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Alright ladies and gentlemen, its that time again. I really enjoyed this topic last season and am very excited to get it going again this year.

For now, I will only be showing the Positive Plays Per Minute Played stats from last season. I am working on spreadsheets for Linear Weight Player Efficiency Rating which is a super in depth player rating per minute played. This calculation has proven to be much more in-depth than I was expecting and is taking me longer than I want. I will have this up no later than the start of conference (hopefully sooner).

I am also working on a spreadsheet for Individual Offensive Rating which measures an individual player's efficiency at producing points for the offense. Points can be produced through field goals, free throws, assists, and offensive rebounds.

I look forward to everyones input and hope you all enjoy this information as much I enjoy working on it. With that said, here is the PPPMP after last night:

1. Dalton - 0.93
2. Herndon - 0.70
3. James - 0.69
4. Kelley - 0.57
5. Adams - 0.50
6. Redding - 0.46
7. Maldonado - 0.38
8. Jones - 0.32
9. Averbuck - 0.00
10. Mueller - 0.00
11. Naughton - 0.00
12. Aka Gorski - DNP
13. Mack - DNP
14. Moemeka - DNP
15. Thompson - DNP

Nice! I like to form my opinions and validate them through this statistic. Thanks for doing this

Is this subtracted from some type of "Negative plays per minute" or is this only looking at positive plays?

This current iteration gives positive marks for Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, and Blocks while also subtracting for Turnovers. They are all weighted equally. The new stat sheets I'm working will weight each in their own specific manner and dive deeper into who is helping this team the most.

Nice! Enjoyed these last year! Appreciate the effort you go to working on this stuff

As of 11/21

1. Dalton - 0.87
2. Redding - 0.85
3. James - 0.74
4. Adams - 0.71
5. Herndon - 0.59
6. Moemeka - 0.57
7. Kelley - 0.49
8. Aka Gorski - 0.39
9. Maldonado - 0.35
10. Jones - 0.28
11. Averbuck - 0.11
12. Naughton - 0.00

I will be leaving Mack and Thompson off until either of them registers minutes.

As of 11/28

1. James - 0.81
2. Dalton - 0.77
3. Herndon - 0.68
4. Adams - 0.60
5. Moemeka - 0.58
6. Kelley - 0.46
7. Aka Gorski - 0.45
8. Redding - 0.40
9. Jones - 0.37
10. Maldonado - 0.36
11. Naughton - 0.18
12. Averbuck - 0.13
13. Mueller - 0.08

Interesting to see Maldonado so low. When he’s out there it looks like he plays a good game

laxwyo wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:07 pm Interesting to see Maldonado so low. When he’s out there it looks like he plays a good game

Agree that he looks good and is a good defender for a freshman, but his offensive game is really lacking from what I've seen. He's going to be good once the offense comes around

LanderPoke wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:21 pm

laxwyo wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:07 pm Interesting to see Maldonado so low. When he’s out there it looks like he plays a good game

Agree that he looks good and is a good defender for a freshman, but his offensive game is really lacking from what I've seen. He's going to be good once the offense comes around

The one that surprises me is Kelley. He has played way better than I expected him to but it appears as if the reduced scoring and increased turnovers are hurting his overall value.

Was really dreading this current iteration. That DU game was so ugly. But the sun came up, and the show must go on!

As of 12/01
1. James - 0.85
2. Dalton - 0.77
3. Herndon - 0.66
4. Adams - 0.61
5. Moemeka - 0.59
6. Kelley - 0.50
7. Aka Gorski - 0.43
8. Redding - 0.40
9. Jones - 0.37
10. Maldonado - 0.37
11. Naughton - 0.18
12. Averbuck - 0.13
13. Mueller - 0.08





I hope to have the new stat breakdowns next week. I still need to iron out the formula on one of them and ensure its functioning accurately. But be looking for that soon!

Hello All!

Please forgive my tardiness in updating this post. Its been a crazy couple weeks and I have been sick part of it as well.

Here is the current PPPMP information.

As of 12/13/17

1. James - 0.90
2. Dalton - 0.79
3. Herndon - 0.73
4. Adams - 0.66
5. Moemeka - 0.60
6. Kelley - 0.44
7. Naughton - 0.44
8. Aka Gorski - 0.39
9. Redding - 0.38
10. Maldonado - 0.37
11. Jones - 0.27
12. Averbuck - 0.16
13. Mueller - 0.07





Interesting to see Aka Gorksi steadily declining... I am all for letting seniors play but it would be really nice to actually see him contribute....


Also, going forward, this post will have the PPPMP we are used to seeing. It will also have the new metrics Linear Weight PER and Individual Offensive Rating. I will break these out into their own posts for this first time to explain each metric and some of the weighting involved. Here we go!

I'd like to see a lineup of the top 5 (JJ, Herndon, Dalton, Adams and Momeka) get some extended minutes

Linear Weight Player Efficiency Rating (PER)

PER was originally developed by statistician John Hollinger. It is very complex and quite in depth. Linear Weight PER is very similar in its approach but is used for its simplicity and streamlined formula. Where this one differs from my PPPMP is that the stats this formula takes into account are individually weighted. Certain stats will impact the rating more or less than others. PER and LWPER are considered the best statistical measure of a players impact on their team's performance. For the purposes of this analysis, I will be using LWPER.

If anyone is interested in the formula and weights, I can provide that but its long and makes most peoples head hurt to look at.

I don't see this stat as widely adopted in the college game for some reason. But in the NBA league averages are in the low 20s. Elite players will be as high as 28 while the other end of the spectrum can be much lower. I would assume, on the whole, college basketball player averages will be lower, with elite level players being in the high teens to mid 20s and most MWC players being in the low to mid teens. The best players on each team will probably be approaching the 20s but I wouldnt expect to see a whole to of guys on a lot teams bumping that high.

The biggest takeaway I am getting from this one is damn we need better performance from out Guards. Redding, Kelley, and Aka Gorski are not pulling the same weight as our forwards.

As of 12/13 (Reflects all games to this point)

1. Dalton - 19.87
2. Herndon - 18.67
3. James - 18.23
4. Adams - 14.26
5. Moemeka - 12.8
6. Naughton - 9.68
7. Kelley - 9.32
8. Redding - 7.53
9. Aka Gorski - 6.19
10. Maldonado
11. Jones - -.041
12. Mueller - -0.73
13. Averbuck - -2.21

Individual Offensive Rating

This metric has kicked my excel ass for the better part of a year. The formula looks innocuous upon first glance, Individual Offensive Rating = Points Produced / Individual Possessions. This doesnt look scary or complex at all. But the pieces needed to produce the individual possessions stat nearly led me to alcoholism. But we got there. Just know both Points Produced and Individual Possessions take into account all of a players offensive statistics, weights them, runs a number of complex calculations on them, and spits out this number.

Big picture, this stat is telling us that for every 100 possession a player has, he will produce X amount of points. Individual possessions is made up of four components: scoring possessions, missed field goal possessions, missed free throw possessions, and turnovers (TOV):

If you have questions about this, don't hesitate to bring it up.

I have checked, doubled checked, then checked again that my formulas are working correctly. I was quite surprised by a number of these figures. First and foremost the little guy leading the way.

As of 12/13

1. Kelley - 133.46
2. Herndon - 125.39
3. Dalton - 123.92
4. Naughton - 122.85
5. Aka Gorski - 112.93
6. Adams - 110.33
7. Moemeka - 104.97
8. James - 90.19
9. Redding - 90.07
10. Jones - 78.73
11. Maldonado - 69.78
12. Mueller - 0
13. Averbuck - 0



I am really torn. Do we give Kelley the freedom to shoot more? What is going on with James? Naughton's position is probably just a fluke. I am very interested to watch this as the season progresses.

excellent! Thanks for doing this

Very interesting. Thanks for posting these

Man alive!! Good work sir!

Is LWPER like PER in that there is a set number for average? I know PER is 15, so I'd assume it's the same just with a different formula?

Very cool, thanks for putting in the time that this requires.