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Mountain West - ATS Records not aligned with SU Marks
by Jeff Frank, Sports Analyst
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Even though the Mountain West Conference WC has inched closer to the major six conferences, its ATS numbers have not followed suit. The league finished 22-12 SU out-of-conference in '08 but covered just half of those 34 games. San Diego State was the only team to finish with a better ATS record (2-1) than SU (1-2).
The MWC has improved year-by-year against BCS clubs going from 4-9 SU three years ago to 7-11 in '07 and finally, a very impressive 10-6 mark last season. Still, the ATS records fell from 8-4-1 ATS (65%) in '06 to 9-7 (56%) last year.
The conference champ has gone undefeated in league play every year since '04, so this year's winner could get another crack at a BCS bowl game.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
9) NEW MEXICO - Two years ago, the Lobos went 5-3 in the MWC but were outscored and outgained in league play. Last year, they were on the positive side in both categories but finished 2-6. They are 11-6 ATS off a SU loss the last three years.
Offense - New head coach Mike Locksley installed the no-huddle offense this spring after the Lobos averaged just 21 ppg in '08. Expect more emphasis on the passing game, which is a complete departure from last year's 65-35 run/pass split. Quarterback Donovan Porterie should rebound in the new up- tempo scheme after missing most of last season.
Defense - Not only do the Lobos return just three starters, they'll switch to a 4-3 defense after years of the 3-3-5. Only one player on the two-deep defensive line depth chart has started a collegiate game. Furthermore, the defense is not nearly as big and strong as last year's unit that held the opposition to 17 ppg in MWC play.
Outlook - Massive system changes on both sides of the ball along with only nine returning starters, will limit New Mexico to a 3-9 record, 2-6 in the conference.
8) COLORADO STATE - The Rams won four of six games decided by a TD or less en route to a 7-6 season and their first bowl victory since '01. They are 9-3 ATS off a SU win over the last three years.
Offense - Colorado State lost two key contributors in QB Billy Farris and RB Gartrell Johnson. Farris threw for 2,934 yards, while Johnson finished 13th nationally in rushing with 113.5 ypg. Head coach Steve Fairchild was not pleased with the progress of the running game in the spring so even though the Rams possess the most experienced offensive line in the country, the offense will not be as potent as the previous two years.
Defense - The CSU defense finished last in the nation in sacks and 118th in tackles for loss. The Rams were also last in the conference against the pass, and allowed 230 rushing ypg on 6.0 ypc over the second half of the season. This year, they'll be without three of their four leading tacklers and the entire front seven returns only 26 career starts.
Outlook - Even though Colorado State had its finest season in five years, the team was outscored in every single quarter. The Rams will win just three games, two in the MWC.
7) SAN DIEGO STATE - The Aztecs have not had a winning season since 1998. Could they turn it around in Brady Hoke's first year at the helm? San Diego State is 1-5 ATS off a SU win the last three campaigns.
Offense - The offense came into last season with just three returning starters and the results were predictable - 19 ppg, 73 rushing ypg (117th nationally) and only 24 first-quarter points the entire season. This year will be different, with eight starters coming back and sophomore QB Ryan Lindley with a year under his belt. The o-line improved as the season went on, allowing just three sacks the final five games (zero vs. BYU and Utah) after giving up 18 in the first seven.
Defense - The Aztecs ranked last in league play in scoring, rushing and passing. Nine different players started on the line, causing SDSU to finish 118th nationally vs. the run. Former New Mexico head coach Rocky Long is the new defensive coordinator, so the unit could be one of the nation's most improved, despite losing its top two tacklers.
Outlook - Don't be shocked if the Aztecs win six games after logging just two in '08. They will also grab three conference victories for the third time in four years.
6) WYOMING - The Cowboys (4-8) finished last nationally in scoring with 12.7 ppg. They have also been one of the top teams in the country to bet against with a 4-18-1 ATS record over the last two seasons, including 1-14-1 in conference play.
Offense - Eight teams in the Big 12 scored more points in their first two games than Wyoming did in its initial eight contests. Twenty-seven turnovers in eight league games also impaired the offense. But there is some hope despite losing the team's first 1,000-yard rusher (Devin Moore) in 10 years. Former Missouri offensive coordinator Dave Christensen takes over as head coach and brings with him the no-huddle, spread offense. Look for Karsten Sween to become the most improved quarterback in the country.
Defense - Wyoming finished 38th nationally in total defense but 73rd in scoring. Turnovers and poor special teams play allowed opposing offenses to score almost at will without having to march the length of the field. Still, this is a very underrated defense that allowed just 92 rushing yards per game on 3.2 ypc in the six games the Cowboys were a -2 or better in turnover differential. With eight starters returning and 10 of the top 13 tacklers coming back, this will be the team's best defense in years.
Outlook - The Cowboys cut down on their turnovers and finish 4-4 in the MWC with six overall wins.
5) UNLV - After four consecutive two-win seasons, the Rebels "exploded" for five last year and would have been bowl-eligible if not for a 21-point loss at San Diego State in the finale. UNLV is 11-5 ATS as a home underdog over the last four years.
Offense - The Rebels averaged over a TD more per game last year even though they gained fewer yards per contest. Red zone offense was the difference as they finished tied with Ohio State for the top spot in the nation (95%) after scoring at a 70% clip in '07. Omar Clayton was third in the MWC with a 140.5 QB rating while Ryan Wolfe is 900 yards short of becoming the conference's all-time leading receiver. On the downside, the leading rusher must be replaced, and no one seized the starting role in the spring.
Defense - The defense played without seven of its top 10 tacklers from '07 after Star Fuimaono was lost for the season in game two. And for all the offensive red zone success, the "D" gave it all back, allowing scores on 42 of 45 chances en route to a 33 ppg average. The front seven should be much improved with six returning starters, along with Fuimaono, but the secondary loses its top three leading tacklers.
Outlook - The Rebels will not turn things around until they can win conference road games (19 straight defeats). Still, this is their best team in years, so look for seven overall victories and a 4-4 league record.
4) UTAH - The last time the Utes went undefeated, they won just six regular season games the following year. Utah is 36-16 ATS off a SU win the last six years.
Offense - Even though they led the MWC with 39 TDs in league play, the Utes ranked fifth in rushing and third in passing. Now QB Brian Johnson departs after leading Utah to a 20-1 record in his last 21 starts. The "O" also loses its top three pass catchers. There is still plenty of talent on board but a drop-off in production is inevitable.
Defense - Utah ranked 11th nationally vs. the run, allowing 99 ypg on 3.1 ypc. However, those numbers ballooned to 131 ypg on 3.8 ypc in conference play. In addition, the Utes will be without their two starting corners, who combined for 32 pass breakups and 10 interceptions the last two years. The front seven will be solid but not as effective as a season ago.
Outlook - The Utes were very fortunate to win 13 games, as three victories came in the final minute and five were by a touchdown or less. They will not be as lucky this year, so look for just seven "W's" with just four coming in the MWC.
3) AIR FORCE - Troy Calhoun has done a masterful job at Air Force with two straight bowl appearances after a four-year drought. In addition, the Falcons are 12-4 ATS in conference play the last two seasons.
Offense - The offense didn't miss a beat even though the unit came into last year without its top six rushers, the school's all-time leading passer and the top two receivers. The Falcons averaged 27 ppg, only three points shy of '07's numbers. The bulk of the offense returns, so look for them to reach the 30 ppg mark for the fourth time in the last six years.
Defense - Last year's unit allowed 22 ppg despite losing four of its top five tacklers. In addition, only two members of the back eight had started more than four career games. The Falcons do lose leading sack artist Jake Paulson, but eight of his nine sacks came in the first six contests. Calhoun is extremely high on his inside linebackers and safeties, and this "D" has the potential to be the best in his three years at Colorado Springs.
Outlook - Air Force is 17-0 the last two seasons when holding opponents below 30 ppg (0-9 otherwise). Look for the Falcons to post nine victories, five coming in MWC play.
2) BYU - The Cougars had their 16-game winning streak snapped by TCU in mid- October and eventually fell to third place in the conference after losing to Utah. They were 3-9 ATS last year, and just 2-6 ATS in non-conference games the last two seasons.
Offense - BYU ranked 20th in the country in scoring (34 ppg) with Max Hall throwing for 3,957 yards and 35 TDs. The Cougars still turned the ball over 28 times, including seven inside the red zone. Seven starters depart, but the offense should still be strong with Hall, RB Harvey Unga and TE Dennis Pitta back in Provo.
Defense - The Cougars ended up 60th vs. the run and 74th against the pass, but those numbers will improve with seven of the top 11 tacklers coming back. Don't forget, BYU came into last season without six of its top eight, and still allowed just 22 ppg.
Outlook - BYU has the easiest of all MWC schedules with TCU, Utah and Air Force all coming to Provo. However, this team is not as good as last year's squad and will only win five league games and eight overall.
1) TCU - The Horned Frogs' only two losses last year came at Oklahoma and Utah. They outscored their other 11 opponents by a 417-99 count. TCU is 15-4 as a home favorite the last four years.
Offense - They are known for their defense, but the Frogs finished 21st nationally in scoring and 12th in rushing. QB Andy Dalton averaged 237 ypg with 11 TDs in the final six games, and his top two targets return. TCU has won 30 straight games when averaging at least 167 rushing yards per game, and with Joseph Turner back for his senior season, look for that undefeated streak to remain intact at the end of the year.
Defense - It was a magical season for TCU as the defense finished first nationally in total defense and second in scoring. Only four starters return but LB Daryl Washington was the team's fourth leading tackler despite coming off the bench in 11 games, and NT Kelly Griffin comes back after starting all 13 games in '07. Jerry Hughes is the star of the "D" after leading the country in sacks with 15, and the Horned Frogs also boast the most experienced cornerback duo in the country. It will be almost impossible to reproduce last year's numbers, but the defense will still be extremely strong.
Outlook - TCU falls short in its quest for a BCS bowl as Clemson and BYU claim the only two victories over the Frogs.
by Jeff Frank, Sports Analyst
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Even though the Mountain West Conference WC has inched closer to the major six conferences, its ATS numbers have not followed suit. The league finished 22-12 SU out-of-conference in '08 but covered just half of those 34 games. San Diego State was the only team to finish with a better ATS record (2-1) than SU (1-2).
The MWC has improved year-by-year against BCS clubs going from 4-9 SU three years ago to 7-11 in '07 and finally, a very impressive 10-6 mark last season. Still, the ATS records fell from 8-4-1 ATS (65%) in '06 to 9-7 (56%) last year.
The conference champ has gone undefeated in league play every year since '04, so this year's winner could get another crack at a BCS bowl game.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
9) NEW MEXICO - Two years ago, the Lobos went 5-3 in the MWC but were outscored and outgained in league play. Last year, they were on the positive side in both categories but finished 2-6. They are 11-6 ATS off a SU loss the last three years.
Offense - New head coach Mike Locksley installed the no-huddle offense this spring after the Lobos averaged just 21 ppg in '08. Expect more emphasis on the passing game, which is a complete departure from last year's 65-35 run/pass split. Quarterback Donovan Porterie should rebound in the new up- tempo scheme after missing most of last season.
Defense - Not only do the Lobos return just three starters, they'll switch to a 4-3 defense after years of the 3-3-5. Only one player on the two-deep defensive line depth chart has started a collegiate game. Furthermore, the defense is not nearly as big and strong as last year's unit that held the opposition to 17 ppg in MWC play.
Outlook - Massive system changes on both sides of the ball along with only nine returning starters, will limit New Mexico to a 3-9 record, 2-6 in the conference.
8) COLORADO STATE - The Rams won four of six games decided by a TD or less en route to a 7-6 season and their first bowl victory since '01. They are 9-3 ATS off a SU win over the last three years.
Offense - Colorado State lost two key contributors in QB Billy Farris and RB Gartrell Johnson. Farris threw for 2,934 yards, while Johnson finished 13th nationally in rushing with 113.5 ypg. Head coach Steve Fairchild was not pleased with the progress of the running game in the spring so even though the Rams possess the most experienced offensive line in the country, the offense will not be as potent as the previous two years.
Defense - The CSU defense finished last in the nation in sacks and 118th in tackles for loss. The Rams were also last in the conference against the pass, and allowed 230 rushing ypg on 6.0 ypc over the second half of the season. This year, they'll be without three of their four leading tacklers and the entire front seven returns only 26 career starts.
Outlook - Even though Colorado State had its finest season in five years, the team was outscored in every single quarter. The Rams will win just three games, two in the MWC.
7) SAN DIEGO STATE - The Aztecs have not had a winning season since 1998. Could they turn it around in Brady Hoke's first year at the helm? San Diego State is 1-5 ATS off a SU win the last three campaigns.
Offense - The offense came into last season with just three returning starters and the results were predictable - 19 ppg, 73 rushing ypg (117th nationally) and only 24 first-quarter points the entire season. This year will be different, with eight starters coming back and sophomore QB Ryan Lindley with a year under his belt. The o-line improved as the season went on, allowing just three sacks the final five games (zero vs. BYU and Utah) after giving up 18 in the first seven.
Defense - The Aztecs ranked last in league play in scoring, rushing and passing. Nine different players started on the line, causing SDSU to finish 118th nationally vs. the run. Former New Mexico head coach Rocky Long is the new defensive coordinator, so the unit could be one of the nation's most improved, despite losing its top two tacklers.
Outlook - Don't be shocked if the Aztecs win six games after logging just two in '08. They will also grab three conference victories for the third time in four years.
6) WYOMING - The Cowboys (4-8) finished last nationally in scoring with 12.7 ppg. They have also been one of the top teams in the country to bet against with a 4-18-1 ATS record over the last two seasons, including 1-14-1 in conference play.
Offense - Eight teams in the Big 12 scored more points in their first two games than Wyoming did in its initial eight contests. Twenty-seven turnovers in eight league games also impaired the offense. But there is some hope despite losing the team's first 1,000-yard rusher (Devin Moore) in 10 years. Former Missouri offensive coordinator Dave Christensen takes over as head coach and brings with him the no-huddle, spread offense. Look for Karsten Sween to become the most improved quarterback in the country.
Defense - Wyoming finished 38th nationally in total defense but 73rd in scoring. Turnovers and poor special teams play allowed opposing offenses to score almost at will without having to march the length of the field. Still, this is a very underrated defense that allowed just 92 rushing yards per game on 3.2 ypc in the six games the Cowboys were a -2 or better in turnover differential. With eight starters returning and 10 of the top 13 tacklers coming back, this will be the team's best defense in years.
Outlook - The Cowboys cut down on their turnovers and finish 4-4 in the MWC with six overall wins.
5) UNLV - After four consecutive two-win seasons, the Rebels "exploded" for five last year and would have been bowl-eligible if not for a 21-point loss at San Diego State in the finale. UNLV is 11-5 ATS as a home underdog over the last four years.
Offense - The Rebels averaged over a TD more per game last year even though they gained fewer yards per contest. Red zone offense was the difference as they finished tied with Ohio State for the top spot in the nation (95%) after scoring at a 70% clip in '07. Omar Clayton was third in the MWC with a 140.5 QB rating while Ryan Wolfe is 900 yards short of becoming the conference's all-time leading receiver. On the downside, the leading rusher must be replaced, and no one seized the starting role in the spring.
Defense - The defense played without seven of its top 10 tacklers from '07 after Star Fuimaono was lost for the season in game two. And for all the offensive red zone success, the "D" gave it all back, allowing scores on 42 of 45 chances en route to a 33 ppg average. The front seven should be much improved with six returning starters, along with Fuimaono, but the secondary loses its top three leading tacklers.
Outlook - The Rebels will not turn things around until they can win conference road games (19 straight defeats). Still, this is their best team in years, so look for seven overall victories and a 4-4 league record.
4) UTAH - The last time the Utes went undefeated, they won just six regular season games the following year. Utah is 36-16 ATS off a SU win the last six years.
Offense - Even though they led the MWC with 39 TDs in league play, the Utes ranked fifth in rushing and third in passing. Now QB Brian Johnson departs after leading Utah to a 20-1 record in his last 21 starts. The "O" also loses its top three pass catchers. There is still plenty of talent on board but a drop-off in production is inevitable.
Defense - Utah ranked 11th nationally vs. the run, allowing 99 ypg on 3.1 ypc. However, those numbers ballooned to 131 ypg on 3.8 ypc in conference play. In addition, the Utes will be without their two starting corners, who combined for 32 pass breakups and 10 interceptions the last two years. The front seven will be solid but not as effective as a season ago.
Outlook - The Utes were very fortunate to win 13 games, as three victories came in the final minute and five were by a touchdown or less. They will not be as lucky this year, so look for just seven "W's" with just four coming in the MWC.
3) AIR FORCE - Troy Calhoun has done a masterful job at Air Force with two straight bowl appearances after a four-year drought. In addition, the Falcons are 12-4 ATS in conference play the last two seasons.
Offense - The offense didn't miss a beat even though the unit came into last year without its top six rushers, the school's all-time leading passer and the top two receivers. The Falcons averaged 27 ppg, only three points shy of '07's numbers. The bulk of the offense returns, so look for them to reach the 30 ppg mark for the fourth time in the last six years.
Defense - Last year's unit allowed 22 ppg despite losing four of its top five tacklers. In addition, only two members of the back eight had started more than four career games. The Falcons do lose leading sack artist Jake Paulson, but eight of his nine sacks came in the first six contests. Calhoun is extremely high on his inside linebackers and safeties, and this "D" has the potential to be the best in his three years at Colorado Springs.
Outlook - Air Force is 17-0 the last two seasons when holding opponents below 30 ppg (0-9 otherwise). Look for the Falcons to post nine victories, five coming in MWC play.
2) BYU - The Cougars had their 16-game winning streak snapped by TCU in mid- October and eventually fell to third place in the conference after losing to Utah. They were 3-9 ATS last year, and just 2-6 ATS in non-conference games the last two seasons.
Offense - BYU ranked 20th in the country in scoring (34 ppg) with Max Hall throwing for 3,957 yards and 35 TDs. The Cougars still turned the ball over 28 times, including seven inside the red zone. Seven starters depart, but the offense should still be strong with Hall, RB Harvey Unga and TE Dennis Pitta back in Provo.
Defense - The Cougars ended up 60th vs. the run and 74th against the pass, but those numbers will improve with seven of the top 11 tacklers coming back. Don't forget, BYU came into last season without six of its top eight, and still allowed just 22 ppg.
Outlook - BYU has the easiest of all MWC schedules with TCU, Utah and Air Force all coming to Provo. However, this team is not as good as last year's squad and will only win five league games and eight overall.
1) TCU - The Horned Frogs' only two losses last year came at Oklahoma and Utah. They outscored their other 11 opponents by a 417-99 count. TCU is 15-4 as a home favorite the last four years.
Offense - They are known for their defense, but the Frogs finished 21st nationally in scoring and 12th in rushing. QB Andy Dalton averaged 237 ypg with 11 TDs in the final six games, and his top two targets return. TCU has won 30 straight games when averaging at least 167 rushing yards per game, and with Joseph Turner back for his senior season, look for that undefeated streak to remain intact at the end of the year.
Defense - It was a magical season for TCU as the defense finished first nationally in total defense and second in scoring. Only four starters return but LB Daryl Washington was the team's fourth leading tackler despite coming off the bench in 11 games, and NT Kelly Griffin comes back after starting all 13 games in '07. Jerry Hughes is the star of the "D" after leading the country in sacks with 15, and the Horned Frogs also boast the most experienced cornerback duo in the country. It will be almost impossible to reproduce last year's numbers, but the defense will still be extremely strong.
Outlook - TCU falls short in its quest for a BCS bowl as Clemson and BYU claim the only two victories over the Frogs.
