Kind of...I'm mostly saying that the SOS metric is a crock. I have always heard about how SOS is supposed to be used for this or that and this discussion caused me to do a bit of research. Get this:ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:49 pmI get the road game vs home but I think the main point as you outlined is that the schedule hasn't been appreciably different over the years much less a tough schedule.307bball wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:38 pmHow far do you have to move in a comparative stat like SOS before it would get tough to rank? For instance, If I asked you to rank two teams in order of SOS without looking ... if the two teams are Notre Dame and Tulsa, that is a pretty easy one to rank. What about Kansas St and TCU? My point being, if the consideration is only SOS...is there much difference between #50 and #83? Obviously top ten vs bottom 10 is a pretty big difference...what about the middle third? As an example of this...in 2019, Virginia Tech (8-5) ranked 81st in SOS while their conference counterpart Louisville (8-5) had the same record and ranked 46th in SOS, I would say, despite that difference in SOS looking huge, that it is ultimately pretty meaningless in ranking those two teams.ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:32 amI realize everyone has their own definitions, but, for reference...
2016 = 77
2017 = 84
2018 = 84
2019 = 85
2020 = 99
Not exactly tough in my opinion and certainly not murder's row. Basically bottom 1/3 to bottom 1/4 in fbs schedule strength. I'd think tough would have to at least be above top 1/2, but just my opinion.
For my 2 cents, the actual ranking off SOS as calculated does not carry very much information in it outside of the extremes. If you are in the top 5% and bottom 5% I think it says something. I know that the BCS series calculation of SOS did not even account for home vs away games. It was just double the opponents' record plus opponents' opponent's record all divided by three. Maybe the current formula gives different weight to home/away. I consider the 2019 Wyoming season "tough" mostly because we faced our tougher opponents on the road vs at home.
That said, you aren't wrong in that Bohl teams struggle on the road, so non-cupcakes on the road do pose a significant challenge. Even cupcakes on the road aren't a guarantee.
- In the full football seasons from 2014 through 2019 (6 seasons), 8 non P5/non Notre Dame teams have had SOS in the top 60
- None of those teams were from the MW
- In 2019, 6 AAC teams were in the top 60 with Tulsa at #15, Houston at #32, Cincinatti at #47, USF at # 52, and Tulane at #60.
- During that time, the highest MWC teams ranking was a three way tie at #66 between Wyo (2014), USU (2016), and BSU (2018)
- There are only 65 teams in the P5 including Notre Dame
So...the moral of the story...anybody who plays real big boy college football does not care about SOS because they are already inside the walled garden of the P5. If you want a respectable SOS ... Join the P5. The main point of SOS is to excuse your favorite teams losses and degrade the wins of teams better than yours.