I think it’s time for a fresh start. This year hasn’t gone quite as Wyoming fans would hope but there is still reason to believe. It looks like this is a down year for the Mountain West Conference, so there is hope yet. The Cowboys are still looking for their first “W” on the season, but picked up some much needed confidence after a trip to Pullman, WA to face the Washington State Cougars. For the first time in the 2015 season they were able to cover the spread. This week, the Cowboys return home to War Memorial Stadium. Can they continue the momentum and cover again?
As of this morning, the Pokes are 3.5 point underdogs. Given their performance so far this season, this number shouldn’t be too surprising. Wyoming has failed to keep any games this season within single digits. The offense, particularly the play of Brian Hill, has improved each week. If they are able to stay on the field with efficient ball movement and assignment sound defense, we should have a good shot this week. New Mexico this year is 2-1 ATS, 1-1 when they are favored. They started with an impressive win, but haven’t shown much sense.
Historically, we have been horrible against the Lobos. Over the past 5 seasons we are 1-4 ATS. Last year was the only time we were not favored in those last 5 years, again being a 3.5 point dog. We didn’t cover then either, losing 30-36. In their last 5 true MWC openers, the Cowboys are 5-0 against the spread. In the last 5 MWC home opening games, we are 4-1, the only loss coming to New Mexico in 2013. When it times to show the conference what we can do, the team tends to step up for a game or two.
So far this year, I’m 2-1 picking Wyoming ATS. This is a big-time “show me” game. I like the improvement we have been seeing from week to week and hope we can sustain it. I don’t think it is enough as our defense continues to give up chunk yardage way too often. I’m hoping to eat crow on this one later in the week, but my advice would be to stay away from putting money on this one. My prediction? Lobos win in a shoot-out, Lobos 35 Cowboys 28.
PS – The over/under for this game is set at 56, Oddshark.com has it as a consensus “over” pick, 97% of money being put on it. That’s a quick way to win some money if you ask me.
“Not so” Lock of the week (1-2)
I was happy to pick up my first win with my lock of the week. Let’s keep the momentum rolling with the Tennessee Volunteers heading into “The Swamp” to take on the Florida Gators. Tennessee is a program on the rise and coach Butch Jones will have his team ready. First year head coach Jim McElwain is still working out the kinks with his team and they have been less than impressive. Tennessee is a 1.5 point favorite, look for them to cover this week.