Way-Too-Early Look at 2023...

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DamThatRiver22
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How we feeling?

Yes, Bohl has a solid defense and special teams that will now have had measurable experience (I don't think the portal will wreck this team nearly as much as it did last winter.) But there's zero indication our offenses will be any different. So with that in mind:

OOC is pretty brutal...TTU, UT, App State.

Conference includes AFA, BSU, Fresno.

Six very difficult games even if you make the dangerous assumption that the others (PSU, CSU, UNM, UNR, UNLV, UH) are all automatic Ws. Maybe we take AFA and App State, but true to form, dropping at least one game we shouldn't (UNLV, UNM maybe?) is equally likely.

Unless Bohl somehow magically finds and agrees to a different offensive philosophy...it looks like 6-6, 7-5 is on the table again, boys and girls.
Itsux2beaewe
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The Pokes were bitten early with injuries, and continued through the season. I really wonder how our season would have went if we wouldn’t have had so many injuries? If we find a competent QB they could be really good. The “D” was solid, get back to full strength they will be dam good.

I do worry about transfers. I was at the Boise St game and on the final int Swen sprinted to the sideline, pissed. I can only imagine he wondered why they didn’t run it - he had 200 yards. I fear the transfer portal.
DamThatRiver22
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Itsux2beaewe wrote: Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:16 am If we find a competent QB they could be really good.
Eight different quarterbacks have taken snaps since 2016; six have seen significant playing time. All of them fit the JA17 mold. All of them, including JA17, have struggled.

"Finding a competent QB" isn't the issue. Finding competent QB coaching and development, as well as an offense that sets them up for success, is the issue.

If we're waiting for another pure freak like JA17...who occasionally transcends the terrible system he's in...we're gonna be waiting for a while.

As for the injuries, they happen. Every year. Some are worse than others, but yea. It's a combination of S&C, schedule, and luck. Depth is a good cure and I do think we've built some of that, but next year's early slate is much more brutal than this year's was. TTU, UT, and App State being 3 out of the first 4 is a pretty daunting schedule from a physical standpoint.

As for transfers...offensive transfers are always a concern, especially QBs and WRs. But I think the transfer portal for mid-tier G5 programs may tone down a bit from here on out. I think a lot of kids, parents, and coaches saw what happened this year...we had a record number of transfers in FBS, but the majority of those kids either made purely lateral moves situationally, or never played again. I think it's setting in that at least "down here", the grass isn't always greener. That, and a few more situationally-specific reasons...I think we keep most of this team intact.

I think we'll be in a better position purely from a roster and experience standpoint, but with this offense I just don't see starting out better than 1-3 with plenty of injuries early, and that has a possibility of snowballing into conference play.

I'm pretty confident in the floor being 5-7, ceiling being 7-5.
Itsux2beaewe
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DamThatRiver22 wrote: Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:59 am
Itsux2beaewe wrote: Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:16 am If we find a competent QB they could be really good.
Eight different quarterbacks have taken snaps since 2016; six have seen significant playing time. All of them fit the JA17 mold. All of them, including JA17, have struggled.

"Finding a competent QB" isn't the issue. Finding competent QB coaching and development, as well as an offense that sets them up for success, is the issue.

If we're waiting for another pure freak like JA17...who occasionally transcends the terrible system he's in...we're gonna be waiting for a while.

As for the injuries, they happen. Every year. Some are worse than others, but yea. It's a combination of S&C, schedule, and luck. Depth is a good cure and I do think we've built some of that, but next year's early slate is much more brutal than this year's was. TTU, UT, and App State being 3 out of the first 4 is a pretty daunting schedule from a physical standpoint.

As for transfers...offensive transfers are always a concern, especially QBs and WRs. But I think the transfer portal for mid-tier G5 programs may tone down a bit from here on out. I think a lot of kids, parents, and coaches saw what happened this year...we had a record number of transfers in FBS, but the majority of those kids either made purely lateral moves situationally, or never played again. I think it's setting in that at least "down here", the grass isn't always greener. That, and a few more situationally-specific reasons...I think we keep most of this team intact.

I think we'll be in a better position purely from a roster and experience standpoint, but with this offense I just don't see starting out better than 1-3 with plenty of injuries early, and that has a possibility of snowballing into conference play.

I'm pretty confident in the floor being 5-7, ceiling being 7-5.
I see us being better than this year, with a young team that did much better than most expected. Key players back from injuries.

My point about a competent QB doesn’t need any further clarification. We have the offense we have, and will have, as long as Bohl is here. Vigen at Mont St has proven that.

I would also say injuries just the last two games was more than average. McNeely, Stone, Bertagnoli, Peasley, DQ………. Key players.

Transfer portal………. Neither you or I know, remains to be seen…….
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