MAJOR SHOCKER: USC & UCLA to the Big Ten by 2024!!!

[LanderPoke]

We’ll be with CSU, USU, Nevada, and NM. Somewhere

[Itsux2beaewe]

We’ll be with CSU, USU, Nevada, and NM. Somewhere

Fair enough, where is that? Where does SDSU, Boise St, AFA, UNLV, Fresno St, and SJSU end up?

[Wyokie]

Should the rumors end up being true...

Big 12 will get the Arizona schools, Colorado, & Utah.

MW will end up with Oregon State and Washington State.

No idea what happens to Cal and Stanford. From I've read online, neither school wants to have ANYTHING to do with BYU should both get Big 12 invites.

[Wyokie]

We’ll be with CSU, USU, Nevada, and NM. Somewhere

Fair enough, where is that? Where does SDSU, Boise St, AFA, UNLV, Fresno St, and SJSU end up?

If I had to guess...PAC-12 backfills with those schools you mention after Big 12 gets 4 from PAC-12 that I mentioned.

[Itsux2beaewe]

We’ll be with CSU, USU, Nevada, and NM. Somewhere

Fair enough, where is that? Where does SDSU, Boise St, AFA, UNLV, Fresno St, and SJSU end up?

If I had to guess...PAC-12 backfills with those schools you mention after Big 12 gets 4 from PAC-12 that I mentioned.

Can the MW survive with 6 teams? Wyo, CSU, USU, NM, Ore St and Wash St?

[Itsux2beaewe]

We’ll be with CSU, USU, Nevada, and NM. Somewhere

Fair enough, where is that? Where does SDSU, Boise St, AFA, UNLV, Fresno St, and SJSU end up?

If I had to guess...PAC-12 backfills with those schools you mention after Big 12 gets 4 from PAC-12 that I mentioned.

Can the MW survive with 6 teams? Wyo, CSU, USU, NM, Ore St and Wash St?

7 Nevada?

[OrediggerPoke]

MWC 2027:

Wyo
USU
New Mexico
SJSU
Fresno
Nevada
New Mexico State
Utah Tech
North Dakota State
South Dakota State

[Wyokie]

My guess for the MW by 2023...

AFA
Boise State
Colorado State aka Fort Fart
Hawaii (although there are fans there who wants the football team to go Indy - don't ask)
Fresno State
UNLV
Nevada
New Mexico
WYOMING
San Diego State
Utah State
San Jose State
Oregon State
Washington State

The PAC-12 dies a horrible death within a few weeks from now.

[Itsux2beaewe]

My guess for the MW by 2023...

AFA
Boise State
Colorado State aka Fort Fart
Hawaii (although there are fans there who wants the football team to go Indy - don't ask)
Fresno State
UNLV
Nevada
New Mexico
WYOMING
San Diego State
Utah State
San Jose State
Oregon State
Washington State

The PAC-12 dies a horrible death within a few weeks from now.

This wouldn’t be horrible.

[ragtimejoe1]

I still think it makes the most sense for some sort of big12/pac12 merger. The leftovers then raid the g5.

However, if the PAC holds temporarily, they probably just pluck suds + 1 of fresno, bsu, or unlv. We either hold or do some boring additions.

If WA and Oregon go, then who knows? Same for ACC. If Clemson, Miami, and FSU jump, then who knows what the fallout will be. MWC will not add pac teams. Not happening.

I think the MWC is at an elevated risk to lose 2 and a minor risk to lose 4 or more. Wouldn't surprise me to see nmsu/utep in MWC at some point.

[PokeTransplant]

My guess for the MW by 2023...

AFA
Boise State
Colorado State aka Fort Fart
Hawaii (although there are fans there who wants the football team to go Indy - don't ask)
Fresno State
UNLV
Nevada
New Mexico
WYOMING
San Diego State
Utah State
San Jose State
Oregon State
Washington State

The PAC-12 dies a horrible death within a few weeks from now.

Might as well bring in the Montanas. Back to 16 with 8 team divisions. Not going to get to FBS Playoff, but would make a hell of a league.

[ragtimejoe1]

Ultimately I think it goes something like this (unless Pac just adds a couple of MWC teams to buy time).

CAL, Stanford, WA, and Oregon go Big10

Utah, CO, AZ Schools, WA State, OR State, Tech, K State, Okie Light, KS, Iowa State, Baylor, and TCU make a conference. Possibly WV and Cinci in here as well (would they keep byu and Houston for 16?). suds and/or fresno might be in play here for a Cali presence...maybe even more likely than WV/Cinci.

If merger stays at 12 or 14, byu and Houston attempt to form best of the rest (Cinci and WV here if merger stays at 12). If successful, the MWC is decimated. If not, outside chance Houston + 1 or 2 more join MWC. byu back to Indy.

Directional Florida back to American (maybe Cinci and/or WV here?)

Under no scenario will the MWC add a P5 team.

[laxwyo]

Ultimately I think it goes something like this (unless Pac just adds a couple of MWC teams to buy time).

CAL, Stanford, WA, and Oregon go Big10

Utah, CO, AZ Schools, WA State, OR State, Tech, K State, Okie Light, KS, Iowa State, Baylor, and TCU make a conference. Possibly WV and Cinci in here as well (would they keep byu and Houston for 16?). suds and/or fresno might be in play here for a Cali presence...maybe even more likely than WV/Cinci.

If merger stays at 12 or 14, byu and Houston attempt to form best of the rest (Cinci and WV here if merger stays at 12). If successful, the MWC is decimated. If not, outside chance Houston + 1 or 2 more join MWC. byu back to Indy.

Directional Florida back to American (maybe Cinci and/or WV here?)

Under no scenario will the MWC add a P5 team.

because of the money, you're right even if a new PAC is mostly MW teams

[aranderson]

Has anyone thought of the possibility of the PAC losing it's P5 status after this fallout? If so, assuming it were to happen and there were PAC leftovers that made sense and there was no P4 alternative why wouldn't we be able to take on the leftovers?

[OrediggerPoke]

Has anyone thought of the possibility of the PAC losing it's P5 status after this fallout? If so, assuming it were to happen and there were PAC leftovers that made sense and there was no P4 alternative why wouldn't we be able to take on the leftovers?

The PAC brand dwarfs the MWC brand. The existing PAC contracts dwarf those of the MWC. The PAC has about 10 times the basketball tourney credits of the MWC to be paid out over the next several years (tourney credits pay out over a 6 year period). PAC schools largely are considered top tier academically. The MWC isn’t ‘absorbing’ any PAC leftovers.

[aranderson]

Has anyone thought of the possibility of the PAC losing it's P5 status after this fallout? If so, assuming it were to happen and there were PAC leftovers that made sense and there was no P4 alternative why wouldn't we be able to take on the leftovers?

The PAC brand dwarfs the MWC brand. The existing PAC contracts dwarf those of the MWC. The PAC has about 10 times the basketball tourney credits of the MWC to be paid out over the next several years (tourney credits pay out over a 6 year period). PAC schools largely are considered top tier academically. The MWC isn’t ‘absorbing’ any PAC leftovers.

I fully understand everything you say. However I firmly believe even with academics and basketball payouts that the idea of OSU and WSU aren't that far off of our profile. They as institutions are on the level with AFA, CSU as far as Tier 1 institutions. I am most definitely missing a couple. But just the same those two Universities as a whole are more similar than dissimilar.

But then also as an alternative if the Big 12 raids Utah, the two Arizona's and Colorado, And the BIG takes on Oregon, and Washington, who do they have left to choose from to remain relevant other than letting their academic requirements drop and absorb the entirety of the MWC and create a bottom rung P5 conference.

I'm just spitballing here and running every scenario through my head, but I do see a conference dying in all of them, but I also see Wyoming benefitting in all of them as well.

Just my

[ragtimejoe1]

Has anyone thought of the possibility of the PAC losing it's P5 status after this fallout? If so, assuming it were to happen and there were PAC leftovers that made sense and there was no P4 alternative why wouldn't we be able to take on the leftovers?

The PAC brand dwarfs the MWC brand. The existing PAC contracts dwarf those of the MWC. The PAC has about 10 times the basketball tourney credits of the MWC to be paid out over the next several years (tourney credits pay out over a 6 year period). PAC schools largely are considered top tier academically. The MWC isn’t ‘absorbing’ any PAC leftovers.

I fully understand everything you say. However I firmly believe even with academics and basketball payouts that the idea of OSU and WSU aren't that far off of our profile. They as institutions are on the level with AFA, CSU as far as Tier 1 institutions. I am most definitely missing a couple. But just the same those two Universities as a whole are more similar than dissimilar.

But then also as an alternative if the Big 12 raids Utah, the two Arizona's and Colorado, And the BIG takes on Oregon, and Washington, who do they have left to choose from to remain relevant other than letting their academic requirements drop and absorb the entirety of the MWC and create a bottom rung P5 conference.

I'm just spitballing here and running every scenario through my head, but I do see a conference dying in all of them, but I also see Wyoming benefitting in all of them as well.

Just my

Wouldn't surprise me to see them lose P5 status but it all depends on how many teams leave. WA, Oregon, Cal, and Stanford more closely match the B1G but if B1G doesn't take them, will the Big12? I honestly don't think they would unless the money was huge. Any scenario where any of those remain = Pac12 poaching us.

If 4 or more teams remain in the Pac = them poaching us.

If only 2 then it depends on TV mostly. I'd imagine bsu, fsu, suds, unlv, and csu would jump at the chance to join wsu and osu under the Pac banner. You only need a couple more at this point; HI would be in. Any other MWC school would follow because the MWC would be on life support.

It'd be interesting to see if they made a play for Gonzaga and St. Mary's or other bball schools.

Pac going to 2 or 4 is our worst case.

No. WSU or osu are not joining the MWC.

[307bball]

For you guys that are running the scenarios...What are the odds that in 2025 or 2027 Wyoming is in a conference with the Dakota schools, the Montana schools, and Idaho?

Are we sure that can't happen?

[CowboyNV]

Unfortunately, I think Wyoming will end up being a casualty in all of this. Small fan base, smaller stadium, and since 2000, they have only finished above .500 in conference play 4 times. Their resume just isn't good enough to make them an attractive choice for a "new" conference. Like 307bball said, Wyoming may be relegated to some kind of arrangement with the smaller schools - MSU, U of M, ISU, U of I, SDS, and NDSU + possibly NMSU..

[OrediggerPoke]

For you guys that are running the scenarios...What are the odds that in 2025 or 2027 Wyoming is in a conference with the Dakota schools, the Montana schools, and Idaho?

Are we sure that can't happen?

I already posted my projected 2027 MWC - I personally believe it is highly likely that Wyoming is left behind in a watered down MWC. We aren't going anywhere but some of our conference mates probably are. I believe Utah Tech, North Dakota State and South Dakota State are the most likely FCS to move to the MWC given their ambitions. I believe New Mexico State is the most likely FBS team to move to the MWC because I don't see New Mexico going anywhere either.

BTW - it is no secret that San Diego State, Boise State, Hawaii, UNLV, Colorado State, Fresno State, etc...are working the phones to try and move on.
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