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307bball
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ragtimejoe1 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:49 pm
307bball wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:38 pm
ragtimejoe1 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:32 am
Expat_Poke wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:59 pm 2018 was rough, then 2019 we had a tough schedule
I realize everyone has their own definitions, but, for reference...

SOS
2016 = 77
2017 = 84
2018 = 84
2019 = 85
2020 = 99

Not exactly tough in my opinion and certainly not murder's row. Basically bottom 1/3 to bottom 1/4 in fbs schedule strength. I'd think tough would have to at least be above top 1/2, but just my opinion.
How far do you have to move in a comparative stat like SOS before it would get tough to rank? For instance, If I asked you to rank two teams in order of SOS without looking ... if the two teams are Notre Dame and Tulsa, that is a pretty easy one to rank. What about Kansas St and TCU? My point being, if the consideration is only SOS...is there much difference between #50 and #83? Obviously top ten vs bottom 10 is a pretty big difference...what about the middle third? As an example of this...in 2019, Virginia Tech (8-5) ranked 81st in SOS while their conference counterpart Louisville (8-5) had the same record and ranked 46th in SOS, I would say, despite that difference in SOS looking huge, that it is ultimately pretty meaningless in ranking those two teams.

For my 2 cents, the actual ranking off SOS as calculated does not carry very much information in it outside of the extremes. If you are in the top 5% and bottom 5% I think it says something. I know that the BCS series calculation of SOS did not even account for home vs away games. It was just double the opponents' record plus opponents' opponent's record all divided by three. Maybe the current formula gives different weight to home/away. I consider the 2019 Wyoming season "tough" mostly because we faced our tougher opponents on the road vs at home.
I get the road game vs home but I think the main point as you outlined is that the schedule hasn't been appreciably different over the years much less a tough schedule.

That said, you aren't wrong in that Bohl teams struggle on the road, so non-cupcakes on the road do pose a significant challenge. Even cupcakes on the road aren't a guarantee.
Kind of...I'm mostly saying that the SOS metric is a crock. I have always heard about how SOS is supposed to be used for this or that and this discussion caused me to do a bit of research. Get this:
  • In the full football seasons from 2014 through 2019 (6 seasons), 8 non P5/non Notre Dame teams have had SOS in the top 60
  • None of those teams were from the MW
  • In 2019, 6 AAC teams were in the top 60 with Tulsa at #15, Houston at #32, Cincinatti at #47, USF at # 52, and Tulane at #60.
  • During that time, the highest MWC teams ranking was a three way tie at #66 between Wyo (2014), USU (2016), and BSU (2018)
  • There are only 65 teams in the P5 including Notre Dame
It's basically P5 in the top half and everybody else in the bottom half ... and there seems to be very little correlation between being a high SOS team and having a good record. The only reason you would even care about it is in trying to compare two one-loss teams from different conferences that are similar in every other way to see who gets the last playoff spot. I'm pretty sure that will not apply to a non-P5 school anytime soon.

So...the moral of the story...anybody who plays real big boy college football does not care about SOS because they are already inside the walled garden of the P5. If you want a respectable SOS ... Join the P5. The main point of SOS is to excuse your favorite teams losses and degrade the wins of teams better than yours.
ragtimejoe1
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307bball wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:53 pm
ragtimejoe1 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:49 pm
307bball wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:38 pm
ragtimejoe1 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:32 am
Expat_Poke wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:59 pm 2018 was rough, then 2019 we had a tough schedule
I realize everyone has their own definitions, but, for reference...

SOS
2016 = 77
2017 = 84
2018 = 84
2019 = 85
2020 = 99

Not exactly tough in my opinion and certainly not murder's row. Basically bottom 1/3 to bottom 1/4 in fbs schedule strength. I'd think tough would have to at least be above top 1/2, but just my opinion.
How far do you have to move in a comparative stat like SOS before it would get tough to rank? For instance, If I asked you to rank two teams in order of SOS without looking ... if the two teams are Notre Dame and Tulsa, that is a pretty easy one to rank. What about Kansas St and TCU? My point being, if the consideration is only SOS...is there much difference between #50 and #83? Obviously top ten vs bottom 10 is a pretty big difference...what about the middle third? As an example of this...in 2019, Virginia Tech (8-5) ranked 81st in SOS while their conference counterpart Louisville (8-5) had the same record and ranked 46th in SOS, I would say, despite that difference in SOS looking huge, that it is ultimately pretty meaningless in ranking those two teams.

For my 2 cents, the actual ranking off SOS as calculated does not carry very much information in it outside of the extremes. If you are in the top 5% and bottom 5% I think it says something. I know that the BCS series calculation of SOS did not even account for home vs away games. It was just double the opponents' record plus opponents' opponent's record all divided by three. Maybe the current formula gives different weight to home/away. I consider the 2019 Wyoming season "tough" mostly because we faced our tougher opponents on the road vs at home.
I get the road game vs home but I think the main point as you outlined is that the schedule hasn't been appreciably different over the years much less a tough schedule.

That said, you aren't wrong in that Bohl teams struggle on the road, so non-cupcakes on the road do pose a significant challenge. Even cupcakes on the road aren't a guarantee.
Kind of...I'm mostly saying that the SOS metric is a crock. I have always heard about how SOS is supposed to be used for this or that and this discussion caused me to do a bit of research. Get this:
  • In the full football seasons from 2014 through 2019 (6 seasons), 8 non P5/non Notre Dame teams have had SOS in the top 60
  • None of those teams were from the MW
  • In 2019, 6 AAC teams were in the top 60 with Tulsa at #15, Houston at #32, Cincinatti at #47, USF at # 52, and Tulane at #60.
  • During that time, the highest MWC teams ranking was a three way tie at #66 between Wyo (2014), USU (2016), and BSU (2018)
  • There are only 65 teams in the P5 including Notre Dame
It's basically P5 in the top half and everybody else in the bottom half ... and there seems to be very little correlation between being a high SOS team and having a good record. The only reason you would even care about it is in trying to compare two one-loss teams from different conferences that are similar in every other way to see who gets the last playoff spot. I'm pretty sure that will not apply to a non-P5 school anytime soon.

So...the moral of the story...anybody who plays real big boy college football does not care about SOS because they are already inside the walled garden of the P5. If you want a respectable SOS ... Join the P5. The main point of SOS is to excuse your favorite teams losses and degrade the wins of teams better than yours.
Once again, you are WAAAAY overcomplicating this. You certainly can't use SOS to split hairs, but to call a mid 80 SOS as a tough schedule is asinine especially when comparing to another mid 80s SOS. The FACT is that the MWC is a pretty weak conference in the FBS landscape and as a consequence WYO's schedule will rarely be tough. Tougher than the Sunbelt? Most years. Tougher than the AAC, not sure. Tougher than the ACC, no way. If we had 4 OOC games against any P5 teams, it would be considered brutal. P5 teams play 8 games minimum against P5 schools; P5 conferences are much tougher top to bottom than G5 conferences. The MWC was the last real threat to that partly because the MWC had a good run and partly because the Big East was such an outlier among the P5. Please don't overcomplicate this with, "well they have x money or y resources". Of course that is true, but it doesn't improve the MWC's position relative to theirs. It just explains it.

Who said anything about a good record? I simply said the schedules were similar year to year and ranked in the mid-80s makes it a leap to call them tough. I also acknowledged that everyone has their own definition of "tough".

That said, any team that fields warm blooded players is a threat to Bohl teams when the POKES are on the road. That doesn't make the schedule tough it just highlights the struggles the POKES have had on the road.
"There's always excuses for a sports program not winning or academic program not succeeding. And it's not that the excuses aren't true; it's that they aren't sufficient," --Sternberg
307bball
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ragtimejoe1 wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:43 am Once again, you are WAAAAY overcomplicating this. You certainly can't use SOS to split hairs, but to call a mid 80 SOS as a tough schedule is asinine especially when comparing to another mid 80s SOS. The FACT is that the MWC is a pretty weak conference in the FBS landscape and as a consequence WYO's schedule will rarely be tough. Tougher than the Sunbelt? Most years. Tougher than the AAC, not sure. Tougher than the ACC, no way. If we had 4 OOC games against any P5 teams, it would be considered brutal. P5 teams play 8 games minimum against P5 schools; P5 conferences are much tougher top to bottom than G5 conferences. The MWC was the last real threat to that partly because the MWC had a good run and partly because the Big East was such an outlier among the P5. Please don't overcomplicate this with, "well they have x money or y resources". Of course that is true, but it doesn't improve the MWC's position relative to theirs. It just explains it.

Who said anything about a good record? I simply said the schedules were similar year to year and ranked in the mid-80s makes it a leap to call them tough. I also acknowledged that everyone has their own definition of "tough".

That said, any team that fields warm blooded players is a threat to Bohl teams when the POKES are on the road. That doesn't make the schedule tough it just highlights the struggles the POKES have had on the road.
I would broaden out your comment about comparing teams in the mid 80s of SOS rankings to say that their is really no actual difference reflected in real schedule difficulty within an entire half of college football when rated by SOS. Since in any given year...the effect of home/away split makes way more of a difference. I'm not as hard as you are on Bohl for this....there are literally no bad or mediocre teams whose performance on the road is any good. Somebody did the math on this years ago and the effect of home vs away for teams with win percentage less than .600 is astonishingly huge. The only teams for whom the home/away differential does not matter are truly elite. I put Bohl's struggles to win on the road in the same bucket that every other program is struggling with. Bohl has other deficiencies that I find much more alarming....see how even bad teams find a way to produce offense.

Other "artificial" statistics tend to at least mean something...sort teams by offensive rating or defensive rating and the difference from #25 to #35 means quite a bit. This is not the case with SOS. All the higher SOS says is that your opponents and their opponents won more or les than another team. It carries precious little information as to actual schedule difficulty.

Because of all of this, I find points made using the SOS metric to be really weak...not only is the stat itself incredibly flawed...there is nothing that an athletic department can do about it if they can't change conferences. Just looking at the historical SOS numbers within the MWC...even if you go back to the years that had good BYU, TCU, and Utah teams...2008 through 2011, the Highest was UNLV at #28 in 2010 followed by UNM in 2009 at #57. Nobody else even cracked the top 60!

The point I'm making in terms of having a "tough" schedule is that a "tough" schedule will not be reflected by a higher SOS....It matters way more who you get at home vs on the road. For that reason, I, and fans like expat_poke evidently, use the word "tough' to describe a schedule that has a dis-advantageous order of opponents, bye-weeks, and home/away splits.

And finally...if i didn't over-complicate things...who would argue with you? :D :D
Expat_Poke
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ragtimejoe1 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:32 am
Expat_Poke wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:59 pm 2018 was rough, then 2019 we had a tough schedule
I realize everyone has their own definitions, but, for reference...

SOS
2016 = 77
2017 = 84
2018 = 84
2019 = 85
2020 = 99

Not exactly tough in my opinion and certainly not murder's row. Basically bottom 1/3 to bottom 1/4 in fbs schedule strength. I'd think tough would have to at least be above top 1/2, but just my opinion.
That is one way to look at it, but let's look at the actual season and games before relying too much on what can be iffy SOS calculations. At the end of the 2019 season the MWC had two top 25 ranked teams and both of those Wyoming played on the road. The MWC having two top 25 teams at the end of the season doesn't happen all that often. Those SOS calculations have their faults i.e. if you play one really really weak opponent at home that is going to average out or even wipe out going to play a tough team on the road. In 2019 Wyoming played at Boise St (finished ranked 23), at Air Force (Finished Ranked 22), and at 10-3 SDSU, and at Utah St. Wyoming did not play Hawaii. When your 4 toughest conference opponents (4 of the top 5 teams in the conference) are all on the road, that is a difficult conference slate. MWC also finished respectfully in bowls going 5-2 with bad Boise St (laid an egg) and Utah State losses while Air Force, SDSU, and Hawaii represented the conference well. The conference also had some solid early OOC wins that year. I think those SOS numbers are underrating the MWC that year.
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ragtimejoe1
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Expat_Poke wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:34 pm
ragtimejoe1 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:32 am
Expat_Poke wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:59 pm 2018 was rough, then 2019 we had a tough schedule
I realize everyone has their own definitions, but, for reference...

SOS
2016 = 77
2017 = 84
2018 = 84
2019 = 85
2020 = 99

Not exactly tough in my opinion and certainly not murder's row. Basically bottom 1/3 to bottom 1/4 in fbs schedule strength. I'd think tough would have to at least be above top 1/2, but just my opinion.
That is one way to look at it, but let's look at the actual season and games before relying too much on what can be iffy SOS calculations. At the end of the 2019 season the MWC had two top 25 ranked teams and both of those Wyoming played on the road. The MWC having two top 25 teams at the end of the season doesn't happen all that often. Those SOS calculations have their faults i.e. if you play one really really weak opponent at home that is going to average out or even wipe out going to play a tough team on the road. In 2019 Wyoming played at Boise St (finished ranked 23), at Air Force (Finished Ranked 22), and at 10-3 SDSU, and at Utah St. Wyoming did not play Hawaii. When your 4 toughest conference opponents (4 of the top 5 teams in the conference) are all on the road, that is a difficult conference slate. MWC also finished respectfully in bowls going 5-2 with bad Boise St (laid an egg) and Utah State losses while Air Force, SDSU, and Hawaii represented the conference well. The conference also had some solid early OOC wins that year. I think those SOS numbers are underrating the MWC that year.
2018 had WSU which finished 18 in BCS
Utah State finished at about 26
Boise State finished at about 27
Missouri finished at about 14

I just can't see how that is appreciably softer than 2019?
"There's always excuses for a sports program not winning or academic program not succeeding. And it's not that the excuses aren't true; it's that they aren't sufficient," --Sternberg
ragtimejoe1
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307bball wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:22 pm The point I'm making in terms of having a "tough" schedule is that a "tough" schedule will not be reflected by a higher SOS....It matters way more who you get at home vs on the road. For that reason, I, and fans like expat_poke evidently, use the word "tough' to describe a schedule that has a dis-advantageous order of opponents, bye-weeks, and home/away splits.

And finally...if i didn't over-complicate things...who would argue with you? :D :D
I understand the concept of home vs away. I'm not picking on Bohl; it is just a fact that Bohl teams struggle mightily on the road. Whoever else in FBS that also struggles on the road doesn't make it less of a fact that Bohl struggles on the road.

To the point that we get the powerhouses of Utah St, AF, and Boise on the road vs. home is not an argument for a "tough" schedule. That would mean we have a "tough" schedule every other year. In 2019 we were also at Tulsa and loss. Hell, our home wins were against an ok Mizzou team (that year but still a good win), Idaho, UNLV, NM, NV, CSU. Outside of Mizzou, I'd say that season followed the trend of beating terrible teams, tossups with average teams, and losing to the better teams. I don't think the schedule was any tougher or home and away made that much of a difference.

In 2018, OOC had 2 pretty good P5 teams plus still had BSU and the rest.

Sorry, I just can't buy we have a tough schedule almost ever much less a "tougher" schedule one year to the next.
"There's always excuses for a sports program not winning or academic program not succeeding. And it's not that the excuses aren't true; it's that they aren't sufficient," --Sternberg
307bball
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ragtimejoe1 wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:10 am
307bball wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:22 pm The point I'm making in terms of having a "tough" schedule is that a "tough" schedule will not be reflected by a higher SOS....It matters way more who you get at home vs on the road. For that reason, I, and fans like expat_poke evidently, use the word "tough' to describe a schedule that has a dis-advantageous order of opponents, bye-weeks, and home/away splits.

And finally...if i didn't over-complicate things...who would argue with you? :D :D
I understand the concept of home vs away. I'm not picking on Bohl; it is just a fact that Bohl teams struggle mightily on the road. Whoever else in FBS that also struggles on the road doesn't make it less of a fact that Bohl struggles on the road.

To the point that we get the powerhouses of Utah St, AF, and Boise on the road vs. home is not an argument for a "tough" schedule. That would mean we have a "tough" schedule every other year. In 2019 we were also at Tulsa and loss. Hell, our home wins were against an ok Mizzou team (that year but still a good win), Idaho, UNLV, NM, NV, CSU. Outside of Mizzou, I'd say that season followed the trend of beating terrible teams, tossups with average teams, and losing to the better teams. I don't think the schedule was any tougher or home and away made that much of a difference.

In 2018, OOC had 2 pretty good P5 teams plus still had BSU and the rest.

Sorry, I just can't buy we have a tough schedule almost ever much less a "tougher" schedule one year to the next.
Meh...SOS is meaningless...What games you get at home vs away objectively make schedules less or more difficult in a way that SOS does not capture. Not only that, but, as you have pointed out, our schedules were way tougher in the days when the conference had Utah, TCU, and BYU in it and the SOS during that era did not place us any higher! (and by higher...I mean an actual delta in SOS that would make a difference in bottom half vs top half of SOS)

If you have a cupcake on the road you are more likely to stub your toe....
If you play a powerhouse at home you are more likely to pull off the upset...

Take the names of the teams out of it since how good a particular team is in a given year fluctuates. If you rank order the teams you play by how good they are...and you play all of the good ones at home and all of the bad ones on the road....that is my definition of an "easy" schedule....and SOS does not factor in.

The trend of beating terrible teams, tossups with average teams, and losing to good teams definitely holds overall....I would also say that if you only look at home games you get:

Beating terrible teams, beating average teams, and tossups with good teams

If you only look at away games:

Tossups with terrible teams, losing to average teams, losing to good teams.
ragtimejoe1
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307bball wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 8:48 am
Meh...SOS is meaningless...What games you get at home vs away objectively make schedules less or more difficult in a way that SOS does not capture. Not only that, but, as you have pointed out, our schedules were way tougher in the days when the conference had Utah, TCU, and BYU in it and the SOS during that era did not place us any higher! (and by higher...I mean an actual delta in SOS that would make a difference in bottom half vs top half of SOS)

If you have a cupcake on the road you are more likely to stub your toe....
If you play a powerhouse at home you are more likely to pull off the upset...

Take the names of the teams out of it since how good a particular team is in a given year fluctuates. If you rank order the teams you play by how good they are...and you play all of the good ones at home and all of the bad ones on the road....that is my definition of an "easy" schedule....and SOS does not factor in.

The trend of beating terrible teams, tossups with average teams, and losing to good teams definitely holds overall....I would also say that if you only look at home games you get:

Beating terrible teams, beating average teams, and tossups with good teams

If you only look at away games:

Tossups with terrible teams, losing to average teams, losing to good teams.
Got it. Every other year, we have an incredibly tough schedule :?

We beat cupcakes most time (home or away); we are tossups with anyone with a pulse (home or away); and we lose to tough teams most times (home or away). The reason the POKES are so consistent is because the schedule is consistently full of cupcakes to marginal teams with very few good teams in any given year.

Take bsu as a perfect example of home vs away against good teams. In 7 years, there is 1 win. Here is margin of victory:
Home loss by 8
Away loss by 3
Home loss by 20 :o
Away loss by 10
Home win by 2
Away loss by 20
Home loss by 49 :o

Interestingly, your example about TCU et al. blows your theory out of the water. WYO's SOS in that era was in the 60s usually and now in the 80s. Everyone with half a brain knows that was a way tougher MWC than today. Looks like an increase in SOS of about 20 accurately reflects that.
"There's always excuses for a sports program not winning or academic program not succeeding. And it's not that the excuses aren't true; it's that they aren't sufficient," --Sternberg
307bball
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ragtimejoe1 wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:26 am
Got it. Every other year, we have an incredibly tough schedule :?
I'm starting to see a pattern where you argue against points literally nobody made....you are the one putting forth this "every other year" nonsense.
ragtimejoe1 wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:26 am We beat cupcakes most time (home or away); we are tossups with anyone with a pulse (home or away); and we lose to tough teams most times (home or away). The reason the POKES are so consistent is because the schedule is consistently full of cupcakes to marginal teams with very few good teams in any given year.

Take bsu as a perfect example of home vs away against good teams. In 7 years, there is 1 win. Here is margin of victory:
Home loss by 8
Away loss by 3
Home loss by 20 :o
Away loss by 10
Home win by 2
Away loss by 20
Home loss by 49 :o
SOS does not account for margin of victory...again...it's a trash stat whose main purpose is to excuse peoples favorite teams/coaches losses while denigrating rivals wins.
ragtimejoe1 wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:26 am Interestingly, your example about TCU et al. blows your theory out of the water. WYO's SOS in that era was in the 60s usually and now in the 80s. Everyone with half a brain knows that was a way tougher MWC than today. Looks like an increase in SOS of about 20 accurately reflects that.
As I said...(do you even read the posts before you reply?), a move from 60 to 80 (which didn't even happen) in SOS is completely meaningless.

Avg SOS ranking for Wyo from '06-'11: 74.5
Avg SOS ranking for Wyo from '14-'19: 84.3

It's a synthetic statistic that does not capture the actual difficulty of a given schedule...but hey..you love it. More power to you.
ragtimejoe1
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307bball wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:18 am
I'm starting to see a pattern where you argue against points literally nobody made....you are the one putting forth this "every other year" nonsense.
Umm, we rotate bsu, usu, and af every other year, so based on this I'd say you either argue that our schedule is much tougher every other year or your argument is bs (which reality is the latter)...
307bball wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 8:48 am Meh...SOS is meaningless...What games you get at home vs away objectively make schedules less or more difficult in a way that SOS does not capture.
307bball wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:18 am SOS does not account for margin of victory...again...it's a trash stat whose main purpose is to excuse peoples favorite teams/coaches losses while denigrating rivals wins.
No Sh#t Sherlock. The example just illustrated how your narrative of home vs away being the end all be all is bs. Over 7 years, WYO was generally more competitive against bsu on the road sans the 1 home win which really was a tossup game like several on the road were. WYO was also blitzed at home more often than on the road.
307bball wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:18 am As I said...(do you even read the posts before you reply?), a move from 60 to 80 (which didn't even happen) in SOS is completely meaningless.

Avg SOS ranking for Wyo from '06-'11: 74.5
Avg SOS ranking for Wyo from '14-'19: 84.3

It's a synthetic statistic that does not capture the actual difficulty of a given schedule...but hey..you love it. More power to you.
Are you saying the MWC in the older era wasn't tougher? If not, it looks the SOS captured that on average. Hell, take conference strength of any metric you want then apply that to the schedule. No matter how you cut it, you haven't 1) enforced the concept that we have a tough schedule or 2) clearly outlined how 2019 was so much tougher than 2018 (where we had 2 T25 P5 programs on the schedule). If you use the, "well we had to play bsu, usu, and af on the road excuses, then that applies every other year?

:?
"There's always excuses for a sports program not winning or academic program not succeeding. And it's not that the excuses aren't true; it's that they aren't sufficient," --Sternberg
307bball
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ragtimejoe1 wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:55 am
307bball wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:18 am
I'm starting to see a pattern where you argue against points literally nobody made....you are the one putting forth this "every other year" nonsense.
Umm, we rotate bsu, usu, and af every other year, so based on this I'd say you either argue that our schedule is much tougher every other year or your argument is bs (which reality is the latter)...
307bball wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 8:48 am Meh...SOS is meaningless...What games you get at home vs away objectively make schedules less or more difficult in a way that SOS does not capture.
307bball wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:18 am SOS does not account for margin of victory...again...it's a trash stat whose main purpose is to excuse peoples favorite teams/coaches losses while denigrating rivals wins.
No Sh#t Sherlock. The example just illustrated how your narrative of home vs away being the end all be all is bs. Over 7 years, WYO was generally more competitive against bsu on the road sans the 1 home win which really was a tossup game like several on the road were. WYO was also blitzed at home more often than on the road.
307bball wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:18 am As I said...(do you even read the posts before you reply?), a move from 60 to 80 (which didn't even happen) in SOS is completely meaningless.

Avg SOS ranking for Wyo from '06-'11: 74.5
Avg SOS ranking for Wyo from '14-'19: 84.3

It's a synthetic statistic that does not capture the actual difficulty of a given schedule...but hey..you love it. More power to you.
Are you saying the MWC in the older era wasn't tougher? If not, it looks the SOS captured that on average. Hell, take conference strength of any metric you want then apply that to the schedule. No matter how you cut it, you haven't 1) enforced the concept that we have a tough schedule or 2) clearly outlined how 2019 was so much tougher than 2018 (where we had 2 T25 P5 programs on the schedule). If you use the, "well we had to play bsu, usu, and af on the road excuses, then that applies every other year?

:?
Bah...either you are intentionally missing what I'm putting out there about the home/away stuff or I'm being unclear...(or some combo thereof).

Not only was the MWC way tougher back then...in conference power rankings by ESPN and various sports coverage entities it was somewhere around the second or fourth toughest. And even then ... almost nobody in the MWC those years cracked the top 60 of SOS....If that does not invalidate SOS I don't know what does. You seem to be moved by a ~10 position change in SOS being evidence that the stat means something, I am not.

You can make the claim all you want that having the better teams on your schedule played at home vs away makes no difference but it clearly does...it's incomprehensible to claim otherwise. Vegas understands this when they set lines and give over/unders on win totals. They care, for instance, whether Clemson plays NC state at home vs on the road. They may still think Clemson will win but it goes from a sure bet to something less. SOS is completely blind to those nuances. It is also not as simple as you make it out to be with your "we get afa, bsu, usu at home on alternating years" comment....there is nothing written in stone that those will always be the best teams....heck...SJSU was the perennial cupcake and look what happened last year. I'll say it again...

Take the names of the teams out of it since how good a particular team is in a given year fluctuates. If you rank order the teams you play by how good they are...and you play all of the good ones at home and all of the bad ones on the road....that is my definition of an "easy" schedule....and SOS does not factor in.
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307bball wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 11:46 am
Bah...either you are intentionally missing what I'm putting out there about the home/away stuff or I'm being unclear...(or some combo thereof).

Not only was the MWC way tougher back then...in conference power rankings by ESPN and various sports coverage entities it was somewhere around the second or fourth toughest. And even then ... almost nobody in the MWC those years cracked the top 60 of SOS....If that does not invalidate SOS I don't know what does. You seem to be moved by a ~10 position change in SOS being evidence that the stat means something, I am not.

You can make the claim all you want that having the better teams on your schedule played at home vs away makes no difference but it clearly does...it's incomprehensible to claim otherwise. Vegas understands this when they set lines and give over/unders on win totals. They care, for instance, whether Clemson plays NC state at home vs on the road. They may still think Clemson will win but it goes from a sure bet to something less. SOS is completely blind to those nuances. It is also not as simple as you make it out to be with your "we get afa, bsu, usu at home on alternating years" comment....there is nothing written in stone that those will always be the best teams....heck...SJSU was the perennial cupcake and look what happened last year. I'll say it again...

Take the names of the teams out of it since how good a particular team is in a given year fluctuates. If you rank order the teams you play by how good they are...and you play all of the good ones at home and all of the bad ones on the road....that is my definition of an "easy" schedule....and SOS does not factor in.
Let's distill this down: I said that I don't view our schedule as tough ever (opinion); however, I also don't understand how 2019 is appreciably tougher than 2018 and I used sos as 1 METRIC to indicate that.

Number 1) Use whatever metric you want and explain to me how 2019 was a much tougher schedule than 2018.

2018 had WSU, BSU, USU, and AF home with Mizzou Away
2019 had Mizzou home and BSU, USU, and AF away.

If you are basing the "tougher" on the fact that we had BSU, USU, and AF away, would you agree that those are generally our tougher opponents in division? If so, then why isn't every other year considered a tough schedule?

I didn't say home vs away doesn't matter at all just that it doesn't make 1 year much tougher than the other because of home and away. The data backs it up; in general, WYO beats creampuffs, tossup with teams that field warm bodies, and generally loses to good teams regardless of where the game is played. With 3 of the better teams in our division either all home or all away, it helps skew the home-away win loss record. Those 3 teams were a likely loss or tossup at best regardless of where the game is played. If we have a home schedule of tough teams and a road schedule of cream puffs, then WYO would look like a better road team.

2) Again, how is 2019 much tougher than 2018? If it is home vs away on the 3 better teams in our division, then why isn't every other year considered a tough schedule?
"There's always excuses for a sports program not winning or academic program not succeeding. And it's not that the excuses aren't true; it's that they aren't sufficient," --Sternberg
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If we had more good teams at home in 18... I'll call that easier... You may be unconvinced... That is fine, I'm not impressed by SOS.

My criticism is of using SOS to justify... Well anything really.

I'm not comparing Wyoming schedules to other teams schedule... (And if I was I would certainly not use SOS). I'm comparing Wyoming schedules to other wyoming schedules. If wyoming has a year where they rank at 100 in SOS with all of the tougher teams on the road...I'm calling that a tougher schedule that one ranked 60 with the tougher teams at home. This assumes we are talking about the general level of conference competition.... Not some hypothetical where we have alabama, Ohio St, Clemson, and Note Dame in laramie.

This is the statement I'll make again:


Take the names of the teams out of it since how good a particular team is in a given year fluctuates. If you rank order the teams you play by how good they are...and you play all of the good ones at home and all of the bad ones on the road....that is my definition of an "easy" schedule....and SOS does not factor in.

I don't buy SOS for a second. There is a lot of crap stats out there but SOS takes the cake.
ragtimejoe1
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307bball wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:30 pm If we had more good teams at home in 18... I'll call that easier... You may be unconvinced... That is fine, I'm not impressed by SOS.

My criticism is of using SOS to justify... Well anything really.

I'm not comparing Wyoming schedules to other teams schedule... (And if I was I would certainly not use SOS). I'm comparing Wyoming schedules to other wyoming schedules. If wyoming has a year where they rank at 100 in SOS with all of the tougher teams on the road...I'm calling that a tougher schedule that one ranked 60 with the tougher teams at home. This assumes we are talking about the general level of conference competition.... Not some hypothetical where we have alabama, Ohio St, Clemson, and Note Dame in laramie.

This is the statement I'll make again:


Take the names of the teams out of it since how good a particular team is in a given year fluctuates. If you rank order the teams you play by how good they are...and you play all of the good ones at home and all of the bad ones on the road....that is my definition of an "easy" schedule....and SOS does not factor in.

I don't buy SOS for a second. There is a lot of crap stats out there but SOS takes the cake.
Once again, the debate is about how 2019 was a tough schedule and 2018 wasn't.

Use any metric you want. Why was 2019 so tough? Sheesh. Don't use SOS; use whatever you want.

If you say because bsu, af, and usu are away, then explain why every other year isn't considered tough.

For the record, in that 2 year span, if I remember correctly we were 1-5 against those 3 teams. Data doesn't support your argument that home makes that big of difference against "tougher" teams; they are generally a loss, regardless.

2018 had 2 T25 P5 teams and 2 MWC teams that were near T25. Use any metric and explain how that is so much easier than 2019.
"There's always excuses for a sports program not winning or academic program not succeeding. And it's not that the excuses aren't true; it's that they aren't sufficient," --Sternberg
307bball
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ragtimejoe1 wrote: Sat Mar 20, 2021 8:27 am
307bball wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:30 pm If we had more good teams at home in 18... I'll call that easier... You may be unconvinced... That is fine, I'm not impressed by SOS.

My criticism is of using SOS to justify... Well anything really.

I'm not comparing Wyoming schedules to other teams schedule... (And if I was I would certainly not use SOS). I'm comparing Wyoming schedules to other wyoming schedules. If wyoming has a year where they rank at 100 in SOS with all of the tougher teams on the road...I'm calling that a tougher schedule that one ranked 60 with the tougher teams at home. This assumes we are talking about the general level of conference competition.... Not some hypothetical where we have alabama, Ohio St, Clemson, and Note Dame in laramie.

This is the statement I'll make again:


Take the names of the teams out of it since how good a particular team is in a given year fluctuates. If you rank order the teams you play by how good they are...and you play all of the good ones at home and all of the bad ones on the road....that is my definition of an "easy" schedule....and SOS does not factor in.

I don't buy SOS for a second. There is a lot of crap stats out there but SOS takes the cake.
Once again, the debate is about how 2019 was a tough schedule and 2018 wasn't.

Use any metric you want. Why was 2019 so tough? Sheesh. Don't use SOS; use whatever you want.

If you say because bsu, af, and usu are away, then explain why every other year isn't considered tough.

For the record, in that 2 year span, if I remember correctly we were 1-5 against those 3 teams. Data doesn't support your argument that home makes that big of difference against "tougher" teams; they are generally a loss, regardless.

2018 had 2 T25 P5 teams and 2 MWC teams that were near T25. Use any metric and explain how that is so much easier than 2019.
I'm grant you that you seem very interested in deciding which year of 2018 and 2019 was tougher. I told you how I would decide that. You could rank order the teams we played and see for yourself. If SOS factors in (which for me it does not) than you could arrive at another conclusion. Ultimately it feels like we are talking past each other a bit.

Let's just A-B test this..

Take the proposed 2021 schedule and have every game at home.... Then rewind the tape and play every game on the road. Which one is the taller task? SOS says they are the same.... There are other schedule related things that make a schedule more or less difficult that do not change SOS as well.

I guess if you know absolutely nothing about the schedule and only have the SOS to go on... That would be how you would have to decide what schedule was more or less difficult. For me, as soon as I have more information, I'll set SOS side.
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307bball wrote: Sat Mar 20, 2021 9:41 am
ragtimejoe1 wrote: Sat Mar 20, 2021 8:27 am
307bball wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:30 pm If we had more good teams at home in 18... I'll call that easier... You may be unconvinced... That is fine, I'm not impressed by SOS.

My criticism is of using SOS to justify... Well anything really.

I'm not comparing Wyoming schedules to other teams schedule... (And if I was I would certainly not use SOS). I'm comparing Wyoming schedules to other wyoming schedules. If wyoming has a year where they rank at 100 in SOS with all of the tougher teams on the road...I'm calling that a tougher schedule that one ranked 60 with the tougher teams at home. This assumes we are talking about the general level of conference competition.... Not some hypothetical where we have alabama, Ohio St, Clemson, and Note Dame in laramie.

This is the statement I'll make again:


Take the names of the teams out of it since how good a particular team is in a given year fluctuates. If you rank order the teams you play by how good they are...and you play all of the good ones at home and all of the bad ones on the road....that is my definition of an "easy" schedule....and SOS does not factor in.

I don't buy SOS for a second. There is a lot of crap stats out there but SOS takes the cake.
Once again, the debate is about how 2019 was a tough schedule and 2018 wasn't.

Use any metric you want. Why was 2019 so tough? Sheesh. Don't use SOS; use whatever you want.

If you say because bsu, af, and usu are away, then explain why every other year isn't considered tough.

For the record, in that 2 year span, if I remember correctly we were 1-5 against those 3 teams. Data doesn't support your argument that home makes that big of difference against "tougher" teams; they are generally a loss, regardless.

2018 had 2 T25 P5 teams and 2 MWC teams that were near T25. Use any metric and explain how that is so much easier than 2019.
I'm grant you that you seem very interested in deciding which year of 2018 and 2019 was tougher. I told you how I would decide that. You could rank order the teams we played and see for yourself. If SOS factors in (which for me it does not) than you could arrive at another conclusion. Ultimately it feels like we are talking past each other a bit.

Let's just A-B test this..

Take the proposed 2021 schedule and have every game at home.... Then rewind the tape and play every game on the road. Which one is the taller task? SOS says they are the same.... There are other schedule related things that make a schedule more or less difficult that do not change SOS as well.

I guess if you know absolutely nothing about the schedule and only have the SOS to go on... That would be how you would have to decide what schedule was more or less difficult. For me, as soon as I have more information, I'll set SOS side.
Umm, questioning the difference between those 2 years is what the original question about. I used 1 metric (sos) but there tons that can be used. The SOS debate is irrelevant. Use any metric you want but the home vs away is far weaker than sos.

If in 1 year our top 4 opponents are ranked (this is just an example) 14, 18, 25, and 27 (assume rest are also rans), and in year 2 the top 4 are 23, 28, 35, and 37. In year 1, 3 of 4 of the games are at home and year 2, 3 of 4 games are away. You would say year 2 is a tougher schedule? I'd say we're 0-6 or 1-5 regardless which means home doesn't help or make the schedule easier.

Odd that our record against "tougher" teams doesn't appreciably change when we play at home. The home record improves dramatically, however, with weaker teams at home.

If anything, I'd say the exact opposite of what you are inferring. Where we play "tougher" teams matters not because they are likely losses. However, getting the middle of the road teams (usually tossup games) at home, gives us the 3 point or so home field advantage to increase win percentage against those teams. The overall win/loss record suffers more by getting the middling teams on the road. That's totally off the cuff; numbers may prove me wrong.
"There's always excuses for a sports program not winning or academic program not succeeding. And it's not that the excuses aren't true; it's that they aren't sufficient," --Sternberg
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ragtimejoe1 wrote: Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:05 am
Umm, questioning the difference between those 2 years is what the original question about. I used 1 metric (sos) but there tons that can be used. The SOS debate is irrelevant. Use any metric you want but the home vs away is far weaker than sos.
I agree that you questioning how those two years were ranked is what piqued your interest...I was interested by the use of SOS to rank the difficulty of a given schedule. I already told you how I would rank two different Wyoming schedules.
ragtimejoe1 wrote: Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:05 am If in 1 year our top 4 opponents are ranked (this is just an example) 14, 18, 25, and 27 (assume rest are also rans), and in year 2 the top 4 are 23, 28, 35, and 37. In year 1, 3 of 4 of the games are at home and year 2, 3 of 4 games are away. You would say year 2 is a tougher schedule? I'd say we're 0-6 or 1-5 regardless which means home doesn't help or make the schedule easier.
Yeah...I think you are right that we would lose most of those games...the typical Wyoming team has never been terribly competitive with teams in the top 40. I would predict (sadly) that Wyoming would lose all of those games...AND More games at home would be easier than More games on the road. It's like...I'd rather play Clemson in laramie than on the road...but I don't think we have much chance of winning either...It might go from 250:1 odds to 200:1.

As Lloyd Christmas would say "So your telling me there is a chance!"

ragtimejoe1 wrote: Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:05 am Odd that our record against "tougher" teams doesn't appreciably change when we play at home. The home record improves dramatically, however, with weaker teams at home.

If anything, I'd say the exact opposite of what you are inferring. Where we play "tougher" teams matters not because they are likely losses. However, getting the middle of the road teams (usually tossup games) at home, gives us the 3 point or so home field advantage to increase win percentage against those teams. The overall win/loss record suffers more by getting the middling teams on the road. That's totally off the cuff; numbers may prove me wrong.
I don't think that to be odd at all...see the above example about playing tough teams.

Again...If something happened to War memorial stadium and we had to play every game on the road...SOS would say that schedule is the same as a schedule where we played every one of those teams at home. That is one of the reasons I don't like SOS.
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SOS is crap. Perception means more these days than anything. If WYO was able to schedule a Missouri, Iowa State, Oregon State types ( on the road for argument sake)for 3/4 of their non-conference with the warm up game against a sunbelt/wac/aac team (at home) and actually win 3 of those games. Don't you think that would boost the perception of a program instead of playing 3/4 of their games against WAC/Summit/Big Sky (at home) and a money game against a top tier P5 team (on the road) that they get blown out? Perception is everything!!!!
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My $0.02 on the SOS subject. It should ONLY be to break ties like in the NFL to determine playoff qualifiers or where games should be played at. Otherwise, it's crap.

As PokeTransplant just said...perception is everything!!! Been that way since probably the 70s.
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ragtimejoe1
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For the record, a post above said 2019 schedule was tougher than 2018 and I can't figure out what made 2019 so tough relative to 2018. I used sos as 1 metric to show similarities. I haven't done it but I'd guess average rankings of teams played would be similar.

307 says it's because of who we get at home vs away. We'll have to agree to disagree. I think quality of opponent effects record the most and not game location. If anything more home games against tossup teams should help record more than getting a "tough " team at home.

In that regard, the 2019 schedule might have been set up better. We were unlikely to beat bsu, af, or usu anyway.

Either way, I can't buy into the notion 1 year's schedule is a lot tougher because of home vs away. For some reason, 307 really wanted to make it about the sos formula.
"There's always excuses for a sports program not winning or academic program not succeeding. And it's not that the excuses aren't true; it's that they aren't sufficient," --Sternberg
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