Any predictions on the season happening?

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'PokeForLife
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bladerunnr wrote: Sat Jul 18, 2020 8:45 pm
Cowduck wrote: Sat Jul 18, 2020 12:47 pm Lmao major American cities are literally out of space in their morgues and people on here are claiming COVID is no big deal. You don’t sound tough talking like that, you sound like deranged members of a death cult.

By the way, they are discovering heart damage in nearly 50% of COVID survivors. We still don’t even know all the ways this virus can kill you.
See attached covid death chart. Note that deaths spiked in late April/early may at about 3k per day. The death rate now is 1k/day.
So why would morgues be filling up now? I'd like some data to back up that 50% claim. Did you get it from MSNBC? Because you sound like one of those hysterical liberals who want people to stay locked down, unless their rioting and looting, of course.

https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+d ... e&ie=UTF-8
Note that "heart damage" could just be referring to a transient increase in troponins, an enzyme released by stressed cardiac muscle. That happens in a lot of different illnesses and conditions, most of which do not cause lasting damage to the heart. In fact, I'd venture to bet that a number of guys on this board may have a small bump in troponins if they went on too far of a jog up a hill.
"Heart damage" is a perfect example of media sensationalism and their intentionally misleading tactics. They have absolutely no honest way of saying that 50% of people have heart damage in any meaningful or significant fashion.
Like was said before, the two guys making such claims should put up some sources, because everyone else on the other side have been quoting real sources lately.
ragtimejoe1
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Most hospitals and morgues operate relatively near capacity. Saying they are at capacity is often sensationalization to avoid providing real stats because the real stats aren't as click bait worthy. Example: city x is bringing in refrigerator trucks to hold expected dead bodies vs city x is expecting a 0.6% increase in death rates which could stress local morgue capacity.
WYO1016 wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:10 am I'm starting to think that Burman has been laying the pipe to ragtimejoe1's wife
Insults are the last resort of fools with a crumbling position.
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bladerunnr wrote: Sat Jul 18, 2020 8:45 pm
Cowduck wrote: Sat Jul 18, 2020 12:47 pm Lmao major American cities are literally out of space in their morgues and people on here are claiming COVID is no big deal. You don’t sound tough talking like that, you sound like deranged members of a death cult.

By the way, they are discovering heart damage in nearly 50% of COVID survivors. We still don’t even know all the ways this virus can kill you.
See attached covid death chart. Note that deaths spiked in late April/early may at about 3k per day. The death rate now is 1k/day.
So why would morgues be filling up now? I'd like some data to back up that 50% claim. Did you get it from MSNBC? Because you sound like one of those hysterical liberals who want people to stay locked down, unless their rioting and looting, of course.

https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+d ... e&ie=UTF-8
https://www.foxnews.com/us/texas-arizon ... deaths.amp
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50% experiencing heart damage is not confirmed, but see the Dutch study cited in this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... mptoms-who

And see this article for a good overview of what we know regarding the long term effects. Not a ton yet but none of it good.

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/8/21251899/c ... s-symptoms

As for morgue space, see:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-ariz ... s-morgues/

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/20 ... hospitals/

They had to bring refrigerated trucks to other cities for morgue overflow when their outbreaks were peaking too.

Go ahead and do some pedantic line-by-line breakdown of every article out there telling you that well over 100,000 people in the US alone have already died from this virus and things are worse now nationwide than they were in March. Denial isn’t just a river in Egypt. I’m not really interested in engaging with conspiracy theorists any further. It’s your conscience, not mine.
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Cowduck wrote: Sun Jul 19, 2020 11:55 am 50% experiencing heart damage is not confirmed, but see the Dutch study cited in this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... mptoms-who

And see this article for a good overview of what we know regarding the long term effects. Not a ton yet but none of it good.

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/8/21251899/c ... s-symptoms

As for morgue space, see:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-ariz ... s-morgues/

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/20 ... hospitals/

They had to bring refrigerated trucks to other cities for morgue overflow when their outbreaks were peaking too.

Go ahead and do some pedantic line-by-line breakdown of every article out there telling you that well over 100,000 people in the US alone have already died from this virus and things are worse now nationwide than they were in March. Denial isn’t just a river in Egypt. I’m not really interested in engaging with conspiracy theorists any further. It’s your conscience, not mine.
So, you stated that 50% of covid survivors have heart damage. The article in the Guardian is a survey of Dutch survivors (average age of 53). The survey was only of those who had reported lingering illness. In other words, those that had no ongoing symptoms were not part of the survey. The article doesn't state how many covid survivors didn't have any post covid problems.
That's kind of an important piece of data to leave out, isn't it? The article was written by a free lance journalist who admittedly included "anecdotal" evidence. "Denial" may not be a river in Egypt, but cherry picking left wing articles to bolster your pre conceived opinions are just as bad.
ragtimejoe1
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Cowduck wrote: Sun Jul 19, 2020 11:55 am
As for morgue space, see:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-ariz ... s-morgues/

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/20 ... hospitals/

They had to bring refrigerated trucks to other cities for morgue overflow when their outbreaks were peaking too.

Go ahead and do some pedantic line-by-line breakdown of every article out there telling you that well over 100,000 people in the US alone have already died from this virus and things are worse now nationwide than they were in March. Denial isn’t just a river in Egypt. I’m not really interested in engaging with conspiracy theorists any further. It’s your conscience, not mine.
Interesting that all PIC death rate declined from 8.1% to 6.4% in weeks 27 and 28, respectively. Yet, we are somehow worse than March? Hospitalization rates are stable with perhaps a slight uptick. Laboratory confirmed COVID hospitalization rates are on a downward trend with rates similar as the first part of March when COVID was first ramping up and now just below 4/100,000 (do that math, lol).

The week of July 11 saw that 6.4% of all deaths were pneumonia, influenza, or COVID. 12 straight weeks of a decline in that number. The epidemic threshold is 5.7% for that week which means we are a whopping 0.7% above the epidemic threshold. BTW, that death rate would not be above the threshold 3 weeks ago.

Quit getting your information from a bunch of click bait left wing nuthouses.

Florida Example: 102,808 deaths since 2/1/20 and 3,840 of those are from COVID. In other words, COVID accounted for ballpark of 3% of the deaths in Florida to date (some of those over-reported to be sure).
WYO1016 wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:10 am I'm starting to think that Burman has been laying the pipe to ragtimejoe1's wife
Insults are the last resort of fools with a crumbling position.
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Here's a couple Fox News articles for you. Which you have to go looking for since there's no coronavirus news on the main page of Fox News.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/doctor-w ... -disregard

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus- ... w-us-cases

Ya'll are outside your goddamned minds. Oh, by the way, my comrade on the antifa/commie left , Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas, has called in hundreds of military medical staff to address the outbreak. A totally normal thing that happens all the time.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/military-med ... oronavirus
ragtimejoe1
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Cowduck wrote: Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:08 pm Here's a couple Fox News articles for you. Which you have to go looking for since there's no coronavirus news on the main page of Fox News.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/doctor-w ... -disregard

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus- ... w-us-cases

Ya'll are outside your goddamned minds. Oh, by the way, my comrade on the antifa/commie left , Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas, has called in hundreds of military medical staff to address the outbreak. A totally normal thing that happens all the time.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/military-med ... oronavirus
If it bleeds it leads.

I stick with data rather than being spoon fed click bait from either side. 3 weeks ago Austin was going to be overrun in 10 days. Emergency hospitals have been set up in NY, Seattle, etc. only to NEVER see a patient. Been there. Read that chicken little BS over and over and over and.
WYO1016 wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:10 am I'm starting to think that Burman has been laying the pipe to ragtimejoe1's wife
Insults are the last resort of fools with a crumbling position.
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The Javits center treated 1,100 patients in New York City (from the NY Post which is probably a farther left rag than Jacobin, admittedly):

https://nypost.com/2020/05/01/javits-ce ... -patients/

Totally normal thing to requisition a large convention center in Manhattan to handle hospital overflow. Happens all the time.
ragtimejoe1
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Cowduck wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:31 pm The Javits center treated 1,100 patients in New York City (from the NY Post which is probably a farther left rag than Jacobin, admittedly):

https://nypost.com/2020/05/01/javits-ce ... -patients/

Totally normal thing to requisition a large convention center in Manhattan to handle hospital overflow. Happens all the time.
It is abundantly clear to me that the media, perhaps simply due to their limited brain capacity, fail to fully disclose or evaluate the statistics provided to them. It is extremely obvious when you can see major headlines in small parts of the CDC data.

Like I said, I prefer the data to some click bait reporter. BTW, I realize I over sensationalized the O patient thing, but the point remains. The Navy ship and all the other temporary hospitals were not required.

Just like Austin was going to be overrun in 10 days 3 or 4 weeks ago, all the chicken little crap will blow over.

I'm thinking the 3 models the CDC and media are ignoring might be closer to correct than the 4 doom and gloom models.
WYO1016 wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:10 am I'm starting to think that Burman has been laying the pipe to ragtimejoe1's wife
Insults are the last resort of fools with a crumbling position.
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Buddy the sky already fell. 140,000 + deaths and now we're over 1,000 dead in a day. Most of it was preventable. Believe whatever helps you sleep at night but here in the real world this is a catastrophe by any measure.
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Cowduck wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:46 pm Buddy the sky already fell. 140,000 + deaths and now we're over 1,000 dead in a day. Most of it was preventable. Believe whatever helps you sleep at night but here in the real world this is a catastrophe by any measure.
:lol: Data is what the data is and no, death is not preventable. Hell, it is starting to look like immunity is relatively short lived (like most coronaviruses) meaning you won't prevent people from getting it. People who say you are going to prevent deaths are full of it. The only way you contribute to deaths is if hospitals are overrun which hasn't happened in the US and won't happen.

The FACT remains if you are under 49 and no known health issues, you have a very minor chance of going to the hospital and almost 0 chance of death. That is an absolute fact based on the real data. Our excess deaths are near January 2018 levels (which were likely flu-driven). People with some kind of health conditions should take care, but for everyone else, the virus isn't that big of risk. That is also a FACT. There are 650,000 people who get chemo every year and the flu can be lethal for them. We don't shut down a country. We tell them to be careful.

Lock downs are stupid and ineffective. Everyone at some point will be exposed to this virus; it is like the common cold in that regard. Vaccines aren't coming in to save the day. This will pass and be one of the biggest blunders in history. By all means, continue to get spoon fed a bunch of hogwash from a terrible media. The virus is here, is real, will spread regardless of what we do, and is dangerous for those with underlying health conditions or older than 55. Outside of that? HUGELY overblown.
WYO1016 wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:10 am I'm starting to think that Burman has been laying the pipe to ragtimejoe1's wife
Insults are the last resort of fools with a crumbling position.
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WYO1016 wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:10 am I'm starting to think that Burman has been laying the pipe to ragtimejoe1's wife
Insults are the last resort of fools with a crumbling position.
ragtimejoe1
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Here's some more good info for the chicken littles:

CDC downgraded death estimate to 0.3% and this guy looked up the following stats: https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/c ... reopening/

Even this revised death rate overestimates the danger of the disease. Nearly half of all Covid deaths have occurred in nursing homes. About 93 percent of all deaths have occurred among those with an average of 2.5 comorbidities. More than 80 percent of all deaths have come from those aged 65 and older.

So, 7% occurred in people with fewer than 2.5 comorbidites. Multiply that by 0.3% death rate and you are a whopping risk of 0.021% chance of death if you have fewer than 2.5 comorbidities.

You gotta love this: Delaware just identifies 67 COVID deaths from April and adds it to the July data making it look like a big bump in July.

https://delawarestatenews.net/coronavir ... w-of-data/

:coffee:
WYO1016 wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:10 am I'm starting to think that Burman has been laying the pipe to ragtimejoe1's wife
Insults are the last resort of fools with a crumbling position.
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Cowduck wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:46 pm Buddy the sky already fell. 140,000 + deaths and now we're over 1,000 dead in a day. Most of it was preventable. Believe whatever helps you sleep at night but here in the real world this is a catastrophe by any measure.
Why did many countries with the strictest measures have the worst results and vis versa?? Italy, Spain, France, UK, NYC all locked down and wore masks and they ended up with the highest death rates in the world. South Korea, Taiwan and Japan never locked down yet they have among the lowest death rates. Finland, Norway never wore masks and had a miniscule death rate. Alomst as if there is nothing anyone could have done to control its spread. But it's all controllable and preventable according to you.

BUT there is a very strong correlation with obesity. The less obese a society is the less effects they had. Perhaps THAT should be the narrative. Get fat and abuse your body and bad things happen.
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South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan a) have prior institutional memory dealing with pandemics because of SARS, etc. b) had no stupid f-word culture wars to fight over masks, etc. c) most importantly had mass testing rolled out almost immediately and tons of resources dedicated to contact tracing. We had none of those things. We could have avoided lockdowns if we had committed to mass testing and contact tracing very early but... let's just say we didn't. Norway and Finland had strict lockdowns beginning in mid-March. Go ahead and think epidemiology isn't a science, whatever man.

Edited to add - the places you list that had the worst outbreaks were far too late ordering distancing measures. The UK famously decided they were going to do nothing to curb spread in hopes of attaining herd immunity only to reverse course after they realized that was going to kill many thousands. That's what Sweden basically did too and their numbers were way worse than the other Nordic countries. This information is not hard to find. I just don't know how you can look at the available information and shrug your shoulders and say "man, looks like it's just random!"
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WYO1016 wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:10 am I'm starting to think that Burman has been laying the pipe to ragtimejoe1's wife
Insults are the last resort of fools with a crumbling position.
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Cowduck wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:41 pm South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan a) have prior institutional memory dealing with pandemics because of SARS, etc. b) had no stupid f##k[#] culture wars to fight over masks, etc. c) most importantly had mass testing rolled out almost immediately and tons of resources dedicated to contact tracing. We had none of those things. We could have avoided lockdowns if we had committed to mass testing and contact tracing very early but... let's just say we didn't. Norway and Finland had strict lockdowns beginning in mid-March. Go ahead and think epidemiology isn't a science, whatever man.

Edited to add - the places you list that had the worst outbreaks were far too late ordering distancing measures. The UK famously decided they were going to do nothing to curb spread in hopes of attaining herd immunity only to reverse course after they realized that was going to kill many thousands. That's what Sweden basically did too and their numbers were way worse than the other Nordic countries. This information is not hard to find. I just don't know how you can look at the available information and shrug your shoulders and say "man, looks like it's just random!"
The Asian countries mentioned have conducted a tiny fraction of the tests done in Europe or North America. They didn't do mass testing. So it was the masks that saved Asian countries, but lock down that saved the Nordic countries? Guess there's more than one way to skin a cat? It's very scientific, you know. imo natural T-cell immunity and not being fat and/or old are far and away the biggest factors not the economy-killing infringements on human rights that governments impose.

Belgium, the hardest-hit country in the world, instituted lockdown measures very similar to and at a similar time to Germany, Denmark, Norway, etc. and they ended up with the highest death rate in the world? Why? Since all COVID deaths are preventable what did they do wrong?

If masks are so effective, why is California setting daily records for new cases? Granted not all wear them, but a majority are yet it seems to have zero effect on spread. You'd think the lockdowns combined with masks and whatever contact surveillance they have would be fairly formidable against the virus?? nope. It's marching on unabated.
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You're wrong about Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. It wasn't just masks that saved them. They all used sophisticated data collection, testing, and contact tracing to contain the spread of COVID.

Taiwan had rigorous testing and contact tracing as early as January, plus they have a very advanced medical data collection system. They didn't have to do as many tests in raw numbers because their initial response was so effective:

https://www.darkdaily.com/taiwans-conta ... ory-tests/

South Korea had a similar response:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/trust-tes ... d=70433504

Japan had more limited testing capacity so they compensated with substantial resources in contact tracing early on, working from the understanding that a small percentage of infected people account for a lot of transmission of the virus:

https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/japans- ... 9-testing/

As for Belgium, there is some controversy surrounding their counting method - they are counting deaths in elderly care facilities that don't have a positive test but were suspected of coronavirus in their numbers while other countries are not.

Using California as an example of how masks don't work is not a very scientifically valid claim. There's no data on how widespread mask use is, and their rise in cases coincided with them reopening bars, restaurants, and other businesses for indoor activity.

Another thing to remember about all of these countries that have done a far better job of containing coronavirus (whether it's Nordic countries or Southeast Asian ones) is that they have far better public health infrastructure than the US and far more robust social insurance (both medical care and paid sick leave) than the US, but ya'll ain't ready for that conversation.
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