Is Saturday @ AF a must win if we want to go bowling?

The MWC has 5 bowl tie-ins. Hawaii, Boise, SDSU and AF all have 8 or more wins so they are going. That leaves Wyoming and Nevada at 7 wins currently. usu has 6 wins. That's 7 teams bowl eligible.

usu plays New Mexico and will likely win.
Nevada plays UNLV and will likely win.

If usu and Nevada win and we lose that gives Nevada more wins than us and usu the same amount and they beat us. If we don't win then it doesn't look pretty. Maybe there are some other scenarios I'm not considering.

Must? No. Helpful? Yes.

We need Utah to beat Colorado on Saturday. That will open up a pac-12 slot to the mwc.

There's a couple of other things that would be helpful:
- Boise goes to Cottom BowlC
- TCU loses to West Virginia
- Oregon S rate loses to Oregon
- Michigan state loses to Maryland

Here's a good synopsis of openings:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-bowl-projections-team-eligibility-tracker-for-2019-20-bowl-games/

We also need Hawaii to be in Hawaii bowl which would give us one extra spot. This year Hawaii bowl was supposed to be BYU against aac with BYU taking mw spot. But according to mw message board back in mw media days they said it would be BYU vs Hawaii if Hawaii became bowl eligible and not selected for a better bowl.

So I think if Vegas doesn't select Hawaii they will stay home in their own bowl.

That still leaves Vegas, Boise, New Mexico, Arizona and armed forces bowls then for the rest of us.

If Boise gets cotton that helps. If Utah beat Colorado I think pac12 is short and likely opens up cheeze-it bowl which mw is backup in.

Finally if just overall there are not enough 6 win teams or better to fill all the games then we are guaranteed a spot. There is a rule that a 5-7 team can't be taken with any 6-6 or better teams left out. So if there are not enough 6 win we are guaranteed a bowl no matter what even without the mw having enough bowl tie ins.

If I understand correctly, the NCAA rule is that all 7 win teams must be put in bowls before any 6 win teams get in. I don't believe a 7 win team has ever been left out because of this.

Poke in New England said:

If I understand correctly, the NCAA rule is that all 7 win teams must be put in bowls before any 6 win teams get in. I don't believe a 7 win team has ever been left out because of this.

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I know it was a different era, but I remember a 10 win Tiller coached team not getting a bowl invite. Hopefully you are right on there being a rule to prevent a 7 win team from staying home and allowing a 6 win team in.

CowboyNV said:

Poke in New England said:

If I understand correctly, the NCAA rule is that all 7 win teams must be put in bowls before any 6 win teams get in. I don't believe a 7 win team has ever been left out because of this.

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I know it was a different era, but I remember a 10 win Tiller coached team not getting a bowl invite. Hopefully you are right on there being a rule to prevent a 7 win team from staying home and allowing a 6 win team in.

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That 10 win season was in 1996.

Wyokie said:

CowboyNV said:

Poke in New England said:

If I understand correctly, the NCAA rule is that all 7 win teams must be put in bowls before any 6 win teams get in. I don't believe a 7 win team has ever been left out because of this.

Click to expand...

I know it was a different era, but I remember a 10 win Tiller coached team not getting a bowl invite. Hopefully you are right on there being a rule to prevent a 7 win team from staying home and allowing a 6 win team in.

Click to expand...

That 10 win season was in 1996.

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What is the last time prior to 2019 that Wyoming went undefeated at home?

OrediggerPoke said:

Wyokie said:

CowboyNV said:

Poke in New England said:

If I understand correctly, the NCAA rule is that all 7 win teams must be put in bowls before any 6 win teams get in. I don't believe a 7 win team has ever been left out because of this.

Click to expand...

I know it was a different era, but I remember a 10 win Tiller coached team not getting a bowl invite. Hopefully you are right on there being a rule to prevent a 7 win team from staying home and allowing a 6 win team in.

Click to expand...

That 10 win season was in 1996.

Click to expand...

What is the last time prior to 2019 that Wyoming went undefeated at home?

Click to expand...

We were undefeated at home in the 2016 regular season. Our only home loss was the MWC championship game.

OrediggerPoke said:

Wyokie said:

CowboyNV said:

Poke in New England said:

If I understand correctly, the NCAA rule is that all 7 win teams must be put in bowls before any 6 win teams get in. I don't believe a 7 win team has ever been left out because of this.

Click to expand...

I know it was a different era, but I remember a 10 win Tiller coached team not getting a bowl invite. Hopefully you are right on there being a rule to prevent a 7 win team from staying home and allowing a 6 win team in.

Click to expand...

That 10 win season was in 1996.

Click to expand...

What is the last time prior to 2019 that Wyoming went undefeated at home?

Click to expand...

Yep.

bladerunnr said:

OrediggerPoke said:

Wyokie said:

CowboyNV said:

Poke in New England said:

If I understand correctly, the NCAA rule is that all 7 win teams must be put in bowls before any 6 win teams get in. I don't believe a 7 win team has ever been left out because of this.

Click to expand...

I know it was a different era, but I remember a 10 win Tiller coached team not getting a bowl invite. Hopefully you are right on there being a rule to prevent a 7 win team from staying home and allowing a 6 win team in.

Click to expand...

That 10 win season was in 1996.

Click to expand...

What is the last time prior to 2019 that Wyoming went undefeated at home?

Click to expand...

We were undefeated at home in the 2016 regular season. Our only home loss was the MWC championship game.

Click to expand...

I count that as a home loss thus 1996 was the time we went undefeated at the WAR.

Just did a rough count... there are 78 bowl slots, 73 bowl eligible teams, 19 of those are at 6 wins, there's another 14 teams at 5 wins.

6 win teams don't get in over 7 win teams.

WestWYOPoke said:

Just did a rough count... there are 78 bowl slots, 73 bowl eligible teams, 19 of those are at 6 wins, there's another 14 teams at 5 wins.

6 win teams don't get in over 7 win teams.

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6 win teams get in over 7 win teams if the bowl is affiliated with the conference. I believe the rule only applies to at-large berths.

But none of this matters because Wyoming will best Air Force and an 8 win team isn’t staying home.

OrediggerPoke said:

WestWYOPoke said:

Just did a rough count... there are 78 bowl slots, 73 bowl eligible teams, 19 of those are at 6 wins, there's another 14 teams at 5 wins.

6 win teams don't get in over 7 win teams.

Click to expand...

6 win teams get in over 7 win teams if the bowl is affiliated with the conference. I believe the rule only applies to at-large berths.

But none of this matters because Wyoming will best Air Force and an 8 win team isn’t staying home.

Click to expand...

However five win teams don't go in ahead of any 6+ win team regardless of conference tie ins. So of the 14 teams at 5 wins, if 4 or get a win this weekend then we are for sure guaranteed a spot as it would mean at least 1 bowl somewhere would be getting a 5-7 team.

Win or it's the Kohler Toilet Bowl in Duluth or the Ice Bowl in Fairbanks.

It'll help keep us outta a Potato Bowl on Jan3. But its not a needed, nor will it happen our guys energy wont be there for AFA and they may shellack us at the Academy!! They scare me with our QB duo, now watch if Nebraska wins a goes 6-6 they get one or even if they lose a 5-7 got them in in years past. Unfortunately

stymeman said:

It'll help keep us outta a Potato Bowl on Jan3. But its not a needed, nor will it happen our guys energy wont be there for AFA and they may shellack us at the Academy!! They scare me with our QB duo, now watch if Nebraska wins a goes 6-6 they get one or even if they lose a 5-7 got them in in years past. Unfortunately

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5-7 teams can only get in if there aren't enough 6+ win teams. Doesn't matter if it's a program like Nebraska or not. 2014 Texas State was the only 7-5 team since the playoff started to be left out of a bowl.

CowboyNV said:

I know it was a different era, but I remember a 10 win Tiller coached team not getting a bowl invite. Hopefully you are right on there being a rule to prevent a 7 win team from staying home and allowing a 6 win team in.

Click to expand...

That was a VERY different era. There were a grand total of 18 bowl games. That being said, there's no way Wyoming should have been left out. Here's what that year's slate looked like:


Date Bowl Pts Pts Notes
1997-01-02 Sugar Bowl Florida (3) 52 Florida State (1) 20 New Orleans, LA
1997-01-01 Citrus Bowl Tennessee (9) 48 Northwestern (11) 28 Orlando, FL
1997-01-01 Cotton Bowl BYU (5) 19 Kansas State (14) 15 Dallas, TX
1997-01-01 Fiesta Bowl Penn State (7) 38 Texas (20) 15 Tempe, AZ
1997-01-01 Gator Bowl N Carolina (12) 20 West Virginia (25) 13 Jacksonville, FL
1997-01-01 Outback Bowl Alabama (16) 17 Michigan (15) 14 Tampa, FL
1997-01-01 Rose Bowl Ohio State (4) 20 Arizona State (2) 17 Pasadena, CA
1996-12-31 Independence Auburn 32 Army (24) 29 Shreveport, LA
1996-12-31 Orange Bowl Nebraska (6) 41 Virginia Tech (10) 21 Miami, FL
1996-12-31 Sun Bowl Stanford 38 Michigan State 0 El Paso, TX
1996-12-30 Holiday Bowl Colorado (8) 33 Washington (13) 21 San Diego, CA
1996-12-29 Alamo Bowl Iowa (21) 27 Texas Tech 0 San Antonio, TX
1996-12-28 Peach Bowl LSU (17) 10 Clemson 7 Atlanta, GA
1996-12-27 Carquest Bowl Miami (FL) (19) 31 Virginia 21 Miami, FL
1996-12-27 Copper Bowl Wisconsin 38 Utah 10 Tucson, AZ
1996-12-27 Liberty Bowl Syracuse (23) 30 Houston 17 Memphis, TN
1996-12-25 Aloha Bowl Navy 42 California 38 Honolulu, HI
1996-12-19 Las Vegas Bowl Nevada 18 Ball State 15 Las Vegas, NV

It was a CRIME that we got left out that year. Ended the season ranked #22 and no bowl invite?! Utah got invited FFS. The only other top 25 team left out was Notre Dame, at #18. This also happened to be the last straw to break the Bowl Alliance and build the BCS.

I don't think a 7-win team has ever been left out of a bowl game, have they?

Great results:
Nebraska and TCU lost, meaning both are 5-7

Good result:
Appalachian State smashing Troy right now

Not great result:
Mississippi State beat Mississippi
Kent State beat Eastern Michigan

Nebraska an TCU are big because the mw are backups for two of their bowls

As of right now there are 5 open spots, with 7 teams that could fill them:
Boston College (at Pitt)
Colorado (at Utah)
Oregon State (at Oregon)
North Carolina (at NC State)
Michigan State (vs Maryland)
...
UL Monroe (at Louisiana)
Liberty (vs. New Mexico State)

So, if two of those teams lose, we should be guaranteed a spot.

I would say we should be in no matter what because we should get in before UL Monroe or Liberty, but that would require politicking on Thompson's part, and we all saw where that got us last year.