The Bowl season is underway with three Mountain West Schools already playing their bowl games. Wyoming is the second to last Mountain West team to take the field in the Arizona Bowl vs Georgia State. All season long I have given you my college football betting odds and tips and we have been quite successful with an 11-2 record on the season with my bet of the week. The following is my analysis of the Cowboys vs the Panthers match-up if you want to have a little Vegas action for the Pokes trip to Tucson.

Points Total: Under

Wyoming: 3-9
Georgia State: 6-6

It should come as no surprise the under in the points total has hit more often than not for Wyoming this season. Wyoming has a top 25 defense with All-American linebacker Logan Wilson leading the way with his tackling and interceptions. The Pokes are 11th in the nation in terms of scoring defense (allowing just 17.8 points per game) and an offense that ranks just 96th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game. This has lead to Wyoming’s games hitting the over just 3 times in 12 games. Georgia State, on the other hand, is almost the exact opposite with an offense ranked 42nd with 32.4 points per game and a defense that allows 36.1 points per game for a 120th national ranking. The offense vs defense for both teams is an interesting match-up with bad on bad and good on good in the Arizona Bowl.

Oct 19, 2019; Laramie, WY, USA; Wyoming Cowboys linebacker Logan Wilson (30) against the New Mexico Lobos at War Memorial Stadium. (Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-UW Media-Athletics)

Against The Spread

Wyoming: 7-5
Georgia State: 6-4-2

Both schools have a winning record versus the spread this season. Currently, the spread sits at -7 in favor of Wyoming. This season Wyoming has a 4-2 record against the spread as the favorite and Georgia State has a 5-3-1 record as the underdog against the spread. Looking at these numbers, both schools have experience winning in the situation they enter this bowl game in. It makes for another interesting dynamic and we will see who handles their favorite/underdog status the best.

Arizona Bowl History

DateWinning TeamLosing TeamATS WinnerOver/Under
12/29/15Nevada 28Colorado State 23-4.5, NEV56.5, UNDER
12/30/16Air Force 45South Alabama 21-14.5, AFA54, OVER
12/29/17New Mexico State 26Utah State 20 (OT)+5.5, NMST61.5, UNDER
12/29/18Nevada 16Arkansas State 13 (OT)-1.5, NEV59.5, UNDER
12/31/19Georgia State vs. Wyoming-7 WY, ??48.5, ??

Mountain West Record: 3-1

Favorite: 3-1 ATS and 3-1 SU

2015 Under, 2016 Over, 2017, 2018

In this rather new bowl game, the Mountain West has a 3-0 record versus the Sun Belt and 1-1 versus the Mountain West with the all-Mountain West match-up in 2015. Wyoming will be looking to move that record to 4-0 versus the Sun Belt. Past numbers say the Pokes should have a good chance as the favorite in the previous four versions of the Arizona Bowl has won the game and covered the spread 3 out of 4 times.

Betting Verdict

Picking Wyoming on the money line or against the spread probably doesn’t have much value in it. The current Wyoming money line is at 1.385 odds while the fact that Georgia State has been excellent in covering spreads including five outright wins as an underdog makes picking Wyoming with either option a risky proposition.

QB Levi Williams should be taking the bulk of the snaps for the Pokes at QB in the Arizona Bowl (Photo Credit: UW Athletics)

If you are to bet this game the under which is currently at 48.5 points at 1.9 odds is probably your best option. Especially since true freshman QB Levi Williams should receive most of the playing time since Tyler Vander Waal announced his intention to transfer. Williams has not shown through an entire game that he cam efficiently pass the ball and Wyoming offensive coordinator Brent Vigen has struggled to find answers in the passing game before and after the talents of Josh Allen. The Wyoming defense should be able to do what they do to pin down the Panthers while the Wyoming offense scores somewhere around the 24-27 point mark for an estimated total of 45 points in this game.

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