/100,000 or about 0.3%. Keep in mind these numbers include those with underlying health conditions which account for roughly 90% + of each of those categories. Percentages of visits for influenza-like or covid-like symptoms to emergency rooms is now less than Dec 2019 levels and about 1% more than fall 2019 levels for covid-like visits. The national percentage of positive cases has increased by a whopping 0.3-0.5%.
How about deaths? Total number of deaths from pneumonia, influenza, OR (big emphasis on OR) COVID-19 deaths for the past 8 weeks are as follows (number designates week in the year):
19--13,817 deaths Covid specifically 10,912
20--11,668 deaths Covid specifically 8,901
21--9,509 deaths Covid specifically 6,885
22--8,207 deaths Covid specifically 5,792
23--6,739 deaths Covid specifically 4,487
24--5,292 deaths Covid specifically 3,480
25--3,390 deaths Covid specifically 2,394
26--1,179 deaths Covid specifically 845
For reference Weeks 40-52 of 2019 had death rates from ballpark of 2,700-3,700. Also remember as stated above, not all CDC projection models predict the same thing. They are just reporting what the majority say. In some cases, like hospitalization rate, the majority is a very thin margin. More people are getting tested leading to more cases, a slightly greater percentage are testing positive, death rates are dropping precipitously, and hospitalization rates are stable with 90%+ coming from those with preexisting medical conditions.
That is reality and readily available from the CDC website. Majority of projections say things are getting worse but a significant number of models (that we don't hear about) predict things improving.