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COVID-19

Asmodeanreborn said:
LanderPoke said:
Not for the entire nation outside of NY
Click to expand...

What makes the rest of us physically different from New Yorkers? The study tried estimating a fatality rate - if we see a higher rate than that for a known population (that's also an order of magnitude larger than their sample size), wouldn't that suggest the study's poorly done?
Click to expand...

As long as this is the one I'm thinking of, the one done by Stanford, right? It wasn't trying to estimate the fatality rate. It was just trying to see how many people have had it. To your point though, this then could be extrapolated by other people to get a better idea of the mortality rate.
The authors of the study did mention a few limitations to their methods -- namely that people were recruited by facebook ads, which resulted in a preponderance of white females between the age of 25-69 who owned cars. They had a lower proportion of asians and hispanics and males of all races who were tested. All these things are relative risk factors for being affected by COVID. And you could assume that white females of that age who have cars are likely the people who are able to stay home more than any other group. I might think that this artificially lowers the number of people who had the disease if anything.
 
Here's some interesting news on anti-body testing. Approximately 1/3 of random people are showing COVID antibodies with no symptoms or mild symptoms. This is in active areas.

This virus is much more prevalent than people think.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/

https://www.dailywire.com/news/homeless-shelter-finds-36-percent-of-visitors-test-positive-nearly-all-asymptomatic
 
.... and then there's this. Please tell me again how the numbers are accurate.

8B6ZMJP.png
 
J-Bone said:
.... and then there's this. Please tell me again how the numbers are accurate.

8B6ZMJP.png
Click to expand...

My brother in law tested negative, but was sicker than a dog for several weeks. All of the symptoms. He's now recovered but obviously will not be counted in the statistics. The tests just aren't all that accurate, so lots of false negatives. Plus, lots of people just aren't getting tested, so we really have no idea how many people are carrying the virus. Lots of people are asymptomatic, too. Loosen restrictions and "open things up" (too soon) at EVERYBODY'S peril! I hate this and want "out" as bad as anyone, but the dangers are all too real. BTW, I live i n Chicago and things are JUST STARTING to get bad here. I would imagine the state of Wyoming is several weeks behind us, so get ready for some real shit.
 
Quarantine and social distancing are not the way out of this. Quarantine and social distancing won't change number of deaths, just date of death. Quarantine and social distancing were/are necessary to allow time to evaluate the enemy and prepare medical industry appropriately. Once that is done, we can't wait on a potential vaccine or treatment. We have to figure out who/why some are so susceptible to severe cases, identify those people, quarantine those people, and let the rest go. Herd immunity is the only way out of this.

Certainly some previously healthy people have either died or had very severe response to the virus, but the vast majority of previously healthy have not. It is getting time to transition to a new strategy. If 80% + of the population have very minor to no symptoms, that is our way out of this mess. It is estimated that a 60%-75% immunity level is enough to eradicate most viruses.

Focus our efforts on preparing to help those get through it that can get through it and identify/quarantine those that can't.
 
ragtimejoe1 said:
Quarantine and social distancing are not the way out of this. Quarantine and social distancing won't change number of deaths, just date of death. Quarantine and social distancing were/are necessary to allow time to evaluate the enemy and prepare medical industry appropriately. Once that is done, we can't wait on a potential vaccine or treatment. We have to figure out who/why some are so susceptible to severe cases, identify those people, quarantine those people, and let the rest go. Herd immunity is the only way out of this.

Certainly some previously healthy people have either died or had very severe response to the virus, but the vast majority of previously healthy have not. It is getting time to transition to a new strategy. If 80% + of the population have very minor to no symptoms, that is our way out of this mess. It is estimated that a 60%-75% immunity level is enough to eradicate most viruses.

Focus our efforts on preparing to help those get through it that can get through it and identify/quarantine those that can't.
Click to expand...

Some truth here as social distancing and quarantine don't necessarily stop sickness/death (barring a vaccine or medical breakthrough), BUT what it does do is buy time while doctors/scientists use scientific methods to find those things. Plus it prevents the hospitals from being overwhelmed by cases of Covid at the same time to where they have to start making life and death decisions on who they can treat. As someone else noted, do you want yourself or a loved one to not get proper/immediate/intensive care for that heart attack/stroke/car accident/etc/etc. when the hospital is absolutely overwhelmed? "Opening up" the economy prematurely will only lead to a big 2nd wave, plus far too many people are too concerned about the virus to take the leap back into "life as it was" unless "answers" to this pandemic are more than wishful thinking.
 
wwplayer said:
ragtimejoe1 said:
Quarantine and social distancing are not the way out of this. Quarantine and social distancing won't change number of deaths, just date of death. Quarantine and social distancing were/are necessary to allow time to evaluate the enemy and prepare medical industry appropriately. Once that is done, we can't wait on a potential vaccine or treatment. We have to figure out who/why some are so susceptible to severe cases, identify those people, quarantine those people, and let the rest go. Herd immunity is the only way out of this.

Certainly some previously healthy people have either died or had very severe response to the virus, but the vast majority of previously healthy have not. It is getting time to transition to a new strategy. If 80% + of the population have very minor to no symptoms, that is our way out of this mess. It is estimated that a 60%-75% immunity level is enough to eradicate most viruses.

Focus our efforts on preparing to help those get through it that can get through it and identify/quarantine those that can't.
Click to expand...

Some truth here as social distancing and quarantine don't necessarily stop sickness/death (barring a vaccine or medical breakthrough), BUT what it does do is buy time while doctors/scientists use scientific methods to find those things. Plus it prevents the hospitals from being overwhelmed by cases of Covid at the same time to where they have to start making life and death decisions on who they can treat. As someone else noted, do you want yourself or a loved one to not get proper/immediate/intensive care for that heart attack/stroke/car accident/etc/etc. when the hospital is absolutely overwhelmed? "Opening up" the economy prematurely will only lead to a big 2nd wave, plus far too many people are too concerned about the virus to take the leap back into "life as it was" unless "answers" to this pandemic are more than wishful thinking.
Click to expand...

Which is why i posted "when ready". Emergency medical facilities are up and sitting empty. Seattle turned a major facility back to the Feds. Opening up those 80% that are resistant will not cause a second wave. They appear to be resistant. Evidence is the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Of 3700 people, only 350 or so even showed symptoms. I think 80% resistant is a low ball estimate.

Some of the 20% that have symptoms or severe cases are certainly head scratchers (i.e. no obvious underlying medical condition), but a big chunk of those are fairly predictable. If those with predictable complications are quarantined, what percentage of otherwise healthy individuals under 55 will die or suffer severe cases of COVID? Why haven't they answered that? It should be easily calculated. That risk is what we are tanking the economy over.

My friend was a low risk person as was his wife. Almost no symptoms for her but he had a scary bout with it. He is doing well now. I think that even if we run into issues with the low risk group, we'll save most if not all of them.
 
ragtimejoe1 said:
wwplayer said:
ragtimejoe1 said:
Quarantine and social distancing are not the way out of this. Quarantine and social distancing won't change number of deaths, just date of death. Quarantine and social distancing were/are necessary to allow time to evaluate the enemy and prepare medical industry appropriately. Once that is done, we can't wait on a potential vaccine or treatment. We have to figure out who/why some are so susceptible to severe cases, identify those people, quarantine those people, and let the rest go. Herd immunity is the only way out of this.

Certainly some previously healthy people have either died or had very severe response to the virus, but the vast majority of previously healthy have not. It is getting time to transition to a new strategy. If 80% + of the population have very minor to no symptoms, that is our way out of this mess. It is estimated that a 60%-75% immunity level is enough to eradicate most viruses.

Focus our efforts on preparing to help those get through it that can get through it and identify/quarantine those that can't.
Click to expand...

Some truth here as social distancing and quarantine don't necessarily stop sickness/death (barring a vaccine or medical breakthrough), BUT what it does do is buy time while doctors/scientists use scientific methods to find those things. Plus it prevents the hospitals from being overwhelmed by cases of Covid at the same time to where they have to start making life and death decisions on who they can treat. As someone else noted, do you want yourself or a loved one to not get proper/immediate/intensive care for that heart attack/stroke/car accident/etc/etc. when the hospital is absolutely overwhelmed? "Opening up" the economy prematurely will only lead to a big 2nd wave, plus far too many people are too concerned about the virus to take the leap back into "life as it was" unless "answers" to this pandemic are more than wishful thinking.
Click to expand...

Which is why i posted "when ready". Emergency medical facilities are up and sitting empty. Seattle turned a major facility back to the Feds. Opening up those 80% that are resistant will not cause a second wave. They appear to be resistant. Evidence is the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Of 3700 people, only 350 or so even showed symptoms. I think 80% resistant is a low ball estimate.

Some of the 20% that have symptoms or severe cases are certainly head scratchers (i.e. no obvious underlying medical condition), but a big chunk of those are fairly predictable. If those with predictable complications are quarantined, what percentage of otherwise healthy individuals under 55 will die or suffer severe cases of COVID? Why haven't they answered that? It should be easily calculated. That risk is what we are tanking the economy over.

My friend was a low risk person as was his wife. Almost no symptoms for her but he had a scary bout with it. He is doing well now. I think that even if we run into issues with the low risk group, we'll save most if not all of them.
Click to expand...

"When ready" is the key. We're not anywhere near that. In Chicago we haven't reached any sort of peak yet. The state of Wyoming is undoubtedly at least a couple of weeks behind us. So anytime soon is probably not "when ready. We've got to remember that those "80+%", while they may not be sick or even have symptoms may still be carriers. Does anyone have any family/friends/grandparents/etc. that they are willing to let be exposed to this virus to see if they are in the 80%? It seems a little like playing Russian Roulette. Put one bullet in the revolver and you take your chances. I definitely get it that the economy is taking a big hit, but just how many people should be sacrificed (death/permanent lung/heart/etc. damage) just to open things up too quickly? Also, people tend to do some pretty dumb things. A few weeks ago, we had our first really nice day, so lots of people naturally went to Chicago's lakefront where they were congregating way too much. Our mayor had to shut down the whole lakefront which really sucks. Then there's that woman in Casper that I read about who got a test when her roommate tested positive, and then immediately went to two parties that weekend (before she got the test results back). Doesn't show much thought. Of course, there's the lockdown protesters in Michigan, Minnesota, etc. who are showing up, congregating without even face masks. How amny of them are going to become, at best, just carriers. 'When ready" is definitely the key. But a long way off.
 
We should have plenty of epidemiological data to characterize the most at risk people. Tell people with xyz to stay quarantined and everyone else back to it with precautions. Of the 80% you tell back to it, there will be a very very minor few that have severe cases.

Who cares about carriers in that group? Once they have sufficient immunity, the virus fades and the other 20% can carefully return to normal.

You are talking over 300 million people. Another month, 2 months, 3, or 6 of quarantine still leaves millions naive and the risk of spiking. We need a different approach.
 
'PokeForLife said:
As long as this is the one I'm thinking of, the one done by Stanford, right? It wasn't trying to estimate the fatality rate. It was just trying to see how many people have had it. To your point though, this then could be extrapolated by other people to get a better idea of the mortality rate.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was just pointing out that the extrapolated rate Lander brought up is already being overrun by NYC's actual numbers.
 
I've mentioned my colleague who still has lung problems, and then my friend (the immunization expert who has the awful job of fighting hippie anti-vaxx moms in Boulder) shared this little tidbit:

sF3Hdg8.png



Just some observations from somebody working with it - obviously they don't know the full effects yet, just the damage they observed in patients.
 
Asmodeanreborn said:
I've mentioned my colleague who still has lung problems, and then my friend (the immunization expert who has the awful job of fighting hippie anti-vaxx moms in Boulder) shared this little tidbit:

sF3Hdg8.png



Just some observations from somebody working with it - obviously they don't know the full effects yet, just the damage they observed in patients.
Click to expand...

I'd be very curious how many of the more severe cases are in people that have some sort of other medical situation and how many were seemingly healthy people?

The hospitalization rate in many states is relatively low especially if you consider total exposed. The Cruise ship had 3700 people, 700 with virus, 350 that showed symptoms, and 12 died.

We need a way to identify the 350 people before exposure and let the other 3300 people get back to their lives.

80 to 90 % of the people are fine with very minor symptoms at most. Identifying them and letting them resume their lives is critical.

If all the doomsday stuff is accurate Sweden and Mexico should be facing catastrophic situations very soon. Mexico is not on lockdown despite govt orders (I know this first hand). Sweden might have a bit higher death rate than a few neighbors, but so far are tracking pretty consistent with countries that used severe measures. Mexico City has a few full hospitals but so far the death rate per capita is in line with others. If the lockup is necessary, there should be mountains of bodies in Mexico in the coming months.
 
ragtimejoe1 said:
If all the doomsday stuff is accurate Sweden and Mexico should be facing catastrophic situations very soon. Mexico is not on lockdown despite govt orders (I know this first hand). Sweden might have a bit higher death rate than a few neighbors, but so far are tracking pretty consistent with countries that used severe measures. Mexico City has a few full hospitals but so far the death rate per capita is in line with others. If the lockup is necessary, there should be mountains of bodies in Mexico in the coming months.
Click to expand...

Sweden's doing great outside of Stockholm, which is not a great place to be at the moment (though shelter in place has slowed things down significantly there). My sister's kids still have sports practices as normal, but they're in a smaller place too. I think there's been like 2 confirmed cases in that whole area, which only has maybe 20,000 people within 10 miles.

I do think slowly opening things up but being careful will make sense in a couple of weeks or so. As much as I miss hanging out with my colleagues in person, I don't mind working from home for the next couple of months as I _can_ do that. Many people don't have that luxury, but if those of us who can stay at home do so, it'll still help the rates of transmission to a point where maybe we won't see a huge second spike.
 
Asmodeanreborn said:
I do think slowly opening things up but being careful will make sense in a couple of weeks or so. As much as I miss hanging out with my colleagues in person, I don't mind working from home for the next couple of months as I _can_ do that. Many people don't have that luxury, but if those of us who can stay at home do so, it'll still help the rates of transmission to a point where maybe we won't see a huge second spike.
Click to expand...

I definitely agree. Keep some things under wraps as needed, but time to start getting things rolling again. Another depression would be far more devastating and longer-lasting than COVID. I don't have faith that a vaccine or other magic bullet is going to solve this. Unfortunately, I think we'll discover that it might mutate slower than flu but sufficiently enough to circumvent immunity through vaccination. In other words, I think this damn thing is going to kill a lot of people and very little we can do until natural immunity pushes it out.

On a side note, don't look to China as an example of what the other side can look like. I have a very good connection and he said if China is the example of getting out of this, we should all despair. They are still a mess but better at keeping it under wraps.
 
ragtimejoe1 said:
Asmodeanreborn said:
I do think slowly opening things up but being careful will make sense in a couple of weeks or so. As much as I miss hanging out with my colleagues in person, I don't mind working from home for the next couple of months as I _can_ do that. Many people don't have that luxury, but if those of us who can stay at home do so, it'll still help the rates of transmission to a point where maybe we won't see a huge second spike.
Click to expand...

I definitely agree. Keep some things under wraps as needed, but time to start getting things rolling again. Another depression would be far more devastating and longer-lasting than COVID. I don't have faith that a vaccine or other magic bullet is going to solve this. Unfortunately, I think we'll discover that it might mutate slower than flu but sufficiently enough to circumvent immunity through vaccination. In other words, I think this damn thing is going to kill a lot of people and very little we can do until natural immunity pushes it out.

On a side note, don't look to China as an example of what the other side can look like. I have a very good connection and he said if China is the example of getting out of this, we should all despair. They are still a mess but better at keeping it under wraps.
Click to expand...

We are having a depression. It's going to last for several years. In Colorado, a poll of small businesses showed that 30 percent will never reopen if the shutdown lasts another month. If the shutdown lasts beyond June, roughly 60 percent will close for good. The oil industry is headed for mass bankruptcies. My next door neighbor owns 2 health clubs. Health clubs will probably have new guidelines that will basically bankrupt most of them.

There may never be a workable vaccine. If this virus mutates like the flu, then there will be new strains that make any vaccine useless. Another poster said this is like "Russian Roulette". Absolute nonsense. If you are healthy and under 50, the odds of you dying from this are less than from dying in a car accident.

I talked to a Cowboy Joe executive and he told me donations are way down. Well, people have lost their jobs, gotten killed by the stock market, and there probably won't be a football season anyway. At some point, you shut down advocates will realize (too late) that there won't be anything to open up if this shutdown just goes on and on.
 
bladerunnr said:
ragtimejoe1 said:
Asmodeanreborn said:
I do think slowly opening things up but being careful will make sense in a couple of weeks or so. As much as I miss hanging out with my colleagues in person, I don't mind working from home for the next couple of months as I _can_ do that. Many people don't have that luxury, but if those of us who can stay at home do so, it'll still help the rates of transmission to a point where maybe we won't see a huge second spike.
Click to expand...

I definitely agree. Keep some things under wraps as needed, but time to start getting things rolling again. Another depression would be far more devastating and longer-lasting than COVID. I don't have faith that a vaccine or other magic bullet is going to solve this. Unfortunately, I think we'll discover that it might mutate slower than flu but sufficiently enough to circumvent immunity through vaccination. In other words, I think this damn thing is going to kill a lot of people and very little we can do until natural immunity pushes it out.

On a side note, don't look to China as an example of what the other side can look like. I have a very good connection and he said if China is the example of getting out of this, we should all despair. They are still a mess but better at keeping it under wraps.
Click to expand...

We are having a depression. It's going to last for several years. In Colorado, a poll of small businesses showed that 30 percent will never reopen if the shutdown lasts another month. If the shutdown lasts beyond June, roughly 60 percent will close for good. The oil industry is headed for mass bankruptcies. My next door neighbor owns 2 health clubs. Health clubs will probably have new guidelines that will basically bankrupt most of them.

There may never be a workable vaccine. If this virus mutates like the flu, then there will be new strains that make any vaccine useless. Another poster said this is like "Russian Roulette". Absolute nonsense. If you are healthy and under 50, the odds of you dying from this are less than from dying in a car accident.

I talked to a Cowboy Joe executive and he told me donations are way down. Well, people have lost their jobs, gotten killed by the stock market, and there probably won't be a football season anyway. At some point, you shut down advocates will realize (too late) that there won't be anything to open up if this shutdown just goes on and on.
Click to expand...

I read a proposal to freeze pay and assets of all legislators for as long as they mandate business closures. They would be eligible for unemployment and the other programs out there.

That'd make it more interesting for sure.
 
bladerunnr said:
ragtimejoe1 said:
Asmodeanreborn said:
I do think slowly opening things up but being careful will make sense in a couple of weeks or so. As much as I miss hanging out with my colleagues in person, I don't mind working from home for the next couple of months as I _can_ do that. Many people don't have that luxury, but if those of us who can stay at home do so, it'll still help the rates of transmission to a point where maybe we won't see a huge second spike.
Click to expand...

I definitely agree. Keep some things under wraps as needed, but time to start getting things rolling again. Another depression would be far more devastating and longer-lasting than COVID. I don't have faith that a vaccine or other magic bullet is going to solve this. Unfortunately, I think we'll discover that it might mutate slower than flu but sufficiently enough to circumvent immunity through vaccination. In other words, I think this damn thing is going to kill a lot of people and very little we can do until natural immunity pushes it out.

On a side note, don't look to China as an example of what the other side can look like. I have a very good connection and he said if China is the example of getting out of this, we should all despair. They are still a mess but better at keeping it under wraps.
Click to expand...

We are having a depression. It's going to last for several years. In Colorado, a poll of small businesses showed that 30 percent will never reopen if the shutdown lasts another month. If the shutdown lasts beyond June, roughly 60 percent will close for good. The oil industry is headed for mass bankruptcies. My next door neighbor owns 2 health clubs. Health clubs will probably have new guidelines that will basically bankrupt most of them.

There may never be a workable vaccine. If this virus mutates like the flu, then there will be new strains that make any vaccine useless. Another poster said this is like "Russian Roulette". Absolute nonsense. If you are healthy and under 50, the odds of you dying from this are less than from dying in a car accident.

I talked to a Cowboy Joe executive and he told me donations are way down. Well, people have lost their jobs, gotten killed by the stock market, and there probably won't be a football season anyway. At some point, you shut down advocates will realize (too late) that there won't be anything to open up if this shutdown just goes on and on.
Click to expand...
I definitely agree that keeping things shut down will become untenable before too long. Another month or so may be the limit before something will need to change. Probably a phased opening rather than a big rush to open immediately is a much better idea. It is going to be way too soon for any sort of herd immunity to have developed. The only people who have immunity (but for how long - they still don't know) are those who have had the virus in them - asymptomatic, mild case, worse case, dead. In order to keep the health care system from being totally overwhelmed, decisions were made (rightly so, in my opinion) to separate people. That means there is a HUGE part of the population who have NOT YET BEEN EXPOSED. When they (myself included, as I don't think I was ever exposed) are let out, lots of people are going to be exposed. Some will be asymptomatic, some will have mild cases, some will get it bad and maybe die. But all of these newly exposed will be carriers, at least for a while. It will be messy. But we certainly can't remain in quarantine indefinitely, either. Tough situation. Big business (and their enablers on both sides of the aisle) will come out ok, but it will be the small business people and all of us "regular folks" who will be f@$*ed.
 
Here's some math:

Ballpark of 70% of the population is 54 and under = roughly 230 million people.
According to the CDC, age 49 and under have a .01% hospitalization rate 10/100,000.
Also according to the CDC, 10% of adults who are hospitalized have no known prior health conditions.

230 million people x .01% hospitalization rate = 23,000 hospitalizations
Of the 23,000 hospitalizations, we should be able to categorize at least 80% of those to keep in quarantine.

That means, letting everyone under 50-54 out of quarantine runs the risk of having 4,600 unknown hospitalizations.

Going further, total of 1,453 deaths from COVID19 in the crowd under 54 (again most of those with underlying health conditions) and 3,274 pneumonia deaths where influenza or COVID aren't listed as disease.

Something doesn't add up to me??

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
 
ragtimejoe1 said:
bladerunnr said:
ragtimejoe1 said:
Asmodeanreborn said:
I do think slowly opening things up but being careful will make sense in a couple of weeks or so. As much as I miss hanging out with my colleagues in person, I don't mind working from home for the next couple of months as I _can_ do that. Many people don't have that luxury, but if those of us who can stay at home do so, it'll still help the rates of transmission to a point where maybe we won't see a huge second spike.
Click to expand...

I definitely agree. Keep some things under wraps as needed, but time to start getting things rolling again. Another depression would be far more devastating and longer-lasting than COVID. I don't have faith that a vaccine or other magic bullet is going to solve this. Unfortunately, I think we'll discover that it might mutate slower than flu but sufficiently enough to circumvent immunity through vaccination. In other words, I think this damn thing is going to kill a lot of people and very little we can do until natural immunity pushes it out.

On a side note, don't look to China as an example of what the other side can look like. I have a very good connection and he said if China is the example of getting out of this, we should all despair. They are still a mess but better at keeping it under wraps.
Click to expand...

We are having a depression. It's going to last for several years. In Colorado, a poll of small businesses showed that 30 percent will never reopen if the shutdown lasts another month. If the shutdown lasts beyond June, roughly 60 percent will close for good. The oil industry is headed for mass bankruptcies. My next door neighbor owns 2 health clubs. Health clubs will probably have new guidelines that will basically bankrupt most of them.

There may never be a workable vaccine. If this virus mutates like the flu, then there will be new strains that make any vaccine useless. Another poster said this is like "Russian Roulette". Absolute nonsense. If you are healthy and under 50, the odds of you dying from this are less than from dying in a car accident.

I talked to a Cowboy Joe executive and he told me donations are way down. Well, people have lost their jobs, gotten killed by the stock market, and there probably won't be a football season anyway. At some point, you shut down advocates will realize (too late) that there won't be anything to open up if this shutdown just goes on and on.
Click to expand...

I read a proposal to freeze pay and assets of all legislators for as long as they mandate business closures. They would be eligible for unemployment and the other programs out there.

That'd make it more interesting for sure.
Click to expand...

Funny you should mention this. See below. Hopefully, it opens. Boise State requiring furloughs ( 10 days) of all personnel earning 150k or more, which includes football and bb coachs

https://www.coloradoan.com/story/sports/college/2020/04/21/boise-state-athletics-implements-staff-furloughs-including-football-coaches-bryan-harsin/3000176001/
 
ragtimejoe1 said:
Here's some math:

Ballpark of 70% of the population is 54 and under = roughly 230 million people.
According to the CDC, age 49 and under have a .01% hospitalization rate 10/100,000.
Also according to the CDC, 10% of adults who are hospitalized have no known prior health conditions.

230 million people x .01% hospitalization rate = 23,000 hospitalizations
Of the 23,000 hospitalizations, we should be able to categorize at least 80% of those to keep in quarantine.

That means, letting everyone under 50-54 out of quarantine runs the risk of having 4,600 unknown hospitalizations.

Going further, total of 1,453 deaths from COVID19 in the crowd under 54 (again most of those with underlying health conditions) and 3,274 pneumonia deaths where influenza or COVID aren't listed as disease.

Something doesn't add up to me??

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
Click to expand...
Interesting, maybe even convincing, math, but it only takes into consideration those who are hospitalized. What about all of the people with the virus who are asymptomatic, those with mild cases, those who have the virus for number of days before they start to get (a little/a lot/dead) sick. They are all carriers. That's where the problem really lies. Not with the ones in the hospital.
 
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