Overlooking “The War” on game day – Photo courtesy of www.collegian.com
University of Wyoming football is right around the corner. It’s the time of year when we try to budget a little more to wager every now and again. Here’s an in-depth look at Wyoming’s history against the spread. The official spread hasn’t been published yet so I’m providing this as more of a guideline. In the first year under Coach Craig Bohl, the Cowboys finished 4-8 straight up and against the spread. Let’s take a peek into the past.
History tends to repeat itself. Over the past 5 years, the Cowboys have a 4-1 record straight up with an average margin of victory of 9.25 points. In that same time, they are a measly 1-4 against the spread in true home openers. The average spread has been Wyoming -14.2, providing a pretty good indication of where the line could fall. The numbers don’t lie, this bet looks to this point isn’t making a whole lot of sense.
Each of the last 5 seasons, Wyoming has played an FCS foe. Their combined record against these opponents is 4-1 (thank you Colby Kirkegaard). In those games, the Cowboys have had an average margin of victory of only 8.2 points. Their record against the spread in these games is 1-4 with an average spread of 15.5 points. The only time they covered was in 2013, where they covered the 27.5 point spread by half a point. Again, all historical signs are pointing to hold onto your money.
Gambling always comes down to gut. If you feel like you should do it, then do it. General rule of thumb is if it makes more than 60%, it’s safe to say that’s a fair bet. All the statistical data shows the Pokes, unless the spread is only single digits, are not going to cover this week. As the Cowboys develop into the season, they should be able to keep games close, at least making it interesting from a wagering standpoint.
Lock of the week
Kentucky (-17) vs UL Monroe – Kentucky is 5-0 against the spread in home openers over the past 5 seasons. In that same time frame, they have an average margin of victory over Non-P5 opponents of 24.47 points. Furthermore, they are unveiling a new stadium with a new offensive coordinator, Shannon Dawson, who loves to put points on the board.